China Water Industry Group (1129) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$103M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1630 – HK$2.70 · fair‑value band HK$0.2100 – HK$0.3100 · the HK$0.1630 price screens below the HK$0.2600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Water Industry Group (1129) currently trades at HK$0.1630, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2600, implying the stock looks roughly 59.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$234M. Revenue declined 47.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -31.1%. Net debt stands at HK$619M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2100 (bear case) to HK$0.3100 (bull case); at HK$0.1630, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 60%, 1129 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.6900) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.2400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Water Industry Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides sewage treatment and related construction services in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
China Water Industry Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides sewage treatment and related construction services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through the Provision of Sewage Treatment and Related Construction Services; Exploitation and Sale of Renewable Energy; Property Investment and Development; and Waste Management and Recycling segments. The company offers sewage treatment operations and related construction services; electricity and compressed natural gas from biogas power plants; solid organic fertilizer from utilization of straw and livestock and poultry waste; administrative services; and environmental protection technical services. It is also involved in the sale of commercial and residential units; and collection and recycling of glass bottles; collection of food waste; installation of water suppliers' facilities; exploitation, generation, and sale of renewable energy; property development and management; glass recycling; and sale of environmental protection equipment. The company was formerly known as Sky Hawk Computer Group Limited and changed its name to China Water Industry Group Limited in November 2006. China Water Industry Group Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Water Industry Group reported revenue of HK$234M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −32.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$276M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 68 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.92 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$26.12 | R$31.23 | +20% |
| SBS SBS | $5.10 | $8.12 | +59% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $40.08 | $21.81 | -46% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.15 | HK$12.82 | +57% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$60.57 | R$60.17 | -1% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.61 | ¥33.29 | +12% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $87.54 | $47.94 | -45% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.14 | ¥9.09 | +27% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.98 | $33.56 | -33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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