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Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt HK$0.39, price HK$0.70, upside -43.7%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · HK · ISIN KYG6181B1068

MC Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt

1643 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.3910 · Strongly overvalued (−44%)
!Quality 28/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −14.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.3% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 2/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$3.20 HK$0.2450 Fair Value HK$0.3910 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2450 – HK$3.20 · fair‑value band HK$0.2635 – HK$0.4930 · the HK$0.6950 price screens above the HK$0.3910 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of proprietary Chinese medicines in the People's Republic of China.

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Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of proprietary Chinese medicines in the People's Republic of China. It provides vigour and vitality supplement, circulation enhancement pills, cardiotonic enhancement capsules, kidney invigoration pill, heart wellness capsules, menstrual discomfort relief, liver detox tablets, additional ingredient Huoxiang Zheng Qi pill, liver-dispersing and stomach regulating pills, and fever- removing and detoxification pills. The company offers its products as therapeutics for the treatment of qi-deficiency and blood-statis, cardio-cerebrovascular, digestive and gastrointestinal, gynecological, and symptoms of COVID-19 and similar illnesses. It also provides business support, technical, and consulting services. The company serves elderlies and middle-aged customers. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Chengde, China. Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Modern Biotechnology Group Holdings Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643) currently trades at HK$0.6950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3910, implying the stock looks roughly 77.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.2635 (bear) to HK$0.4930 (bull), the price of HK$0.6950 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt reported revenue of 141M CNY in FY2025 versus 361M CNY in FY2021, a compound −20.9%/yr. Reported net income was −13.2M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$864M (≈ $110M) · P/S ratio 5.95 · Net margin −9.3% · Return on equity −2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.0% · Operating margin −23.1% · Revenue (TTM) 145M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −41.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −44%, 1643 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.2635 Fair Value HK$0.3910 Bull HK$0.4930
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3500 HK$0.4600 HK$0.6900 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3500 HK$0.4600 HK$0.6900 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 2
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 25
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
30.6% (2020) → −11.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

1643 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −48% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −23% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −42% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.22× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.76× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Eli Lilly and Company LLY $1,170 $791.40 −32%
Johnson & Johnson, JNJ $269.19 $169.04 −37%
AbbVie Inc ABBV $265.21 $259.66 −2%
Roche Holding RO CHF 375.20 CHF 329.11 −12%
Merck & Co MRK $150.91 $129.12 −14%
Novartis AG NOVN CHF 116.46 CHF 119.10 +2%
Amgen Inc AMGN $406.09 $446.70 +10%
Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD $151.37 $198.51 +31%
Pfizer Inc PFE $27.93 $24.87 −11%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY $61.15 $75.98 +24%

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Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt · Fair Value
HK$0.3910 −78%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1643

Frequently asked questions

Is Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3910 versus a price of HK$0.6950, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1643?
Our model-based fair value for Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is HK$0.3910 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6950.
What is the quality score of 1643?
Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3910 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2635, optimistic scenario HK$0.4930. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3910, about −44% upside versus a price of HK$0.6950 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2635, optimistic scenario HK$0.4930. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 145M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt it is HK$0.3910 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6950. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1643 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6950, fair value HK$0.3910, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1643?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3910). For Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt the two are HK$0.3040 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt worth?
The market values Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt at about HK$864M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6950; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3910 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1643?
Our models span a range for Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt: cautious scenario HK$0.2635, base HK$0.3910, optimistic HK$0.4930 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.6950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
Balance-sheet figures for Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1643 from its 52-week high?
Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt trades at HK$0.6950, about 78% below its 52-week high of HK$3.20 and 39% above the low of HK$0.5000 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3910 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.6950, calculated fair value HK$0.3910 (−44%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1643 calculated?
We run Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3910, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.6950. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3910, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4930). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2635 to HK$0.4930) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt

How large is the market capitalisation of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
The market capitalisation of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is HK$864M (≈ $110M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is 5.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
The net margin of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is −9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is 13.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
The operating margin of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is −23.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
Revenue at Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is growing −41.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −29.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643)?
Earnings per share at Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt are growing −22.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643) generate?
The free cash flow of Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt is −16.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt (1643) hold?
Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co Lt holds more cash than debt, 230M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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