Tencent Holdings (0Z4S) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tencent Holdings HK$494, price HK$421, upside +17.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$176.12 – HK$671.66 · fair‑value band HK$263.77 – HK$785.89 · the HK$420.80 price screens below the HK$493.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally.
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Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides value-added services, marketing services, fintech, and business services in Mainland China and internationally. The company's consumers business includes communications and social services, such as instant messaging and social networks; digital content, including online games, videos, live streaming, news, music, and literature; fintech services, which include mobile payment, wealth management, consumer loans, and securities trading; and various tools comprising network security management, browsing, navigation, application management, email, etc. Its enterprise business comprises marketing solutions, which offer digital tools, including user insight, creative management, placement strategy, and digital assets management; and cloud services, such as cloud computing, big data analytics, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and security and other technologies for financial services, education, healthcare, retail, industry, transport, energy, and radio and television industries. The company also invests in, produces, and distributes films and television programs; offers copyrights licensing and merchandise sales and other services; provides internet advertisement services; and offers software development, and information technology and system integration services, as well as develops and operates mobile games. The company was formerly known as Tencent (BVI) Limited and changed its name to Tencent Holdings Limited in February 2004. Tencent Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tencent Holdings (0Z4S) currently trades at HK$420.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$493.84, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$529.97 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$420.80 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$154.37, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$263.77 (bear) to HK$785.89 (bull), the price of HK$420.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tencent Holdings reported revenue of HK$482B in FY2020 versus HK$152B in FY2016, a compound +33.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$160B in FY2020, compounding +40.4%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.6T (≈ $585B) · P/S ratio 5.98 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 33.2% · Return on equity 20.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0% · Operating margin 34.3% · Revenue (TTM) HK$768B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 17%, 0Z4S screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$263.77Fair Value HK$493.84Bull HK$785.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.6%
’16
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
36.9% (2016) → 38.2% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 132 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−62.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)30.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tencent Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0Z4S
Frequently asked questions
Is Tencent Holdings (0Z4S) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$493.84 versus a price of HK$420.80, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0Z4S?
Our model-based fair value for Tencent Holdings is HK$493.84 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$420.80.
What is the quality score of 0Z4S?
Tencent Holdings has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$493.84 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$263.77, optimistic scenario HK$785.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tencent Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$493.84, about +17% upside versus a price of HK$420.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$263.77, optimistic scenario HK$785.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
Tencent Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$768B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Tencent Holdings pay a dividend?
Tencent Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tencent Holdings it is HK$493.84 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$420.80. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tencent Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0Z4S trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$420.80, fair value HK$493.84, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0Z4S?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$420.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$493.84). For Tencent Holdings the two are HK$73.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tencent Holdings worth?
The market values Tencent Holdings at about HK$4.6T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$420.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$493.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0Z4S?
Our models span a range for Tencent Holdings: cautious scenario HK$263.77, base HK$493.84, optimistic HK$785.89 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$420.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tencent Holdings (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 20.5%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0Z4S from its 52-week high?
Tencent Holdings trades at HK$420.80, about 37% below its 52-week high of HK$671.66 and 2% above the low of HK$411.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$493.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tencent Holdings?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Spotify Technology S.A, Baidu, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tencent Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$420.80, calculated fair value HK$493.84 (+17%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0Z4S calculated?
We run Tencent Holdings through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$493.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tencent Holdings currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$420.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$493.84, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tencent Holdings right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$263.77 to HK$785.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tencent Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
The market capitalisation of Tencent Holdings is HK$4.6T (≈ $585B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tencent Holdings is 5.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
The dividend yield of Tencent Holdings is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
The net margin of Tencent Holdings is 33.2% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tencent Holdings is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tencent Holdings is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
The operating margin of Tencent Holdings is 34.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
Revenue at Tencent Holdings is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tencent Holdings (0Z4S)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Holdings are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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