Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$21.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$2.17 to HK$2.29 (+5.5%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 53% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.23 – HK$4.39 · fair‑value band HK$1.72 – HK$2.86 · the HK$1.50 price screens below the HK$2.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) currently trades at HK$1.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.29, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$8.1B at a net margin of 26.2%. Revenue grew 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.4%. Net debt stands at HK$171B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.72 (bear case) to HK$2.86 (bull case); at HK$1.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 53%, 1551 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$4.42) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.07). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. provides banking services in China. It operates through four segments: Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, Financial Market Business, and Others.
Full company description
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. provides banking services in China. It operates through four segments: Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, Financial Market Business, and Others. The company offers demand, time, pledged, and other deposits; certificates of deposit; personal consumption, business, and mortgage loans; personal and collateral loans; credit cards overdraft; residential mortgage loans; and corporate loans. It provides investment banking products; short, medium, and long-term loans; domestic and international settlements, and bill acceptance and discounting services; financing services; e-bank services; financial leasing; and securitization of credit assets. In addition, the company offers money market placements, investments and repurchasing, and foreign exchange transactions; foreign currency remittance; foreign currency exchange; settlement and sale of foreign exchange; foreign credit investigations; inter-bank placements; debit and credit cards; payment collection and insurance agency, safe locker, advisory and attestation, securities investment fund and insurance assets trusteeship, and cash management services; and agency services for issuing and underwriting government bonds. Further, it is involved in securities investment fund sales business; trades in government and financial bonds; and provides discounted bill, wealth management, and private banking services, as well as Internet, mobile, and WeChat banking services; and Jinmi Mall, e-commerce platform. Additionally, the company operates its outlets through non-local and sub-branches; and provides ATMs, self-service inquiry terminals, and smart service terminals, and smart banking outlets. The company was formerly known as Guangzhou Rural Credit Cooperative Unions and changed its name to Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was founded in 1952 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$34.8B in FY2025 versus HK$10.9B in FY2021, a compound +33.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.1B in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1088 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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