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Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd HK$2.50, price HK$1.50, upside +66.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE100002FR4

GR Thin data Oct 1, 2026

Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd

1551 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$2.50 · Strongly undervalued (+66.7%)
!Quality 50/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +21.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.1% dividend yield · Well covered
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 14 out of 100
!Weak on past: 10 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$4.39 HK$1.23 Fair Value HK$2.50 Jun 2017 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.23 – HK$4.39 · fair‑value band HK$1.88 – HK$3.13 · the HK$1.50 price screens below the HK$2.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. provides banking services in China. It operates through four segments: Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, Financial Market Business, and Others.

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Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. provides banking services in China. It operates through four segments: Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, Financial Market Business, and Others. The company offers demand, time, pledged, and other deposits; certificates of deposit; personal consumption, business, and mortgage loans; personal and collateral loans; credit cards overdraft; residential mortgage loans; and corporate loans. It provides investment banking products; short, medium, and long-term loans; domestic and international settlements, and bill acceptance and discounting services; financing services; e-bank services; financial leasing; and securitization of credit assets. In addition, the company offers money market placements, investments and repurchasing, and foreign exchange transactions; foreign currency remittance; foreign currency exchange; settlement and sale of foreign exchange; foreign credit investigations; inter-bank placements; debit and credit cards; payment collection and insurance agency, safe locker, advisory and attestation, securities investment fund and insurance assets trusteeship, and cash management services; and agency services for issuing and underwriting government bonds. Further, it is involved in securities investment fund sales business; trades in government and financial bonds; and provides discounted bill, wealth management, and private banking services, as well as Internet, mobile, and WeChat banking services; and Jinmi Mall, e-commerce platform. Additionally, the company operates its outlets through non-local and sub-branches; and provides ATMs, self-service inquiry terminals, and smart service terminals, and smart banking outlets. The company was formerly known as Guangzhou Rural Credit Cooperative Unions and changed its name to Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was founded in 1952 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) currently trades at HK$1.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.50, implying the stock looks roughly 40.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$5.09 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$1.50 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.17, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.88 (bear) to HK$3.13 (bull), the price of HK$1.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported revenue of 34.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +33.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$21.6B (≈ $2.8B) · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 0.64 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin 32.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 67%, 1551 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.88 Fair Value HK$2.50 Bull HK$3.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$5.31 HK$5.06 HK$5.02 76
Gordon GGM HK$0.6800 HK$1.36 HK$2.06 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.6800 HK$1.17 HK$1.43 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.6800 HK$1.36 HK$2.06 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.6800 HK$1.17 HK$1.43 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.63 HK$2.18 HK$2.72 63
P/B Multiple HK$2.14 HK$2.85 HK$3.56 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.80 HK$5.09 HK$7.60 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.31 HK$5.06 HK$5.02 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.7% vs −12.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.60% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1057 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +66.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 26.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 32.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.22× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.63× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)14 · sector 46
PAST (return on equity)10 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)61 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.95 €77.62 −8%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.79 €4.02 −41%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.07 $6.86 −38%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €99.30 €105.99 +7%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹735.60 ₹406.44 −45%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €13.23 €8.46 −36%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,327 ₹615.71 −54%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1551

Frequently asked questions

Is Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.50 versus a price of HK$1.50, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1551?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is HK$2.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.50.
What is the quality score of 1551?
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.88, optimistic scenario HK$3.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.50, about +67% upside versus a price of HK$1.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.88, optimistic scenario HK$3.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.2 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1551 use?
Our models discount Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd grew +21.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.65 %: that much free cash flow Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd it is HK$2.50 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$1.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1551 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.50, fair value HK$2.50, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1551?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.50). For Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd the two are HK$1.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd at about HK$21.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1551?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.88, base HK$2.50, optimistic HK$3.13 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$1.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1551?
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 2.4%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1551 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at HK$1.50, about 11% below its 52-week high of HK$1.68 and 9% above the low of HK$1.37 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$1.50, calculated fair value HK$2.50 (+67%), Quality Score 50/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1551 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.50. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.50, about +67% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is HK$21.6B (≈ $2.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 3.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 5.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 32.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd are growing +3.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1551) carry?
The net debt of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is HK$171B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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