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Middle East Company (1202) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · SA · Market cap 1.4B SAR

ME Middle East Company 1202 · SR
Price16.56 SAR
Fair Value4.59 SAR
Upside-72.3%
Quality33/100
Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 17/100
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Evidence: High Range 3.44 SAR – 5.74 SAR Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated today

Share price −8.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 72% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.74 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

48.10 SAR 14.28 SAR Fair Value 4.59 SAR Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 14.28 SAR – 48.10 SAR · fair‑value band 3.44 SAR – 5.74 SAR · the 16.56 SAR price screens above the 4.59 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

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Analysis

Middle East Company (1202) currently trades at 16.56 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.59 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 72.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Middle East Company generated revenue of 1.0B SAR at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue declined 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.0%. Net debt stands at 735M SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 3.44 SAR (bear case) to 5.74 SAR (bull case); at 16.56 SAR, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -72%, 1202 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 12.33 SAR 11.54 SAR 8.06 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 4.09 SAR 4.27 SAR 4.42 SAR 72
Gordon GGM 2.99 SAR 5.30 SAR 7.41 SAR 70
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.84 SAR 4.83 SAR 6.30 SAR 54
PEG = 1.0 0.9200 SAR 1.32 SAR 1.72 SAR 46
EPV 4.09 SAR 4.27 SAR 4.42 SAR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 2.99 SAR 5.30 SAR 7.41 SAR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 2.99 SAR 4.34 SAR 5.60 SAR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 4.05 SAR 5.40 SAR 6.75 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 3.44 SAR 4.59 SAR 5.74 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 3.44 SAR 4.59 SAR 5.74 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 7.10 SAR 8.55 SAR 10.01 SAR 53
EV/EBITDA 19.55 SAR 25.14 SAR 30.74 SAR 54
EV/Revenue 5.68 SAR 6.94 SAR 8.20 SAR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.39 SAR 12.59 SAR 18.79 SAR 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 12.33 SAR 11.54 SAR 8.06 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 4.09 SAR 4.27 SAR 4.42 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 3.18 SAR 4.55 SAR 5.91 SAR 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (12.59 SAR) versus Earnings-Based (4.27 SAR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.0B SAR
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.7%
Net margin 1.5%
Return on equity 1.0%
Free cash flow −119M SAR FY2025
P/E ratio 87.0
More key figures
Operating margin 2.0%
EPS (TTM) 0.1900 SAR
EPS growth (YoY) +29.4%
Net debt 735M SAR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 39
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Middle East Company for Manufacturing and Producing Paper, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of container boards and industrial papers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, and Other GCC countries. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Trading.

Full company description

Middle East Company for Manufacturing and Producing Paper, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of container boards and industrial papers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, and Other GCC countries. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Trading. The Manufacturing segment offers container board and industrial paper, as well as tissue paper. The Trading segment engages in the wholesale and retail sales of paper, carton, and plastic waste. It provides containerboards comprising high performance fluting, test liner, dual use, semi-chemical fluting, kraft liner board, and white top test liner products under MEPFLUTE, MEPLINER, MEPDUAL, MEPCHEM, MEPKRAFT, and MEPWHITE brand names for use in beverages, consumer durables, detergents, industrial goods, and processed food industries; and semi-chemical fluting products under the MEPCHEM brand name for frozen and fresh food applications. The company also offers paperboards, including core boards under the MEPCORE brand name for film, tape and label, textiles, and paper applications; plasterboard liners under the MEPGYPSUM brand name for interior wall lining systems; and absorbent kraft products under the MEPLAMINATE brand name for laminated furniture and shelves, and counters and floors, as well as industrial and tissue papers. In addition, it is involved in the wholesale of waste, scrap, and other products; provision of waste management and treatment services; recycling and collection of carton waste; and manufacture, import, and export of cartons, as well as retail trade in paper and cartons. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Middle East Company reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 23.4M SAR in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.1B SAR
Latest YoY
−0.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−3.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+3.8%
Revenue +0.1%/yr
FY21 1.1B SAR
FY22 1.2B SAR
FY23 867M SAR
FY24 1.1B SAR
FY25 1.1B SAR
Net income −42.9%/yr
FY21 221M SAR
FY22 270M SAR
FY23 −80.3M SAR
FY24 −77.3M SAR
FY25 23.4M SAR

1202 screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Middle East Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1202

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −72% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth -6% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.16× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 87.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.23× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.37× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 1.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 7
PAST 4 · sector 12
HEALTH 92 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Klabin S.A KLBN11 R$17.58 R$3.89 -78%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €23.45 €15.47 -34%
Suzano S.A SUZB3 R$41.70 R$138.01 +231%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 103.00 kr 49.40 -52%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.13 ¥17.29 +22%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 305.40 kr 217.72 -29%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.04 HK$8.99 +28%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,078 CLP 1,269 CLP +18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥22.05 ¥24.32 +10%
Billerud AB BILL kr 68.70 kr 48.60 -29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Middle East Company (1202) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.59 SAR versus a price of 16.56 SAR, about −72% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1202?
Our model-based fair value for Middle East Company is 4.59 SAR (as of Aug 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 16.56 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1202?
Middle East Company has a Quality Score of 33/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Middle East Company (1202)?
Middle East Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B SAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 4, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1202?
The net profit margin of Middle East Company is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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