Chevron Corp. (0R2Q) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Chevron Corp. $108, price $207, upside -47.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $77.25 – $216.86 · fair‑value band $73.70 – $140.30 · the $207.17 price screens above the $108.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments.
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Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant. Its Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The All Other segment engages in cash management and debt financing; insurance; real estate; and technology activities. It has operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Chevron Corp. (0R2Q) currently trades at $207.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $108.42, 47.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $112.92 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $207.17 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $37.67, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $73.70 (bear) to $140.30 (bull), the price of $207.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Chevron Corp. reported revenue of $184B in FY2025 versus $156B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $12.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $410B · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) $8.75 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 138% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −48%, 0R2Q screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $73.70Fair Value $108.42Bull $140.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.34 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the price and −3.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)9.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)22.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth52.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.80× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 98
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)67· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chevron Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0R2Q
Frequently asked questions
Is Chevron Corp. (0R2Q) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $108.42 versus a price of $207.17, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0R2Q?
Our model-based fair value for Chevron Corp. is $108.42 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $207.17.
What is the quality score of 0R2Q?
Chevron Corp. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $108.42 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $73.70, optimistic scenario $140.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chevron Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $108.42, about −48% upside versus a price of $207.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $73.70, optimistic scenario $140.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
Chevron Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $209B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Chevron Corp. pay a dividend?
Chevron Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chevron Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0R2Q use?
Our models discount Chevron Corp. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chevron Corp. that is +15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chevron Corp. (0R2Q) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chevron Corp. grew +14.3 % a year. The price currently implies +15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chevron Corp. (+15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.05 %: that much free cash flow Chevron Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chevron Corp. it is $108.42 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $207.17. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chevron Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0R2Q trades above its calculated fair value: price $207.17, fair value $108.42, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0R2Q?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($207.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($108.42). For Chevron Corp. the two are $98.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chevron Corp. worth?
The market values Chevron Corp. at about $410B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $207.17; our models calculate a fair value of $108.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0R2Q?
Our models span a range for Chevron Corp.: cautious scenario $73.70, base $108.42, optimistic $140.30 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $207.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0R2Q?
Chevron Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $108.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 0R2Q?
The PEG ratio of Chevron Corp. is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chevron Corp. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0R2Q from its 52-week high?
Chevron Corp. trades at $207.17, about 4% below its 52-week high of $216.86 and 138% above the low of $87.09 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $108.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chevron Corp.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chevron Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $207.17, calculated fair value $108.42 (−48%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0R2Q calculated?
We run Chevron Corp. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $108.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chevron Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $207.17. Our model-based fair value is $108.42, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chevron Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($140.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($73.70 to $140.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Chevron Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The market capitalisation of Chevron Corp. is $410B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chevron Corp. is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
Earnings per share at Chevron Corp. are $8.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The dividend yield of Chevron Corp. is 3.4% (payout 79.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The net margin of Chevron Corp. is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chevron Corp. is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chevron Corp. is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
The operating margin of Chevron Corp. is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
Revenue at Chevron Corp. is growing +52.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chevron Corp. (0R2Q)?
Earnings per share at Chevron Corp. are growing +323% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chevron Corp. (0R2Q) carry?
The net debt of Chevron Corp. is $33.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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