Middle East Company (1202) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · SA · Market cap 1.4B SAR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 4.59 SAR to 7.45 SAR (+62.2%) since Aug 4, 2026. Share price +10.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (9.31 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.28 SAR – 48.10 SAR · fair‑value band 5.58 SAR – 9.31 SAR · the 18.74 SAR price screens above the 7.45 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Middle East Company (1202) currently trades at 18.74 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.45 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 60.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Middle East Company generated revenue of 1.0B SAR at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue declined 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.0%. Net debt stands at 735M SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 5.58 SAR (bear case) to 9.31 SAR (bull case); at 18.74 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -60%, 1202 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (12.59 SAR) versus Growth Earnings (3.93 SAR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Notify me when 1202 reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Middle East Company for Manufacturing and Producing Paper, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of container boards and industrial papers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, and Other GCC countries. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Trading.
Full company description
Middle East Company for Manufacturing and Producing Paper, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of container boards and industrial papers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, and Other GCC countries. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Trading. The Manufacturing segment offers container board and industrial paper, as well as tissue paper. The Trading segment engages in the wholesale and retail sales of paper, carton, and plastic waste. It provides containerboards comprising high performance fluting, test liner, dual use, semi-chemical fluting, kraft liner board, and white top test liner products under MEPFLUTE, MEPLINER, MEPDUAL, MEPCHEM, MEPKRAFT, and MEPWHITE brand names for use in beverages, consumer durables, detergents, industrial goods, and processed food industries; and semi-chemical fluting products under the MEPCHEM brand name for frozen and fresh food applications. The company also offers paperboards, including core boards under the MEPCORE brand name for film, tape and label, textiles, and paper applications; plasterboard liners under the MEPGYPSUM brand name for interior wall lining systems; and absorbent kraft products under the MEPLAMINATE brand name for laminated furniture and shelves, and counters and floors, as well as industrial and tissue papers. In addition, it is involved in the wholesale of waste, scrap, and other products; provision of waste management and treatment services; recycling and collection of carton waste; and manufacture, import, and export of cartons, as well as retail trade in paper and cartons. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Middle East Company reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 23.4M SAR in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.
1202 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.55 | R$3.80 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.18 | €14.21 | -39% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $8.02 | $23.77 | +196% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 109.40 | kr 49.40 | -55% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.20 | kr 217.72 | -33% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$8.21 | HK$8.74 | +6% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,000 CLP | 1,253 CLP | +25% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 77.60 | kr 48.60 | -37% |
Compare Middle East Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Middle East Company (1202) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 1202?
What is the quality score of 1202?
What is the revenue of Middle East Company (1202)?
What is the net profit margin of 1202?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Middle East Company and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.