Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Harley-Davidson Inc. $17.57, price $24.62, upside -28.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.25 – $46.95 · fair‑value band $13.88 – $27.79 · the $24.62 price screens above the $17.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY) currently trades at $24.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.57, 28.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.88 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the $24.62 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.46, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.88 (bear) to $27.79 (bull), the price of $24.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Harley-Davidson Inc. reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $339M in FY2025, compounding −15.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $3.96 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% · Operating margin 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −29%, 0QYY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.88Fair Value $17.57Bull $27.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.8% vs −3.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.3% a year for the price and −3.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Machinery” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5305 stocks
Beats the sector median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−28.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.1% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.89× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)6· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)60· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harley-Davidson Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QYY
Frequently asked questions
Is Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.57 versus a price of $24.62, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QYY?
Our model-based fair value for Harley-Davidson Inc. is $17.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.62.
What is the quality score of 0QYY?
Harley-Davidson Inc. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.88, optimistic scenario $27.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harley-Davidson Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.57, about −29% upside versus a price of $24.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.88, optimistic scenario $27.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
Harley-Davidson Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Harley-Davidson Inc. pay a dividend?
Harley-Davidson Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harley-Davidson Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QYY use?
Our models discount Harley-Davidson Inc. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harley-Davidson Inc. that is +8.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Harley-Davidson Inc. grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +8.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harley-Davidson Inc. (+8.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.51 %: that much free cash flow Harley-Davidson Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harley-Davidson Inc. it is $17.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $24.62. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harley-Davidson Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QYY trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.62, fair value $17.57, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QYY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.57). For Harley-Davidson Inc. the two are $7.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harley-Davidson Inc. worth?
The market values Harley-Davidson Inc. at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $24.62; our models calculate a fair value of $17.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QYY?
Our models span a range for Harley-Davidson Inc.: cautious scenario $13.88, base $17.57, optimistic $27.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $24.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0QYY?
Harley-Davidson Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.57 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harley-Davidson Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 1.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QYY from its 52-week high?
Harley-Davidson Inc. trades at $24.62, about 14% below its 52-week high of $28.54 and 43% above the low of $17.25 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harley-Davidson Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value INLCM, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harley-Davidson Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $24.62, calculated fair value $17.57 (−29%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QYY calculated?
We run Harley-Davidson Inc. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Harley-Davidson Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $24.62. Our model-based fair value is $17.57, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harley-Davidson Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.88 to $27.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY) come from?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson Inc. grew −0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −5.9 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Harley-Davidson Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
The market capitalisation of Harley-Davidson Inc. is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson Inc. are $3.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
The dividend yield of Harley-Davidson Inc. is 3.0% (payout 18.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
The net margin of Harley-Davidson Inc. is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harley-Davidson Inc. is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harley-Davidson Inc. is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
The operating margin of Harley-Davidson Inc. is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
Revenue at Harley-Davidson Inc. is growing −5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY)?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson Inc. are growing −14.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Harley-Davidson Inc. (0QYY) hold?
Harley-Davidson Inc. holds more cash than debt, $38.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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