Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$551B (≈ $70.3B) · ISIN CNE1000029W3

What is Postal Savings Bank of China really worth?

PS Postal Savings Bank of China 1658 · HK

PriceHK$5.48

Fair ValueHK$8.34

Upside+52.2%

Quality45/100

Below-average quality, trading 34% below our fair value of HK$8.34.

As of Aug 21, 2026, the fair value of Postal Savings Bank of China is HK$8.34 per share against a price of HK$5.48, so the fair value sits 52% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +7.9 %/yr)

!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)

!Moderate moat 60/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·3.98% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$6.26 – HK$10.42

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price +12.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.26). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.89 – HK$5.72 · fair‑value band HK$6.26 – HK$10.42 · the HK$5.48 price screens below the HK$8.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) currently trades at HK$5.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.34, implying the stock looks roughly 34.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$9.24 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$5.48 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$5.10, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Postal Savings Bank of China generated revenue of HK$323B at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue declined 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$390B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.26 (bear case) to HK$10.42 (bull case); at HK$5.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 52%, 1658 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.3504 per share, which is 4.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Residual Income best evidence HK$7.24 HK$7.88 HK$10.37 74

DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.85 HK$5.10 HK$6.49 64

Gordon GGM HK$2.85 HK$6.23 HK$10.48 63

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$2.85 HK$6.23 HK$10.48 63

DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.85 HK$5.10 HK$6.49 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$6.93 HK$9.24 HK$11.56 63

P/B Multiple HK$8.86 HK$11.82 HK$14.77 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$4.22 HK$5.66 HK$8.44 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income best evidence HK$7.24 HK$7.88 HK$10.37 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$9.24) versus Dividend Discount (HK$5.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.5 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 1.35 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.7317 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5

Dividend yield 4.0% payout 29.8%

Net margin 24.6% FY2025

Return on equity 8.2% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% avg 5y

Operating margin 35.2% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$323B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −0.3% 3y avg −7.4%

EPS growth (YoY) −16.7%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$88.2B FY2025

Net cash HK$390B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 33

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 35

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 100

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 24

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 68

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 93

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 45

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 55

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 0

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services for retail and corporate customers in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services for retail and corporate customers in the People's Republic of China. It offers demand, time, personal call, time/demand optional, call, negotiated, foreign currency exchange deposit; passbooks and certificate of deposits; credit, mortgage, government, farmer, and merchant express loan; business easy mix, agriculture aid plus, domestic remittance and exchange, and payment and collection agency; cross-border remittance, personal exchange settlement and sale, and foreign currency exchange services; personal housing, auto, consumer, and personal education loans; and bank cards, as well as online banking services. The company also provides pledge, syndicated, land reserve, town rebuild, commercial property mortgage, real estate development, fixed asset, project, and consignment loans. In addition, it offers check, promissory notes, bank and commercial draft, remittance, consignment collection, and collection with acceptance settlement services; accounts management, payments and collection, liquidity, investment and financing, information management, fund monitoring, and bank-enterprise direct link services; draft acceptance and discounting, draft manager, and electronic commercial draft services; foreign exchange deposit, foreign exchange settlement, sale, and conversion, settlement, and trade finance; custody services; and bill rediscount, interbank financing, investment, and market trading services. It operates through directly operated outlets and agency outlets. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Beijing, China. Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Post Group Corporation Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Postal Savings Bank of China reported revenue of 346B CNY in FY2025 versus 399B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was 85.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100

Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$346B

Latest YoY

+7.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−7.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+7.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+7.4%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+3.0% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−1.0%

Dividend yield4.0%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −1.0% vs 10Y 3.8%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.74.8% (2020) → 27.7% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop38% (2015) · in HKD

Revenue −3.5%/yr

FY21 399B CNY

FY22 435B CNY

FY23 317B CNY

FY24 321B CNY

FY25 346B CNY

Net income +2.8%/yr

FY21 76.2B CNY

FY22 85.2B CNY

FY23 86.3B CNY

FY24 86.5B CNY

FY25 85.1B CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.3 % p.a.

Revenue per share +6.3 %

of which total revenue +11.3 % · buybacks/dilution −4.5 %

EBIT margin +4.0 %

Tax rate +0.6 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −5.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Postal Savings Bank of China · Fair Value
HK$8.34 +34%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1658" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Postal Savings Bank of China · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$8.34</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+34%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Postal Savings Bank of China Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1658

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1070 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +52% · Top 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median

Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 27% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 35% · Below median

Revenue growth 0% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median

Debt / equity 0.13× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.55× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 1.71× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.69× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Postal Savings Bank of China deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 yearsless than minus 40 % per year

Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+7.9 % p.a.

Sector median revenue growth+8.1 %

FCF yield on price13.44 %

Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.6 %

The price sits beyond what a cash-flow model can represent: the valuation rests on more than today's free cash flow. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE100 · sector 32

FUTURE0 · sector 45

PAST33 · sector 41

HEALTH93 · sector 85

DIVIDEND80 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05	75.65 SGD	40.48 SGD	−46%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968	HK$47.96	HK$76.51	+60%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.78	€5.66	−17%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB	$23.18	$24.12	+4%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€104.54	€144.64	+38%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€84.71	€77.62	−8%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$10.74	$9.69	−10%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,423	₹835.21	−41%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	31.07 SGD	19.80 SGD	−36%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK	€13.52	€8.85	−35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.34 versus a price of HK$5.48, about +52% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 1658?

Our model-based fair value for Postal Savings Bank of China is HK$8.34 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.48.

What is the quality score of 1658?

Postal Savings Bank of China has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.34 (as of Aug 21, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.26, optimistic scenario HK$10.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Postal Savings Bank of China stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$8.34, about +52% upside versus a price of HK$5.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.26, optimistic scenario HK$10.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?

Postal Savings Bank of China reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$323B (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1658?

The net profit margin of Postal Savings Bank of China is about 27.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Postal Savings Bank of China pay a dividend?

Postal Savings Bank of China currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.98% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).

What growth is priced into Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Postal Savings Bank of China would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Aug 21, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1658 use?

Our models discount Postal Savings Bank of China at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

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