SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of SIG Combibloc Group AG CHF 9.54, price CHF 13.17, upside -27.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 7.83 – CHF 25.69 · fair‑value band CHF 5.64 – CHF 15.10 · the CHF 13.17 price screens above the CHF 9.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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SIG Group AG provides aseptic carton packaging systems and solutions for beverage and food products primarily in Europe, India, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas.
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SIG Group AG provides aseptic carton packaging systems and solutions for beverage and food products primarily in Europe, India, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. The company provides carton, bag-in-box, and spouted pouch packaging solutions; filling lines and other related equipment, packaging material, and after-sales services; carton sleeves, closures, and barrier film and fitments; and commodity hedging products. It operates in China, the United States, Germany, India, Brazil, the Netherlands, Australia, Austria, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Spain, and the United Arab Emirates. The company was formerly known as SIG Combibloc Group AG and changed its name to SIG Group AG in April 2022. SIG Group AG was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in Neuhausen am Rheinfall, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) currently trades at CHF 13.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 9.54, implying the stock looks roughly 38.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 10.98 per share, and 3 of the 15 models we run sit above the CHF 13.17 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 4.66, and 12 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 5.64 (bear) to CHF 15.10 (bull), the price of CHF 13.17 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SIG Combibloc Group AG reported revenue of €3.3B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€87.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 5.0B · P/E ex one-offs 23.3 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) CHF −0.2100 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin −2.7% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −28%, SIGN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 5.64Fair Value CHF 9.54Bull CHF 15.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.7% (2020) → 12.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.29× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.87× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF25.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)61· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)77· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SIG Combibloc Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIGN
Frequently asked questions
Is SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 9.54 versus a price of CHF 13.17, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIGN?
Our model-based fair value for SIG Combibloc Group AG is CHF 9.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 13.17.
What is the quality score of SIGN?
SIG Combibloc Group AG has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 9.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 5.64, optimistic scenario CHF 15.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SIG Combibloc Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 9.54, about −28% upside versus a price of CHF 13.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 5.64, optimistic scenario CHF 15.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
SIG Combibloc Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does SIG Combibloc Group AG pay a dividend?
SIG Combibloc Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SIG Combibloc Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by +15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIGN use?
Our models discount SIG Combibloc Group AG at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SIG Combibloc Group AG that is +15.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SIG Combibloc Group AG grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +15.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SIG Combibloc Group AG (+15.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.41 %: that much free cash flow SIG Combibloc Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SIG Combibloc Group AG it is CHF 9.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of CHF 13.17. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SIG Combibloc Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SIGN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 13.17, fair value CHF 9.54, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 13.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 9.54). For SIG Combibloc Group AG the two are CHF 3.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SIG Combibloc Group AG worth?
The market values SIG Combibloc Group AG at about CHF 5.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is CHF 13.17; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 9.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIGN?
Our models span a range for SIG Combibloc Group AG: cautious scenario CHF 5.64, base CHF 9.54, optimistic CHF 15.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price CHF 13.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for SIG Combibloc Group AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIGN from its 52-week high?
SIG Combibloc Group AG trades at CHF 13.17, about 15% below its 52-week high of CHF 15.56 and 68% above the low of CHF 7.83 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 9.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SIG Combibloc Group AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SIG Combibloc Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price CHF 13.17, calculated fair value CHF 9.54 (−28%), Quality Score 41/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIGN calculated?
We run SIG Combibloc Group AG through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 9.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. SIG Combibloc Group AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was CHF 13.17. Our model-based fair value is CHF 9.54, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SIG Combibloc Group AG right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (CHF 5.64 to CHF 15.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of SIG Combibloc Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The market capitalisation of SIG Combibloc Group AG is CHF 5.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 23.3 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 1.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Earnings per share at SIG Combibloc Group AG are CHF −0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The dividend yield of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The net margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG is −2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SIG Combibloc Group AG is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The operating margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Revenue at SIG Combibloc Group AG is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Earnings per share at SIG Combibloc Group AG are growing +8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) carry?
The net debt of SIG Combibloc Group AG is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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