Modern Chinese Medicine Group (1643) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$864M
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −12.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4080). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2210 to HK$0.4080) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2450 – HK$3.20 · fair‑value band HK$0.2210 – HK$0.4080 · the HK$0.8300 price screens above the HK$0.3315 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
Modern Chinese Medicine Group (1643) currently trades at HK$0.8300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3315, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Modern Chinese Medicine Group generated revenue of HK$145M at a net margin of -9.3%. Revenue declined 41.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$230M. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2210 (bear case) to HK$0.4080 (bull case); at HK$0.8300, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -60%, 1643 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of proprietary Chinese medicines in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of proprietary Chinese medicines in the People's Republic of China. It provides vigour and vitality supplement, circulation enhancement pills, cardiotonic enhancement capsules, kidney invigoration pill, heart wellness capsules, menstrual discomfort relief, liver detox tablets, additional ingredient Huoxiang Zheng Qi pill, liver-dispersing and stomach regulating pills, and fever- removing and detoxification pills. The company offers its products as therapeutics for the treatment of qi-deficiency and blood-statis, cardio-cerebrovascular, digestive and gastrointestinal, gynecological, and symptoms of COVID-19 and similar illnesses. It also provides business support, technical, and consulting services. The company serves elderlies and middle-aged customers. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Chengde, China. Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Modern Biotechnology Group Holdings Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Modern Chinese Medicine Group reported revenue of HK$141M in FY2025 versus HK$361M in FY2021, a compound −20.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$13.2M in FY2025.
1643 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,182 | $396.77 | -66% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $257.59 | $169.04 | -34% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $254.49 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Roche Holding 1RO | €392.80 | €226.68 | -42% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €108.08 | €121.54 | +12% |
| Novartis AG NVSN | 2,742 MXN | 2,379 MXN | -13% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $171.61 | $129.54 | -25% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 329.90 | kr 409.46 | +24% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $363.39 | $252.02 | -31% |
| Sanofi SNYN | 770.00 MXN | 1,251 MXN | +63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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