Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais stock BRL 60.17, price BRL 50.54, upside +19.1%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$7.51 – R$67.15 · fair‑value band R$41.19 – R$80.00 · the R$50.54 price screens below the R$60.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais plans, executes, expands, remodels, and explores public services, basic sanitation, water supply, sewage, sanitary, and solid waste in Brazil and internationally.
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It is involved in collection, treatment, and distribution of treated water to end consumers; collection, transportation, recycling, treatment, and final disposal of urban, domestic, and industrial waste; and urban cleaning and solid waste management, as well as drainage and management of urban rainwater.
The company was formerly known as Companhia Mineira de Água e Esgotos and changed its name to Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais in November 1974. Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) currently trades at R$50.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$60.17, implying the stock looks roughly 16% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$70.40 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$50.54 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$25.78, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$41.19 (bear) to R$80.00 (bull), the price of R$50.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais reported revenue of R$8.3B in FY2025 versus R$5.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.4B in FY2025, compounding +27.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$18.7B (≈ $3.4B) Mid · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) R$3.43 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 19%, CSMG3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$41.19Fair Value R$60.17BullR$80.00
Price R$50.54 · Upside +19.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.52 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.4% vs 13.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.5% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+19.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)21.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSMG3
Frequently asked questions
Is Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$60.17 versus a price of R$50.54, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CSMG3?
Our model-based fair value for Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is R$60.17 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$50.54.
What is the quality score of CSMG3?
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$60.17 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$41.19, optimistic scenario R$80.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$60.17, about +19% upside versus a price of R$50.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$41.19, optimistic scenario R$80.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$8.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais pay a dividend?
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais currently shows a dividend yield of 3.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais pays a dividend of R$1.66 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 22, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2006. The payout ratio is 48.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.58 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSMG3 use?
Our models discount Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais that is +2.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais grew +9.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (+2.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.73 %: that much free cash flow Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais it is R$60.17 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of R$50.54. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CSMG3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$50.54, fair value R$60.17, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSMG3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$50.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$60.17). For Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais the two are R$9.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais worth?
The market values Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais at about R$18.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is R$50.54; our models calculate a fair value of R$60.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSMG3?
Our models span a range for Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais: cautious scenario R$41.19, base R$60.17, optimistic R$80.00 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price R$50.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CSMG3?
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$60.17 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 7.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.2, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CSMG3?
The PEG ratio of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is 1.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSMG3 from its 52-week high?
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais trades at R$50.54, about 25% below its 52-week high of R$67.15 and 40% above the low of R$36.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$60.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price R$50.54, calculated fair value R$60.17 (+19%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSMG3 calculated?
We run Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R$60.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais currently trades 16% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was R$50.54. Our model-based fair value is R$60.17, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais right now?
A fairly wide model range (R$41.19 to R$80.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) come from?
Earnings per share at Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais grew +15.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais
How large is the market capitalisation of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The market capitalisation of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is R$18.7B (≈ $3.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is 2.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
Earnings per share at Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais are R$3.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The dividend yield of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is 3.3% (payout 48.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The net margin of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is 14.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
The operating margin of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is 21.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
Revenue at Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3)?
Earnings per share at Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais are growing −21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) carry?
The net debt of Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais is R$7.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026