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Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ascletis Pharma Inc stock HK$2.01, price HK$4.90, upside -59.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare HK · ISIN KYG0520K1094

AP Ascletis Pharma Inc logo Thin data Nov 1, 2026

Ascletis Pharma Inc

1672 · HK
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 59% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 44/100
Revenue last quarter 26% below a year ago.
Fair value HK$2.01 · Strongly overvalued (−59.0%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −43.4 %/yr in CNY)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/6)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$19.15 HK$0.7800 Fair Value HK$2.01 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.7800 – HK$19.15 · fair‑value band HK$1.32 – HK$2.51 · the HK$4.90 price screens above the HK$2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Ascletis Pharma Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of pharmaceutical products in Mainland China. The company's commercial products include Ritonavir tablet; and ASCLEVIR and GANOVO for use in the treatment of Hepatitis C virus.

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It is also developing ASC22 for treating CHB and HIV functional cure; ASC10 for treating respiratory syncytia virus; ASC10 and ASC11 to treat COVID-19; ASC40, ASC41, and ASC43F FDC for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; and ASC42 for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis.

In addition, the company is developing ASC40 to treat recurrent glioblastoma; ASC61 for advanced solid tumors; and ASC40, an oral small molecule for the treatment of acne.

Further, it offers ASC30, for obesity; ASC47 for muscle-preserving weight loss treatment; and ASC39, a potent and amylin-selective oral small molecule amylin receptor agonist. Ascletis Pharma Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672) currently trades at HK$4.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.01, 59.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: HK$1.32 (bear) to HK$2.51 (bull), the price of HK$4.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Ascletis Pharma Inc reported revenue of 2.0M CNY in FY2025 versus 76.9M CNY in FY2021, a compound −59.7%/yr. Reported net income was −360M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$5.3B (≈ $672M) Small · Return on equity −28.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.1% · Operating margin −73,801% · Revenue (TTM) 947K CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −26.2% · Free cash flow −331M CNY · Net cash 1.4B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −59%, 1672 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.32 Fair Value HK$2.01 Bull HK$2.51
Price HK$4.90 · Upside -59.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.32 HK$2.01 HK$2.51 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.32 HK$2.01 HK$2.51 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 9
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 8
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 52
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+58.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−66.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−43.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−620.3% (2020) → −23,853.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

1672 screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 589 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Above median
Fair Value upside −59.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −17.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −26.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.31× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $927.89 $1,275 +37% vs 1672
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $540.00 $594.00 +10% vs 1672
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,487,000 KRW 1,635,700 KRW +10% vs 1672
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,912 kr 4,303 +10% vs 1672
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$45.06 HK$49.57 +10% vs 1672
argenx SE ARGX $882.48 $908.40 +3% vs 1672
CSL Limited CSL A$200.73 A$178.58 −11% vs 1672
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $370.33 $254.12 −31% vs 1672
Celltrion, Inc 068270 189,300 KRW 74,945 KRW −60% vs 1672
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.18 $19.01 −72% vs 1672

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Ascletis Pharma Inc · Fair Value
HK$2.01 −59%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ascletis Pharma Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1672

Frequently asked questions

Is Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.01 versus a price of HK$4.90, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1672?
Our model-based fair value for Ascletis Pharma Inc is HK$2.01 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.90.
What is the quality score of 1672?
Ascletis Pharma Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.01 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.32, optimistic scenario HK$2.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ascletis Pharma Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.01, about −59% upside versus a price of HK$4.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.32, optimistic scenario HK$2.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
Ascletis Pharma Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 947K CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ascletis Pharma Inc it is HK$2.01 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of HK$4.90. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ascletis Pharma Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 1672 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$4.90, fair value HK$2.01, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1672?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.01). For Ascletis Pharma Inc the two are HK$2.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ascletis Pharma Inc worth?
The market values Ascletis Pharma Inc at about HK$5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.90; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1672?
Our models span a range for Ascletis Pharma Inc: cautious scenario HK$1.32, base HK$2.01, optimistic HK$2.51 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price HK$4.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ascletis Pharma Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −28.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1672 from its 52-week high?
Ascletis Pharma Inc trades at HK$4.90, about 74% below its 52-week high of HK$19.15 and at the low of HK$4.90 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ascletis Pharma Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ascletis Pharma Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price HK$4.90, calculated fair value HK$2.01 (−59%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1672 calculated?
We run Ascletis Pharma Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ascletis Pharma Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was HK$4.90. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.01, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ascletis Pharma Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.32 to HK$2.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Ascletis Pharma Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
The market capitalisation of Ascletis Pharma Inc is HK$5.3B (≈ $672M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ascletis Pharma Inc is −28.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ascletis Pharma Inc is −14.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
The operating margin of Ascletis Pharma Inc is −73,801% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672)?
Revenue at Ascletis Pharma Inc is growing −26.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −66.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672) generate?
The free cash flow of Ascletis Pharma Inc is −331M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672) hold?
Ascletis Pharma Inc holds more cash than debt, 1.4B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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