United Carton Industries Company (1323) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of United Carton Industries Company SAR 42.66, price SAR 25.28, upside +68.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
16‑month range 22.60 SAR – 46.58 SAR · fair‑value band 27.95 SAR – 65.66 SAR · the 25.28 SAR price screens below the 42.66 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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United Carton Industries Company provides various paper-based packaging solutions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally.
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United Carton Industries Company provides various paper-based packaging solutions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company's corrugated carton products include regular slotted containers, half slotted containers, die cut containers, wrap around cases, high graphic flexographic printing, stitched boxes, and digitally printed corrugated stands and boxes; folding carton products comprise crush lock bottom cases, flat supply products, and round cheese boxes; pulp products; and containerboard products comprising test liner and fluting. Its products are used in various industries, including food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, hardware, shipping, and storage and retail packaging. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
United Carton Industries Company (1323) currently trades at 25.28 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 42.66 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 40.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 91.90 SAR per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the 25.28 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9.85 SAR, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 27.95 SAR (bear) to 65.66 SAR (bull), the price of 25.28 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
United Carton Industries Company reported revenue of 1.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 341M SAR in FY2021, a compound +42.5%/yr. Reported net income was 79.1M SAR in FY2025, compounding +157.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0B SAR (≈ $269M) · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) 2.11 SAR · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 17.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 69%, 1323 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 27.95 SARFair Value 42.66 SARBull 65.66 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4479 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+293.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+55.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+49.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 5%
2025 sits 139% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+67% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "United Carton Industries Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1323
Frequently asked questions
Is United Carton Industries Company (1323) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 42.66 SAR versus a price of 25.28 SAR, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1323?
Our model-based fair value for United Carton Industries Company is 42.66 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 25.28 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1323?
United Carton Industries Company has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 42.66 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 27.95 SAR, optimistic scenario 65.66 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Carton Industries Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 42.66 SAR, about +69% upside versus a price of 25.28 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 27.95 SAR, optimistic scenario 65.66 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
United Carton Industries Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does United Carton Industries Company pay a dividend?
United Carton Industries Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, United Carton Industries Company would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +42.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1323 use?
Our models discount United Carton Industries Company at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For United Carton Industries Company that is +5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has United Carton Industries Company (1323) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at United Carton Industries Company grew +42.5 % a year. The price currently implies +5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of United Carton Industries Company (1323) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into United Carton Industries Company (+5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.37 %: that much free cash flow United Carton Industries Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Carton Industries Company it is 42.66 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 25.28 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Carton Industries Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1323 trades below its calculated fair value: price 25.28 SAR, fair value 42.66 SAR, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1323?
No. The price is what the market pays today (25.28 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (42.66 SAR). For United Carton Industries Company the two are 17.38 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Carton Industries Company worth?
The market values United Carton Industries Company at about 1.0B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 25.28 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 42.66 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1323?
Our models span a range for United Carton Industries Company: cautious scenario 27.95 SAR, base 42.66 SAR, optimistic 65.66 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 25.28 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1323?
United Carton Industries Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 42.66 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Carton Industries Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1323 from its 52-week high?
United Carton Industries Company trades at 25.28 SAR, about 16% below its 52-week high of 29.94 SAR and 12% above the low of 22.60 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 42.66 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Carton Industries Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Carton Industries Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 25.28 SAR, calculated fair value 42.66 SAR (+69%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1323 calculated?
We run United Carton Industries Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 42.66 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. United Carton Industries Company currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 25.28 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 42.66 SAR, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Carton Industries Company right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (27.95 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (27.95 SAR to 65.66 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of United Carton Industries Company
How large is the market capitalisation of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The market capitalisation of United Carton Industries Company is 1.0B SAR (≈ $269M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Carton Industries Company is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
Earnings per share at United Carton Industries Company are 2.11 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The dividend yield of United Carton Industries Company is 5.9% (payout 71.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The net margin of United Carton Industries Company is 5.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Carton Industries Company is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Carton Industries Company is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
The operating margin of United Carton Industries Company is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
Revenue at United Carton Industries Company is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +55.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Carton Industries Company (1323)?
Earnings per share at United Carton Industries Company are growing +258% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does United Carton Industries Company (1323) carry?
The net debt of United Carton Industries Company is 31.6M SAR (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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