Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd HK$1.42, price HK$0.73, upside +95.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2463 – HK$0.7250 · fair‑value band HK$0.9080 – HK$1.88 · the HK$0.7250 price screens below the HK$1.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Hong Kong Finance Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides property mortgages and personal loans under the Hong Kong Finance brand in Hong Kong. The company operates in two segments, Secured Property Mortgage Loans and Unsecured Property Owner Loans.
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Hong Kong Finance Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides property mortgages and personal loans under the Hong Kong Finance brand in Hong Kong. The company operates in two segments, Secured Property Mortgage Loans and Unsecured Property Owner Loans. It offers personal loans for HOS and public housing homeowners; large property loans for SMEs; SME financing; unsecured loans for property owners; mortgage further advance; carpark mortgage; mortgage loan transfer services; village house, tenement flat, shop, revolving, and industrial building mortgage loans; and yacht loans. The company is also involved in property investment holding activities. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong. Hong Kong Finance Group Limited is a subsidiary of Tin Ching Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273) currently trades at HK$0.7250, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.42, implying the stock looks roughly 48.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$3.49 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$0.7250 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.4300, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.9080 (bear) to HK$1.88 (bull), the price of HK$0.7250 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$164M in FY2026 versus HK$155M in FY2022, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$70.1M in FY2026, compounding −0.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$301M (≈ $38.3M) · P/E ratio 4.1 · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 42.7% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 96%, 1273 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.9080Fair Value HK$1.42Bull HK$1.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0110 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +6.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.1% vs 3.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.72% → 57%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 52% above its own trend.
Compare Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 90 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+95.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.0% · Below median
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)48.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)63.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1273
Frequently asked questions
Is Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.42 versus a price of HK$0.7250, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1273?
Our model-based fair value for Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is HK$1.42 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.7250.
What is the quality score of 1273?
Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.42 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9080, optimistic scenario HK$1.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.42, about +96% upside versus a price of HK$0.7250 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9080, optimistic scenario HK$1.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$145M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd it is HK$1.42 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.7250. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1273 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.7250, fair value HK$1.42, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1273?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.7250); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.42). For Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd the two are HK$0.6950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd worth?
The market values Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd at about HK$301M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.7250; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1273?
Our models span a range for Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.9080, base HK$1.42, optimistic HK$1.88 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.7250). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1273?
Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 8.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1273 from its 52-week high?
Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd trades at HK$0.7250, at its 52-week high of HK$0.7250 and 50% above the low of HK$0.4838 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Federal National Mortgage Association, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.7250, calculated fair value HK$1.42 (+96%), Quality Score 61/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1273 calculated?
We run Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.7250. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.42, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9080). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.9080 to HK$1.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273) come from?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd grew +0.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
The market capitalisation of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is HK$301M (≈ $38.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is 1.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd are HK$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
The dividend yield of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is 6.6% (payout 68.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
The net margin of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is 42.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
The operating margin of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is 63.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
Revenue at Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273)?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd are growing +96.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273) generate?
The free cash flow of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is −HK$68.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd (1273) carry?
The net debt of Hong Kong Finance Group Ltd is HK$202M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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