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Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank VND 18,805, price VND 22,600, upside -16.8%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · VN · ISIN VN000000HDB1

HC Thin data Oct 12, 2026

Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank

HDB · VN

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +27.7 %/yr in VND)
Highly profitable · 52.4% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Quality 58/100
Wide moat 80/100 · thin data
Insider activity 45/100
Fair value 18,805 VND · Overvalued (−16.8%)
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

22,846 VND 5,483 VND Fair Value 18,805 VND Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 5,483 VND – 22,846 VND · fair‑value band 13,446 VND – 30,650 VND · the 22,600 VND price screens above the 18,805 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.

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Company profile

Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank provides various banking products and services to individuals and corporates in Vietnam and internationally.

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Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank provides various banking products and services to individuals and corporates in Vietnam and internationally. The company offers current account, savings, demand, online saving, and regular term deposits; health, hospital allowance, death and disability, accident, critical illness, home, civil liability for car, borrower, assets risks, fire and special risks, and protection and investment insurances; business, agriculture, car, consumer, and real estate loans; overdraft, paper discount, and intermediary payment services; foreign exchange and international transfers; debit, prepaid, and credit cards; remittance services; and collection and payment services, hold, nostro accounts, money deposits, and other services. It also provides working capital financing, medium and long-term loans, and guarantees; supply chain financing, import and export financing and services, and cross-border payments; and derivatives services. In addition, the company offers cash management, such as deposit and online deposit, collection services, cash payment services, authorized payment services, payroll/commission payment services, collection and disbursement services, digital cash services, bill payments, tax payments, and counter and electronic tax payments. Further, it provides online banking services, such as internet banking, SMS banking, and mobile banking, as well as ATM services. Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB) currently trades at 22,600 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18,805 VND, 16.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 29,638 VND per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 22,600 VND price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 8,801 VND, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 13,446 VND (bear) to 30,650 VND (bull), the price of 22,600 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank reported revenue of 42.7T VND in FY2025 versus 16.4T VND in FY2021, a compound +27.0%/yr. Reported net income was 16.5T VND in FY2025, compounding +28.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 139T VND · P/E ratio 5.9 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) 3,811 VND · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 38.7% · Return on equity 25.5% · Return on assets 2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −17%, HDB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 13,446 VND Fair Value 18,805 VND Bull 30,650 VND
Price 22,600 VND · Upside -16.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,976 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 20,789 VND 29,638 VND 58,754 VND 71
Gordon GGM 5,111 VND 10,183 VND 15,420 VND 67
DDM Multi-Stage 5,111 VND 8,801 VND 10,749 VND 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 5,111 VND 10,183 VND 15,420 VND 67
DDM Multi-Stage 5,111 VND 8,801 VND 10,749 VND 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 32,148 VND 42,864 VND 53,580 VND 63
P/B Multiple 15,853 VND 21,137 VND 26,422 VND 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7,549 VND 10,116 VND 15,098 VND 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income 20,789 VND 29,638 VND 58,754 VND 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Per share before 2025divided by the spin-off factor 1.2969
2025 sits 69% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

HDB screens overvalued: fair value 17% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −16.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 25.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 52.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 69.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 35.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.84× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.82× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)11 · sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 50
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)42 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.76 ¥52.73 +23% vs HDB
BNP Paribas SA BNP €95.09 €105.99 +11% vs HDB
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €77.72 €77.12 −1% vs HDB
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €11.93 €8.46 −29% vs HDB
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 29.06 SGD 19.78 SGD −32% vs HDB
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.24 €4.06 −35% vs HDB
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.03 $6.80 −38% vs HDB
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹702.75 ₹406.44 −42% vs HDB
DBS Group D05 73.94 SGD 40.39 SGD −45% vs HDB
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,358 ₹615.71 −55% vs HDB

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Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank · Fair Value
18,805 VND −17%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDB

Frequently asked questions

Is Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18,805 VND versus a price of 22,600 VND, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HDB?
Our model-based fair value for Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 18,805 VND (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 22,600 VND.
What is the quality score of HDB?
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18,805 VND (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13,446 VND, optimistic scenario 30,650 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18,805 VND, about −17% upside versus a price of 22,600 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 13,446 VND, optimistic scenario 30,650 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 36.4T VND (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
Does Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank pay a dividend?
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.09% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 12, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank it is 18,805 VND per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of 22,600 VND. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, HDB trades above its calculated fair value: price 22,600 VND, fair value 18,805 VND, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (22,600 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18,805 VND). For Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank the two are 3,795 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank worth?
The market values Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank at about 139T VND (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is 22,600 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 18,805 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDB?
Our models span a range for Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank: cautious scenario 13,446 VND, base 18,805 VND, optimistic 30,650 VND per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price 22,600 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDB?
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9 (as of Oct 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18,805 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity 25.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDB from its 52-week high?
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank trades at 22,600 VND, about 1% below its 52-week high of 22,846 VND and 29% above the low of 17,557 VND (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18,805 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price 22,600 VND, calculated fair value 18,805 VND (−17%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDB calculated?
We run Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18,805 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was 22,600 VND. Our model-based fair value is 18,805 VND, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (13,446 VND to 30,650 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank

How large is the market capitalisation of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The market capitalisation of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 139T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 2.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
Earnings per share at Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank are 3,811 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The dividend yield of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 2.1% (payout 12.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The net margin of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 38.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
The operating margin of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 69.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
Revenue at Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is growing +35.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB)?
Earnings per share at Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank are growing +66.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB) generate?
The free cash flow of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 75.1T VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB) carry?
The net debt of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank is 35.7T VND (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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