Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (1398) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$2.5T
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from HK$12.86 to HK$13.82 (+7.5%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 92% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$10.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.59 – HK$7.64 · fair‑value band HK$10.36 – HK$17.27 · the HK$7.20 price screens below the HK$13.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (1398) currently trades at HK$7.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.82, implying the stock looks roughly 91.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited generated revenue of HK$673B at a net margin of 55.2%. Revenue grew 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at HK$6.6T. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$10.36 (bear case) to HK$17.27 (bull case); at HK$7.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 92%, 1398 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$29.72) versus Dividend Discount (HK$6.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments.
Full company description
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans, trade financing, deposit-taking activities, corporate wealth management services, custody services, and various types of corporate intermediary services, as well as corporate loans to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions. Its Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit-taking activities, card business, personal wealth management services, and various types of personal intermediary services to individual customers. The Treasury Operations segment engages in money market transactions, investment securities, and foreign exchange transaction activities. In addition, the company is involved in the fund raising, fund sales, asset management, and other businesses; financial leasing; insurance businesses, such as life, health, and accident insurance, as well as reinsurance; debt-for-equity swaps; and issuance of wealth management products, wealth management advisory, and consulting services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited reported revenue of HK$1.5T in FY2025 versus HK$658B in FY2021, a compound +23.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$359B in FY2025, compounding +0.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Should Value Investors Buy Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) Stock?
- Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (SEHK:1398) Tests Repo Based Loans, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $341.10 | $278.99 | -18% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $59.67 | $55.89 | -6% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.16 | ¥17.20 | +69% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $100.52 | $84.67 | -16% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.37 | ¥11.85 | +86% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$305.74 | C$190.48 | -38% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.88 | ¥9.80 | +67% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFCS | C$23.58 | C$27.40 | +16% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 51.02 PLN | 55.60 PLN | +9% |
| UBS Group UBSN | 939.75 MXN | 534.84 MXN | -43% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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