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Deere & Co. (0R2P) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Deere & Co. $226, price $682, upside -66.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · GB · Home US

DC Some data Sep 24, 2026

Deere & Co.

0R2P · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $226.00 · Strongly overvalued (−66.9%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +5.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
!Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 19 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$707.88 $132.59 Fair Value $226.00 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $132.59 – $707.88 · fair‑value band $122.90 – $350.30 · the $681.66 price screens above the $226.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services.

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Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties. Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Deere & Co. (0R2P) currently trades at $681.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $226.00, 66.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $290.73 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $681.66 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $54.58, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $122.90 (bear) to $350.30 (bull), the price of $681.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Deere & Co. reported revenue of $45.7B in FY2025 versus $43.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $185B · P/E ratio 0.3 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) $19.16 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 18.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 414% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −67%, 0R2P screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $122.90 Fair Value $226.00 Bull $350.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.66 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $123.93 $226.71 $376.05 75
EPV $155.95 $192.75 $224.50 74
Growth DCF $126.99 $217.86 $342.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $123.93 $226.71 $376.05 75
Owner Earnings $117.10 $216.39 $360.66 72
5Y Revenue Exit $105.23 $207.58 $336.79 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $197.34 $378.87 $589.85 71
5Y P/E Exit $136.25 $265.26 $399.35 67
10Y Revenue Exit $105.06 $198.47 $321.30 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $167.56 $314.36 $509.08 64
10Y P/E Exit $129.57 $237.50 $367.73 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $107.30 $324.63 $430.51 63
Lynch FV $69.26 $98.94 $128.62 59
PEG = 1.0 $69.26 $98.94 $128.62 55
EPV $155.95 $192.75 $224.50 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $47.42 $94.48 $143.08 64
DDM Multi-Stage $47.42 $76.10 $99.73 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $248.53 $331.38 $414.22 63
P/S Multiple $201.19 $268.26 $335.32 58
P/B Multiple $201.19 $268.26 $335.32 55
EV/EBIT $300.15 $425.92 $551.68 65
EV/EBITDA $279.60 $398.51 $517.42 67
EV/Revenue $103.55 $180.99 $258.42 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $40.73 $54.58 $81.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $126.99 $217.86 $342.00 74
Rev-Margin DCF $105.23 $208.53 $326.57 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $95.48 $120.47 $183.93 72
ROIC Compounder $169.03 $230.83 $303.10 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $203.51 $290.73 $377.95 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.8% vs 12.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.0% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−9.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.7%

0R2P screens overvalued: fair value 67% below the price. Compare with RUNGTAIR →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Agricultural Machinery” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5266 stocks

Beats the sector median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −66.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 18.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 17.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 35
PAST (return on equity)73 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)37 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)19 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Deere & Co. · Fair Value
$226.00 −67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deere & Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0R2P

Frequently asked questions

Is Deere & Co. (0R2P) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $226.00 versus a price of $681.66, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0R2P?
Our model-based fair value for Deere & Co. is $226.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $681.66.
What is the quality score of 0R2P?
Deere & Co. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $226.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $122.90, optimistic scenario $350.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deere & Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $226.00, about −67% upside versus a price of $681.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $122.90, optimistic scenario $350.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
Deere & Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $47.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Deere & Co. pay a dividend?
Deere & Co. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deere & Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +38.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0R2P use?
Our models discount Deere & Co. at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Deere & Co. that is +38.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Deere & Co. (0R2P) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Deere & Co. grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +38.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Deere & Co. (0R2P) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Deere & Co. (+38.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.32 %: that much free cash flow Deere & Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deere & Co. it is $226.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $681.66. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deere & Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0R2P trades above its calculated fair value: price $681.66, fair value $226.00, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0R2P?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($681.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($226.00). For Deere & Co. the two are $455.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deere & Co. worth?
The market values Deere & Co. at about $185B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $681.66; our models calculate a fair value of $226.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0R2P?
Our models span a range for Deere & Co.: cautious scenario $122.90, base $226.00, optimistic $350.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $681.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0R2P?
Deere & Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $226.00 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deere & Co. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.4%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0R2P from its 52-week high?
Deere & Co. trades at $681.66, about 4% below its 52-week high of $707.88 and 414% above the low of $132.59 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $226.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deere & Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value RUNGTAIR, SHIVAGR, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deere & Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $681.66, calculated fair value $226.00 (−67%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0R2P calculated?
We run Deere & Co. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $226.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Deere & Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $681.66. Our model-based fair value is $226.00, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deere & Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($350.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($122.90 to $350.30). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Deere & Co. (0R2P) come from?
Earnings per share at Deere & Co. grew +16.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin +8.4 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Deere & Co.

How large is the market capitalisation of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The market capitalisation of Deere & Co. is $185B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deere & Co. is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
Earnings per share at Deere & Co. are $19.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The dividend yield of Deere & Co. is 1.0% (payout 33.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The net margin of Deere & Co. is 11.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deere & Co. is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deere & Co. is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
The operating margin of Deere & Co. is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
Revenue at Deere & Co. is growing −11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deere & Co. (0R2P)?
Earnings per share at Deere & Co. are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Deere & Co. (0R2P) carry?
The net debt of Deere & Co. is $55.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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