Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangdong Investment Ltd stock HK$12.82, price HK$8.17, upside +57.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.78 – HK$9.08 · fair‑value band HK$9.61 – HK$16.02 · the HK$8.17 price screens below the HK$12.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Guangdong Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in water resources, property investment and development, department store operation, hotel ownership, energy project operation and management, and road and bridge operation businesses.
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The company provides water distribution, sewage treatment, and water pipeline installation and consultancy services; constructs water supply and sewage treatment infrastructure; and sells machineries.
It also invests in and rents various properties; and offers property management services for various commercial properties. In addition, the company operates department stores, as well as engages in sale of goods and concessionaire; and management and sub-letting of operating area.
Further, it is involved in the operation of coal-fired power plants that supply electricity and steam; and hotels, as well as provision of hotel management services to third parties.
The company invests in various road and bridge projects, which engages in the toll road operation and road management; and provides treasury, marketing management, and environmental engineering services.
The company was formerly known as Union Globe Development Limited and changed its name to Guangdong Investment Limited in January 1987. The company was incorporated in 1973 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guangdong Investment Limited operates as a subsidiary of GDH Limited.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) currently trades at HK$8.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.82, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$16.37 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$8.17 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.92, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$9.61 (bear) to HK$16.02 (bull), the price of HK$8.17 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Guangdong Investment Ltd reported revenue of HK$18.8B in FY2025 versus HK$29.7B in FY2021, a compound −10.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$53.4B (≈ $6.8B) Mid · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 2.69 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 24.7% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 44.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 57%, 0270 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$9.61Fair Value HK$12.82BullHK$16.02
Price HK$8.17 · Upside +57.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.2% vs 0.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 39%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.1% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (11 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Guangdong Investment Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 15/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+57.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)24.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)44.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
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Is Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.82 versus a price of HK$8.17, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0270?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Investment Ltd is HK$12.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.17.
What is the quality score of 0270?
Guangdong Investment Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.61, optimistic scenario HK$16.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Investment Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.82, about +57% upside versus a price of HK$8.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.61, optimistic scenario HK$16.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
Guangdong Investment Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Guangdong Investment Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangdong Investment Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guangdong Investment Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.488 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 11, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2004. The payout ratio is 68.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.27 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangdong Investment Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0270 use?
Our models discount Guangdong Investment Ltd at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangdong Investment Ltd that is -7.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangdong Investment Ltd grew -4.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -7.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangdong Investment Ltd (-7.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.58 %: that much free cash flow Guangdong Investment Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Investment Ltd it is HK$12.82 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of HK$8.17. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Guangdong Investment Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 0270 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$8.17, fair value HK$12.82, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0270?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$8.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.82). For Guangdong Investment Ltd the two are HK$4.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Investment Ltd worth?
The market values Guangdong Investment Ltd at about HK$53.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is HK$8.17; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0270?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Investment Ltd: cautious scenario HK$9.61, base HK$12.82, optimistic HK$16.02 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price HK$8.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0270?
Guangdong Investment Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$12.82 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 13.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 0270?
The PEG ratio of Guangdong Investment Ltd is 0.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Investment Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0270 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Investment Ltd trades at HK$8.17, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$9.08 and 29% above the low of HK$6.34 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Investment Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Investment Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price HK$8.17, calculated fair value HK$12.82 (+57%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0270 calculated?
We run Guangdong Investment Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$12.82 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Investment Ltd currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$8.17. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.82, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Investment Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (72/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Investment Ltd grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangdong Investment Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Investment Ltd is HK$53.4B (≈ $6.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Investment Ltd is 2.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Investment Ltd is 6.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The net margin of Guangdong Investment Ltd is 24.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Investment Ltd is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Investment Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Investment Ltd is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
Revenue at Guangdong Investment Ltd is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Investment Ltd are growing +8.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Investment Ltd is HK$7.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026