EN DE

GF Securities Co Ltd (1776) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$134B (≈ $17.1B) · ISIN CNE100001TQ9

What is GF Securities Co Ltd really worth?

GS GF Securities Co Ltd 1776 · HK
PriceHK$18.75
Fair ValueHK$15.73
Upside−16.1%
Quality42/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 19% above our fair value of HK$15.73.

As of Aug 17, 2026, the fair value of GF Securities Co Ltd is HK$15.73 per share against a price of HK$18.75, so the fair value sits 16% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

Watch GF Securities Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 39.2% net margin
✓Ranks above peers (8/12)
✓Wide moat 70/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.4 %/yr)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 4 out of 100

For context

·3.20% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range HK$11.80 – HK$19.66

Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price +8.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$20.96 HK$5.78 Fair Value HK$15.73 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.78 – HK$20.96 · fair‑value band HK$11.80 – HK$19.66 · the HK$18.75 price screens above the HK$15.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

GF Securities Co Ltd (1776) currently trades at HK$18.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.73, implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 17 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, GF Securities Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$40.0B at a net margin of 39.2%. Revenue grew 70.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$168B. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$11.80 (bear case) to HK$19.66 (bull case); at HK$18.75, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −16%, 1776 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.9141 per share, which is 5.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple HK$11.91 HK$15.88 HK$19.85 55
NCAV (Graham) HK$9.34 HK$12.52 HK$18.68 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple HK$11.91 HK$15.88 HK$19.85 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$9.34 HK$12.52 HK$18.68 54

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$15.88) versus Asset-Based (HK$12.52). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).

Notify me when 1776 reaches fair value

Put 1776 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 7.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 2.39 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.94 price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7
Dividend yield 3.2% payout 30.9%
Net margin 31.1% FY2025
Return on equity 10.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 55.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$40.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +70.1% 3y avg +10.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +75.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$28.5B FY2025
Net cash HK$168B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 29
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

GF Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides capital market services in China. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Trading and Institution, and Investment Management.

Full company description

GF Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides capital market services in China. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Trading and Institution, and Investment Management. The company offers equity and debt financing, financial consulting, and mergers and acquisitions; and brokerage services, investment advisory, margin financing, securities lending, and various financial products. It also provides equity sales and trading, derivative and fixed-income products, OTC liquidity services, investment research, and custodian services; and asset and fund management, private equity, and alternative investments, as well as qualified foreign and domestic institutional investors. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

GF Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 44.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 41.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was 13.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$44.1B
Latest YoY
+20.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (31Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+30.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +7.7% (approximate, leans on 2025) · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+4.5%
Dividend yield3.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.5% vs 10Y 4.5%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38.2% (2020) → 40.7% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop60% (2011) · in HKD
⚠ Rate leans on 2025: that final year sits 61% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted
Revenue +1.5%/yr
FY21 41.5B CNY
FY22 33.0B CNY
FY23 33.0B CNY
FY24 36.6B CNY
FY25 44.1B CNY
Net income +6.0%/yr
FY21 10.9B CNY
FY22 7.9B CNY
FY23 7.0B CNY
FY24 9.6B CNY
FY25 13.7B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.6 %

of which total revenue +6.1 % · buybacks/dilution −1.5 %

EBIT margin −4.8 %
Tax rate +1.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1776 screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

GF Securities Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$15.73 −19%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GF Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1776.HK

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 455 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −22% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 55% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 70% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.57× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.86× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.36× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE4 · sector 11
FUTURE100 · sector 91
PAST41 · sector 30
HEALTH72 · sector 94
DIVIDEND64 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $214.77 $138.97 −35%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $1,034 $756.89 −27%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $110.16 $66.17 −40%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $104.26 $30.94 −70%
Macquarie Group MQG A$251.87 A$75.58 −70%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥27.93 ¥17.68 −37%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.87 ¥18.62 +4%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥19.42 ¥4.77 −75%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥25.78 ¥14.17 −45%
Huatai Securities Co 601688 ¥19.56 ¥19.26 −2%

Compare GF Securities Co Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Financial Services stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator (Options) Splits an option premium into intrinsic and extrinsic (time) value. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is GF Securities Co Ltd (1776) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$15.73 versus a price of HK$18.75, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1776?
Our model-based fair value for GF Securities Co Ltd is HK$15.73 (as of Aug 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$18.75.
What is the quality score of 1776?
GF Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GF Securities Co Ltd (1776)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$15.73 (as of Aug 17, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$11.80, optimistic scenario HK$19.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GF Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$15.73, about −16% upside versus a price of HK$18.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$11.80, optimistic scenario HK$19.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GF Securities Co Ltd (1776)?
GF Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$40.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1776?
The net profit margin of GF Securities Co Ltd is about 39.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 39.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does GF Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
GF Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.20% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 17, 2026).
Free · no account needed

Watch GF Securities Co Ltd in the live analysis

One click puts GF Securities Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.