Alligator Energy Limited (AGE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$240M
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from A$0.0709 to A$0.0734 (+3.5%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −16.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (16/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0518). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0190 – A$0.1150 · fair‑value band A$0.0518 – A$0.0896 · the A$0.0460 price screens below the A$0.0734 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Alligator Energy Limited (AGE) currently trades at A$0.0460, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0734, implying the stock looks roughly 59.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$1.1M. Revenue declined 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$30.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0518 (bear case) to A$0.0896 (bull case); at A$0.0460, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 142% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -63% fair-value upside, at 60%, AGE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0800) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alligator Energy Limited engages in uranium and other energy mineral exploration and potential future development activities in Australia. The company explores uranium, nickel, cobalt, and copper. Its flagship properties are the Samphire Uranium Project; Big Lake Uranium Project; and Alligator Rivers Uranium Province, located in South Australia.
Full company description
Alligator Energy Limited engages in uranium and other energy mineral exploration and potential future development activities in Australia. The company explores uranium, nickel, cobalt, and copper. Its flagship properties are the Samphire Uranium Project; Big Lake Uranium Project; and Alligator Rivers Uranium Province, located in South Australia. Alligator Energy Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Spring Hill, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alligator Energy Limited reported revenue of A$1.1M in FY2025 versus A$3.2K in FY2021, a compound +333.3%/yr. Reported net income was −A$5.9M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Uranium · 26 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Uranium median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameco Corporation CCJ | $95.99 | $9.62 | -90% |
| China National Uranium Co 001280 | ¥56.66 | ¥11.54 | -80% |
| NexGen Energy Ltd NXE | $9.25 | $1.04 | -89% |
| Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund UU | $18.61 | $29.76 | +60% |
| Centrus Energy Corp LEU | $156.05 | $58.25 | -63% |
| CGN Mining Company 1164 | HK$2.42 | HK$1.01 | -58% |
| Deep Yellow Limited DYL | A$1.23 | A$0.3000 | -76% |
| IsoEnergy Ltd ISOU | $10.01 | $1.78 | -82% |
| Bannerman Energy Ltd BMN | A$3.51 | A$3.63 | +3% |
| Uranium Royalty Corp UROY | $2.76 | $1.62 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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