CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$92.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from HK$6.24 to HK$7.14 (+14.4%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +8.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from HK$5.48 (bear) to HK$8.81 (bull), base HK$7.14. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.13 – HK$11.06 · fair‑value band HK$5.48 – HK$8.81 · the HK$8.50 price screens above the HK$7.14 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093) currently trades at HK$8.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.14, implying the stock looks roughly 16.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group generated revenue of HK$25.5B at a net margin of 12.8%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$5.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.48 (bear case) to HK$8.81 (bull case); at HK$8.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -16%, 1093 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$8.35) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.95). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products in Mainland China, other Asian regions, Europe, North America, and internationally. It operates through Finished Drugs, Bulk Products, and Functional Food and Others segments.
Full company description
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products in Mainland China, other Asian regions, Europe, North America, and internationally. It operates through Finished Drugs, Bulk Products, and Functional Food and Others segments. The company provides NBP soft capsules and injections for acute ischemic stroke; Oulaining capsules and injections to treat mild to moderate memory and mental impairment; Enxi to treat adult idiopathic Parkinson's disease; Duomeisu for lymphoma, multiple myeloma, ovarian and breast cancers, and other malignant tumors; Jinyouli to prevent infection induced by chemotherapy; and Keaili for breast cancer. It also offers Shuluoke, Nuomoling, Weihong, and Xinweihong for various infections; Xuanning for hypertension; Encun to prevent atherosclerotic thrombosis events; Qixiao to treat upper respiratory tract infection; Linmeixin and Shuanglexin for diabetes; Gubang and Gubangjia to treat osteoporosis in postmenopausal women; and Gaoshunsong for arthritis, osteoarthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, frozen shoulder, bursuitis, tenosynovitis, acute gout, dysmenorrhea, toothache and postoperative pain, low back pain, sprain, strain, and other soft tissue injuries. In addition, the company provides Debixin for various ulcer; Qimaite for acute and chronic pains; antibiotics, vitamin C, and caffeine APIs; functional food products; and healthcare services. It has a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca PLC to advance the discovery and development of novel oral candidates, with the potential to treat diseases across multiple indications and multiple therapies for obesity and type 2 diabetes. The company was formerly known as China Pharmaceutical Group Limited and changed its name to CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited in March 2013. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Shijiazhuang, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group reported revenue of HK$25.3B in FY2025 versus HK$27.4B in FY2021, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.8B in FY2025, compounding −9.0%/yr from FY2021.
1093 screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,182 | $396.77 | -66% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $257.59 | $169.04 | -34% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $254.49 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Roche Holding 1RO | €377.80 | €280.03 | -26% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €108.08 | €121.54 | +12% |
| Novartis AG NVSN | 2,742 MXN | 2,379 MXN | -13% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $171.61 | $129.54 | -25% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 329.90 | kr 409.46 | +24% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $363.39 | $252.02 | -31% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $134.28 | $146.50 | +9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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