Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Travelers Cos. Inc. $214, price $361, upside -40.7%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $75.74 – $395.48 · fair‑value band $157.16 – $530.04 · the $361.00 price screens above the $214.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
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The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. The Business Insurance segment offers workers' compensation, commercial automobile and property, general liability, commercial multi-peril, employers' liability, public and product liability, professional indemnity, marine, aviation, commercial property and automobile, onshore and offshore energy, construction, terrorism, personal accident, and kidnap and ransom insurance products. This segment operates through select accounts, which serve small businesses; middle accounts that serve mid-sized businesses; national accounts, which serve large companies; and national property and others that serve large and mid-sized customers, commercial trucking industry, and agricultural businesses, as well as markets and distributes its products through brokers, wholesale agents, and program managers. The Bond & Specialty Insurance segment provides surety, fidelity, management and professional liability, and other property and casualty coverages and related risk management services through independent agencies and brokers. The Personal Insurance segment offers property and casualty insurance covering personal risks, primarily automobile and homeowners' insurance to individuals. The Travelers Companies, Inc. was founded in 1853 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03) currently trades at $361.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $214.21, 40.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $403.56 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $361.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $51.59, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $157.16 (bear) to $530.04 (bull), the price of $361.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Travelers Cos. Inc. reported revenue of $48.8B in FY2025 versus $34.8B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $6.3B in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $82.2B · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) $15.78 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 12.9% · Return on equity 26.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −41%, 0R03 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($51.59 to $498.51). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $157.16Fair Value $214.21Bull $530.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.49 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+21.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.3% vs 9.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 16%
2025 sits 116% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.6% a year for the price and −2.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Insurance” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5266 stocks
Beats the sector median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−40.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)17.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)2· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)25· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Travelers Cos. Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0R03
Frequently asked questions
Is Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $214.21 versus a price of $361.00, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0R03?
Our model-based fair value for Travelers Cos. Inc. is $214.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $361.00.
What is the quality score of 0R03?
Travelers Cos. Inc. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $214.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $157.16, optimistic scenario $530.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Travelers Cos. Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $214.21, about −41% upside versus a price of $361.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $157.16, optimistic scenario $530.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
Travelers Cos. Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $49.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Travelers Cos. Inc. pay a dividend?
Travelers Cos. Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Travelers Cos. Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0R03 use?
Our models discount Travelers Cos. Inc. at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Travelers Cos. Inc. that is -3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Travelers Cos. Inc. grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies -3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Travelers Cos. Inc. (-3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.75 %: that much free cash flow Travelers Cos. Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Travelers Cos. Inc. it is $214.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $361.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Travelers Cos. Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0R03 trades above its calculated fair value: price $361.00, fair value $214.21, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0R03?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($361.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($214.21). For Travelers Cos. Inc. the two are $146.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Travelers Cos. Inc. worth?
The market values Travelers Cos. Inc. at about $82.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $361.00; our models calculate a fair value of $214.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0R03?
Our models span a range for Travelers Cos. Inc.: cautious scenario $157.16, base $214.21, optimistic $530.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $361.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0R03?
Travelers Cos. Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $214.21 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
Balance-sheet figures for Travelers Cos. Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 26.5%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0R03 from its 52-week high?
Travelers Cos. Inc. trades at $361.00, about 9% below its 52-week high of $395.48 and 40% above the low of $258.66 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $214.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Travelers Cos. Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value NRCP, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Travelers Cos. Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $361.00, calculated fair value $214.21 (−41%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0R03 calculated?
We run Travelers Cos. Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $214.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Travelers Cos. Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $361.00. Our model-based fair value is $214.21, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Travelers Cos. Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($157.16 to $530.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03) come from?
Earnings per share at Travelers Cos. Inc. grew +7.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin −3.5 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Travelers Cos. Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The market capitalisation of Travelers Cos. Inc. is $82.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Travelers Cos. Inc. is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
Earnings per share at Travelers Cos. Inc. are $15.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The dividend yield of Travelers Cos. Inc. is 1.3% (payout 28.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The net margin of Travelers Cos. Inc. is 12.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Travelers Cos. Inc. is 26.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Travelers Cos. Inc. is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
The operating margin of Travelers Cos. Inc. is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
Revenue at Travelers Cos. Inc. is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03)?
Earnings per share at Travelers Cos. Inc. are growing +57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Travelers Cos. Inc. (0R03) carry?
The net debt of Travelers Cos. Inc. is $8.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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