Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co (002461) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 19.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from ¥6.10 (bear) to ¥10.71 (bull), base ¥8.54. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.06 – ¥11.96 · fair‑value band ¥6.10 – ¥10.71 · the ¥8.69 price screens above the ¥8.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co (002461) currently trades at ¥8.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.54, implying the stock looks roughly 1.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co generated revenue of 5.9B CNY at a net margin of 15.6%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 5.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥6.10 (bear case) to ¥10.71 (bull case); at ¥8.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -2%, 002461 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (¥7.37) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd. processes and sells beer and beverages in China. The company is involved in yeast feed sales and leasing catering services, as well as offers packaging materials. It offers beer products under the Zhujiang Draft, Zhujiang, and Supra brands.
Full company description
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd. processes and sells beer and beverages in China. The company is involved in yeast feed sales and leasing catering services, as well as offers packaging materials. It offers beer products under the Zhujiang Draft, Zhujiang, and Supra brands. Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd was founded in 1985 and is based in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co reported revenue of ¥5.9B in FY2025 versus ¥4.5B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥903M in FY2025, compounding +10.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €73.62 | €41.60 | -43% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 6,060 ARS | -57% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €77.24 | €65.06 | -16% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $135.72 | $177.43 | +31% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,125 | kr 607.30 | -46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €71.20 | €72.67 | +2% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.60 | ¥63.65 | +19% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.58 | HK$6.05 | -8% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.10 | C$74.42 | +18% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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