CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of CGN Mining Co Ltd HK$1.38, price HK$2.12, upside -34.8%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5443 – HK$5.23 · fair‑value band HK$0.7000 – HK$1.91 · the HK$2.12 price screens above the HK$1.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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CGN Mining Company Limited engages in the development and trading of natural uranium resources to nuclear power plants. It operates through Natural Uranium Trading and Other Investments segments. The company also invests in natural uranium resources.
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CGN Mining Company Limited engages in the development and trading of natural uranium resources to nuclear power plants. It operates through Natural Uranium Trading and Other Investments segments. The company also invests in natural uranium resources. It operates in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Europe, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. CGN Mining Company Limited is a subsidiary of China Uranium Development Company Limited.
Stock analysis
CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) currently trades at HK$2.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.38, 34.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.45 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$2.12 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.1500, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.7000 (bear) to HK$1.91 (bull), the price of HK$2.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CGN Mining Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.9B in FY2025 versus HK$3.9B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$453M in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$18.5B (≈ $2.4B) · P/E ratio 35.5 · P/S ratio 2.34 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0596 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at −35%, 1164 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.7000Fair Value HK$1.38Bull HK$1.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.7% vs 5.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 0%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (7 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Uranium · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−34.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−58.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Uranium median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.06× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.70× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 0
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CGN Mining Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1164
Frequently asked questions
Is CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.38 versus a price of HK$2.12, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1164?
Our model-based fair value for CGN Mining Co Ltd is HK$1.38 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.12.
What is the quality score of 1164?
CGN Mining Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.38 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.7000, optimistic scenario HK$1.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CGN Mining Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.38, about −35% upside versus a price of HK$2.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.7000, optimistic scenario HK$1.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
CGN Mining Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does CGN Mining Co Ltd pay a dividend?
CGN Mining Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CGN Mining Co Ltd it is HK$1.38 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.12. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CGN Mining Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1164 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.12, fair value HK$1.38, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1164?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.38). For CGN Mining Co Ltd the two are HK$0.7350 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CGN Mining Co Ltd worth?
The market values CGN Mining Co Ltd at about HK$18.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.12; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1164?
Our models span a range for CGN Mining Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.7000, base HK$1.38, optimistic HK$1.91 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1164?
CGN Mining Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 4.1, P/S 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 1164?
The PEG ratio of CGN Mining Co Ltd is 0.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
Balance-sheet figures for CGN Mining Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1164 from its 52-week high?
CGN Mining Co Ltd trades at HK$2.12, about 60% below its 52-week high of HK$5.23 and 5% above the low of HK$2.02 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CGN Mining Co Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Cameco Corporation, Centrus Energy Corp, Deep Yellow Limited, Uranium Royalty Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CGN Mining Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.12, calculated fair value HK$1.38 (−35%), Quality Score 43/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1164 calculated?
We run CGN Mining Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. CGN Mining Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.12. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.38, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CGN Mining Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.7000 to HK$1.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) come from?
Earnings per share at CGN Mining Co Ltd grew +11.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +29.8 %, EBIT margin −36.6 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +35.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CGN Mining Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
The market capitalisation of CGN Mining Co Ltd is HK$18.5B (≈ $2.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CGN Mining Co Ltd is 2.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
Earnings per share at CGN Mining Co Ltd are HK$0.0596 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
The dividend yield of CGN Mining Co Ltd is 0.7% (payout 23.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
The net margin of CGN Mining Co Ltd is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CGN Mining Co Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CGN Mining Co Ltd is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
The operating margin of CGN Mining Co Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
Revenue at CGN Mining Co Ltd is growing −58.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
Earnings per share at CGN Mining Co Ltd are growing −36.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) generate?
The free cash flow of CGN Mining Co Ltd is −HK$985M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) carry?
The net debt of CGN Mining Co Ltd is HK$2.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026