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Middle East Paper Co (1202) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Middle East Paper Co stock SAR 7.09, price SAR 15.19, that is 53.3% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials SA · ISIN SA13Q050IP16

ME Middle East Paper Co logo Some data Nov 11, 2026

Middle East Paper Co

1202 · SR

Far too expensive (fair value 53% below the price), weak company and falling price: meets none of the 3 rules.

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Low debt 
Profit last quarter +193% vs. a year ago. 
Thin margins · 2.5% net margin (TTM) 
Some data 
Fair value 7.09 SAR · Strongly overvalued 
Quality 34/100 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −3.7 %/yr in SAR) 
Negative free cash flow 
Trails peers (4/12) 
Narrow moat 30/100
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

48.10 SAR 13.79 SAR Fair Value 7.09 SAR Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 13.79 SAR – 48.10 SAR · fair‑value band 5.58 SAR – 8.27 SAR · the 15.19 SAR price screens above the 7.09 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Middle East Company for Manufacturing and Producing Paper, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of container boards and industrial papers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, and Other GCC countries.

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The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Trading. The Manufacturing segment offers container board and industrial paper, as well as tissue paper. The Trading segment engages in the wholesale and retail sales of paper, carton, and plastic waste.

It provides containerboards comprising high performance fluting, test liner, dual use, semi-chemical fluting, kraft liner board, and white top test liner products under MEPFLUTE, MEPLINER, MEPDUAL, MEPCHEM, MEPKRAFT, and MEPWHITE brand names for use in beverages, consumer durables, detergents, industrial goods, and processed food industries; and semi-chemical fluting products under the MEPCHEM brand name for frozen and fresh food applications.

The company also offers paperboards, including core boards under the MEPCORE brand name for film, tape and label, textiles, and paper applications; plasterboard liners under the MEPGYPSUM brand name for interior wall lining systems; and absorbent kraft products under the MEPLAMINATE brand name for laminated furniture and shelves, and counters and floors, as well as industrial and tissue papers.

In addition, it is involved in the wholesale of waste, scrap, and other products; provision of waste management and treatment services; recycling and collection of carton waste; and manufacture, import, and export of cartons, as well as retail trade in paper and cartons.

The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Middle East Paper Co (1202) currently trades at 15.19 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.09 SAR, 53% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 7.94 SAR per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the 15.19 SAR price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 2.07 SAR, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 5.58 SAR (bear) to 8.27 SAR (bull), the price of 15.19 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Middle East Paper Co reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 23.4M SAR in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 1.3B SAR (≈ $351M) Small · P/E ratio 50.6 · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) 0.3000 SAR · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at −53%, 1202 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 5.58 SAR Fair Value 7.09 SAR Bull 8.27 SAR
Price 15.19 SAR · Downside -53.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2622 SAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV 4.17 SAR 4.37 SAR 4.55 SAR 74
ROIC Compounder 4.17 SAR 4.37 SAR 4.55 SAR 72
Residual Income 11.09 SAR 11.51 SAR 12.49 SAR 71
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.84 SAR 4.83 SAR 6.30 SAR 65
PEG = 1.0 0.9200 SAR 1.32 SAR 1.72 SAR 57
EPV 4.17 SAR 4.37 SAR 4.55 SAR 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3.44 SAR 4.59 SAR 5.74 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 3.44 SAR 4.59 SAR 5.74 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 41.83 SAR 55.77 SAR 69.71 SAR 55
EV/EBITDA 4.44 SAR 8.75 SAR 13.05 SAR 64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.37 SAR 2.07 SAR 2.59 SAR 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income 11.09 SAR 11.51 SAR 12.49 SAR 71
ROIC Compounder 4.17 SAR 4.37 SAR 4.55 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2.75 SAR 3.93 SAR 5.10 SAR 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 19
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 37
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 52
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 29
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 14
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 39
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.4% vs −15.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

1202 screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −53.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 1.6% · Below median
Return on assets 0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 2.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 6.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 50.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.81× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 1.23× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)42 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)6 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$4.26 HK$7.54 +77% vs 1202
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 6,900 IDR 10,509 IDR +52% vs 1202
Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited 2314 HK$3.14 HK$4.53 +44% vs 1202
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 890.00 CLP 1,264 CLP +42% vs 1202
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥15.04 ¥21.06 +40% vs 1202
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.52 ¥16.93 +25% vs 1202
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.86 €24.27 +22% vs 1202
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €22.55 €21.19 −6% vs 1202
Billerud AB BILL kr 89.75 kr 68.44 −24% vs 1202
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.65 $5.11 −47% vs 1202

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Middle East Paper Co: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Middle East Paper Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1202

Frequently asked questions

Is Middle East Paper Co (1202) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.09 SAR versus a price of 15.19 SAR, about 53% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1202?
Our model-based fair value for Middle East Paper Co is 7.09 SAR (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.19 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1202?
Middle East Paper Co has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.09 SAR (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.58 SAR, optimistic scenario 8.27 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Middle East Paper Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.09 SAR, about 53% lower versus a price of 15.19 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.58 SAR, optimistic scenario 8.27 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
Middle East Paper Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B SAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Middle East Paper Co it is 7.09 SAR per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of 15.19 SAR. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Middle East Paper Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, 1202 trades above its calculated fair value: price 15.19 SAR, fair value 7.09 SAR, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1202?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.19 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.09 SAR). For Middle East Paper Co the two are 8.10 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Middle East Paper Co worth?
The market values Middle East Paper Co at about 1.3B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is 15.19 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 7.09 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1202?
Our models span a range for Middle East Paper Co: cautious scenario 5.58 SAR, base 7.09 SAR, optimistic 8.27 SAR per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price 15.19 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1202?
Middle East Paper Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.6 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.09 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
Balance-sheet figures for Middle East Paper Co (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 1.6%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1202 from its 52-week high?
Middle East Paper Co trades at 15.19 SAR, about 42% below its 52-week high of 26.06 SAR and 10% above the low of 13.79 SAR (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.09 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Middle East Paper Co?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Middle East Paper Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price 15.19 SAR, calculated fair value 7.09 SAR (−53%), Quality Score 34/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1202 calculated?
We run Middle East Paper Co through 11 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 7.09 SAR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Middle East Paper Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was 15.19 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 7.09 SAR, about 53% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Middle East Paper Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (8.27 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of Middle East Paper Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
The market capitalisation of Middle East Paper Co is 1.3B SAR (≈ $351M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Middle East Paper Co is 1.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
Earnings per share at Middle East Paper Co are 0.3000 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
The net margin of Middle East Paper Co is 2.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Middle East Paper Co is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Middle East Paper Co is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
The operating margin of Middle East Paper Co is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
Revenue at Middle East Paper Co is growing 8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Middle East Paper Co (1202)?
Earnings per share at Middle East Paper Co are growing 193% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Middle East Paper Co (1202) generate?
The free cash flow of Middle East Paper Co is −119M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Middle East Paper Co (1202) carry?
The net debt of Middle East Paper Co is 735M SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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