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Ambea AB (0RNX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ambea AB SEK 193, price SEK 173, upside +12.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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AA
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Ambea AB
0RNX · LSEUndervaluedQuality growthThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value kr 193.44 · Undervalued (+12.1%)
✓Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.3% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 45/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 30.24 – kr 177.45 · fair‑value band kr 175.02 – kr 251.46 · the kr 172.60 price screens below the kr 193.44 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Ambea AB (publ) provides elderly care, disability care, and psychosocial support for the elderly and people with disabilities in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. It operates through Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Altiden, and Klara segments.
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Ambea AB (publ) provides elderly care, disability care, and psychosocial support for the elderly and people with disabilities in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. It operates through Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Altiden, and Klara segments. The company offers social care services; schools for children and youth with neuropsychiatric disorders under the Nytida brand; nursing homes and home care services for elderly people under the Vardaga brand; and social care for adults, children, and youth, as well as personal assistance under the Stendi brand. It also offers disability care, nursing home, home care, and rehabilitation services under the Altiden brand. In addition, the company offers staff solutions for social welfare services, including ambulatory care teams and student health service staffing under the Klara brand. Further, it develops and offers skills development training and coaching services in disability care, social services field, aged care, and schools under the Lära brand; and care youth and families as well as residential facilities personal assistance, daily activity units and rehabilitation for people with physical and intellectual disabilities, and psychosocial problems under the Validia brand. Ambea AB (publ)was formerly known as H-Careholding AB and changed its name to Ambea AB (publ) in September 2007. Ambea AB (publ) was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden with an additional location in Nivå, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Ambea AB (0RNX) currently trades at kr 172.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 193.44, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 398.97 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 172.60 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 34.99, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 175.02 (bear) to kr 251.46 (bull), the price of kr 172.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ambea AB reported revenue of 16.0B SEK in FY2025 versus 11.5B SEK in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 665M SEK in FY2025, compounding +29.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.7B SEK (≈ $470M) · P/E ratio 0.2 · EPS (TTM) kr 2.72 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 12%, 0RNX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 175.02
Fair Value kr 193.44
Bull kr 251.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.0522 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
kr 365.01
kr 592.25
kr 928.23
79
Growth DCF
kr 361.28
kr 565.13
kr 850.32
78
Residual Income
kr 68.60
kr 78.20
kr 104.34
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
kr 365.01
kr 592.25
kr 928.23
79
Owner Earnings
kr 365.16
kr 592.49
kr 928.61
75
5Y Revenue Exit
kr 229.68
kr 351.58
kr 507.05
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
kr 368.48
kr 630.53
kr 950.70
74
5Y P/E Exit
kr 223.47
kr 339.10
kr 463.76
71
10Y Revenue Exit
kr 274.18
kr 398.97
kr 571.74
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
kr 361.98
kr 583.07
kr 902.74
67
10Y P/E Exit
kr 274.95
kr 390.74
kr 539.45
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
kr 66.88
kr 284.26
kr 388.14
64
Lynch FV
kr 72.49
kr 103.56
kr 134.63
61
PEG = 1.0
kr 72.49
kr 103.56
kr 134.63
57
EPV
kr 109.90
kr 126.16
kr 139.71
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
kr 21.26
kr 38.30
kr 52.73
68
DDM Multi-Stage
kr 21.26
kr 34.99
kr 40.92
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
kr 162.27
kr 216.37
kr 270.46
63
P/S Multiple
kr 125.39
kr 167.19
kr 208.99
58
P/B Multiple
kr 125.39
kr 167.19
kr 208.99
55
EV/EBIT
kr 217.29
kr 292.84
kr 368.39
66
EV/EBITDA
kr 411.00
kr 551.12
kr 691.24
67
EV/Revenue
kr 152.41
kr 221.73
kr 291.06
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
kr 38.45
kr 51.53
kr 76.90
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
kr 361.28
kr 565.13
kr 850.32
78
Rev-Margin DCF
kr 229.68
kr 353.99
kr 511.22
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
kr 68.60
kr 78.20
kr 104.34
76
ROIC Compounder
kr 119.16
kr 152.99
kr 194.39
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
kr 125.54
kr 179.34
kr 233.14
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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’20
’21
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +18.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.9% vs 21.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 56% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.0% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $431.63 | $597.97 | +39% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €43.64 | €34.49 | −21% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 225.00 SAR | 109.45 SAR | −51% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $257.93 | $274.35 | +6% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, 5225 | 8.03 MYR | 4.87 MYR | −39% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,889 | ₹2,908 | −67% |
| Encompass Health Corporation EHC | $123.47 | $94.47 | −23% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $22.27 | $45.84 | +106% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $178.07 | $215.81 | +21% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥7.91 | ¥10.86 | +37% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ambea AB (0RNX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 193.44 versus a price of kr 172.60, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0RNX?
Our model-based fair value for Ambea AB is kr 193.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 172.60.
What is the quality score of 0RNX?
Ambea AB has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambea AB (0RNX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 193.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 175.02, optimistic scenario kr 251.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambea AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 193.44, about +12% upside versus a price of kr 172.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 175.02, optimistic scenario kr 251.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
Ambea AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.7B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ambea AB pay a dividend?
Ambea AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ambea AB (0RNX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambea AB would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0RNX use?
Our models discount Ambea AB at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ambea AB that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ambea AB (0RNX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ambea AB grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ambea AB (0RNX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ambea AB (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.01 %: that much free cash flow Ambea AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambea AB it is kr 193.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 172.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ambea AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0RNX trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 172.60, fair value kr 193.44, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0RNX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 172.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 193.44). For Ambea AB the two are kr 20.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambea AB worth?
The market values Ambea AB at about 4.7B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 172.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 193.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0RNX?
Our models span a range for Ambea AB: cautious scenario kr 175.02, base kr 193.44, optimistic kr 251.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 172.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0RNX from its 52-week high?
Ambea AB trades at kr 172.60, about 3% below its 52-week high of kr 177.45 and 53% above the low of kr 113.18 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 193.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambea AB?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambea AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 172.60, calculated fair value kr 193.44 (+12%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0RNX calculated?
We run Ambea AB through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 193.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ambea AB currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 172.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 193.44, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambea AB right now?
The price sits below our cautious bear case: the market assumes less than even our pessimistic scenario. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Ambea AB (0RNX) come from?
Earnings per share at Ambea AB grew +20.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +6.2 %, tax rate +7.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ambea AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The market capitalisation of Ambea AB is 4.7B SEK (≈ $470M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Ambea AB is 0.2 (as of Aug 5, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
Earnings per share at Ambea AB are kr 2.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The dividend yield of Ambea AB is 5.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The net margin of Ambea AB is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambea AB is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambea AB is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambea AB (0RNX)?
The operating margin of Ambea AB is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambea AB (0RNX)?
Revenue at Ambea AB is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ambea AB (0RNX)?
Earnings per share at Ambea AB are growing +45.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ambea AB (0RNX) carry?
The net debt of Ambea AB is 12.5B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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