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Alinma Bank (1150) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Alinma Bank SAR 20.65, price SAR 24.30, upside -15.0%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · SA · ISIN SA122050HV19

AB Broad data Sep 27, 2026

Alinma Bank

1150 · SR

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value 20.65 SAR · Overvalued (−15.0%)
!Quality 33/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +15.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 59.0% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
✓Wide moat 67/100
!Weak on valuation: 13 out of 100
!Weak on future: 12 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

977,915 SAR 11.17 SAR Fair Value 20.65 SAR Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 11.17 SAR – 977,915 SAR · fair‑value band 15.62 SAR – 31.14 SAR · the 24.30 SAR price screens above the 20.65 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Alinma Bank provides banking and investment services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, Treasury, and Investment and Brokerage segments.

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Alinma Bank provides banking and investment services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, Treasury, and Investment and Brokerage segments. The company provides various banking services, including current, education, and family accounts; self-service banking services; debit, credit, traveler, purchase, and prepaid cards; point of sale services; car, real estate, personal, and education financing, as well as SME, kafalah program, business payroll, assets, business invoices, and receivables financing; and bill payment services. It also offers treasury, letters of guarantee, documentary collection, import and export letters of credit, and guarantee verification services; cash management services; corporate partner services; financing and investment products; financial services; and payroll management and e-payment gateway services. In addition, the company provides investment management, asset management, custodianship, advisory, underwriting, and brokerage services; and operates as an insurance agent. Further, it offers digital banking services. The company provides its services to individuals, corporates, SMEs, and institutional customers. Alinma Bank was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Alinma Bank (1150) currently trades at 24.30 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.65 SAR, 15.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 22.51 SAR per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the 24.30 SAR price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.77 SAR, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 15.62 SAR (bear) to 31.14 SAR (bull), the price of 24.30 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alinma Bank reported revenue of 11.8B SAR in FY2025 versus 6.7B SAR in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was 6.4B SAR in FY2025, compounding +24.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 73.5B SAR (≈ $19.6B) · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 6.60 · EPS (TTM) 1.99 SAR · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 54.0% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −15%, 1150 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 15.62 SAR Fair Value 20.65 SAR Bull 31.14 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.49 SAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 15.41 SAR 18.81 SAR 26.39 SAR 75
Gordon GGM 9.13 SAR 18.99 SAR 30.13 SAR 66
DDM Multi-Stage 9.13 SAR 16.02 SAR 19.93 SAR 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 9.13 SAR 18.99 SAR 30.13 SAR 66
DDM Multi-Stage 9.13 SAR 16.02 SAR 19.93 SAR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 20.79 SAR 27.72 SAR 34.65 SAR 63
P/B Multiple 16.88 SAR 22.51 SAR 28.14 SAR 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8.04 SAR 10.77 SAR 16.08 SAR 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income 15.41 SAR 18.81 SAR 26.39 SAR 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 63
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.1% vs 13.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 60%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

1150 screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1056 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −15.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 59.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 65.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.83× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.89× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)12 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)56 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)81 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.95 €77.62 −8%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.79 €4.02 −41%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.07 $6.86 −38%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €99.30 €105.99 +7%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹735.60 ₹406.44 −45%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €13.23 €8.46 −36%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,327 ₹615.71 −54%

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Alinma Bank · Fair Value
20.65 SAR −15%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alinma Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1150

Frequently asked questions

Is Alinma Bank (1150) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 20.65 SAR versus a price of 24.30 SAR, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1150?
Our model-based fair value for Alinma Bank is 20.65 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.30 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1150?
Alinma Bank has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alinma Bank (1150)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 20.65 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.62 SAR, optimistic scenario 31.14 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alinma Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 20.65 SAR, about −15% upside versus a price of 24.30 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 15.62 SAR, optimistic scenario 31.14 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alinma Bank (1150)?
Alinma Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.2B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Alinma Bank pay a dividend?
Alinma Bank currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alinma Bank (1150)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alinma Bank it is 20.65 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 24.30 SAR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alinma Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1150 trades above its calculated fair value: price 24.30 SAR, fair value 20.65 SAR, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1150?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.30 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (20.65 SAR). For Alinma Bank the two are 3.65 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alinma Bank worth?
The market values Alinma Bank at about 73.5B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 24.30 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 20.65 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1150?
Our models span a range for Alinma Bank: cautious scenario 15.62 SAR, base 20.65 SAR, optimistic 31.14 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 24.30 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1150?
Alinma Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 20.65 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 7.9, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alinma Bank (1150)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alinma Bank (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 13.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1150 from its 52-week high?
Alinma Bank trades at 24.30 SAR, about 6% below its 52-week high of 25.90 SAR and 22% above the low of 19.84 SAR (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 20.65 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alinma Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alinma Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 24.30 SAR, calculated fair value 20.65 SAR (−15%), Quality Score 33/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1150 calculated?
We run Alinma Bank through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 20.65 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Alinma Bank itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alinma Bank (1150)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 24.30 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 20.65 SAR, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alinma Bank right now?
Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (15.62 SAR to 31.14 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Alinma Bank (1150) come from?
Earnings per share at Alinma Bank grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.8 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alinma Bank

How large is the market capitalisation of Alinma Bank (1150)?
The market capitalisation of Alinma Bank is 73.5B SAR (≈ $19.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alinma Bank (1150)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alinma Bank is 6.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alinma Bank (1150)?
Earnings per share at Alinma Bank are 1.99 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alinma Bank (1150)?
The dividend yield of Alinma Bank is 4.1% (payout 49.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alinma Bank (1150)?
The net margin of Alinma Bank is 54.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alinma Bank (1150)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alinma Bank is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alinma Bank (1150)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alinma Bank is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alinma Bank (1150)?
The operating margin of Alinma Bank is 65.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alinma Bank (1150)?
Revenue at Alinma Bank is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alinma Bank (1150)?
Earnings per share at Alinma Bank are growing −2.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alinma Bank (1150) generate?
The free cash flow of Alinma Bank is −3.5B SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alinma Bank (1150) carry?
The net debt of Alinma Bank is 110B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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