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Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation (1820) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$827M (≈ $105M) · ISIN KYG968461031

What is Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation really worth?

PM Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation 1820 · HK
PriceHK$2.76
Fair ValueHK$1.96
Upside−28.9%
Quality49/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 41% above our fair value of HK$1.96.

As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation is HK$1.96 per share against a price of HK$2.76, so the fair value sits 29% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.1% net margin
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 7/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range HK$0.7100 to HK$3.21
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.7100 – HK$3.21

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Share price −8.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.7100 to HK$3.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$6.00 HK$1.83 Fair Value HK$1.96 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.83 – HK$6.00 · fair‑value band HK$0.7100 – HK$3.21 · the HK$2.76 price screens above the HK$1.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation (1820) currently trades at HK$2.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.96, implying the stock looks roughly 40.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$4.81 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$2.76 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.6600, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation generated revenue of HK$2.1B at a net margin of −2.1%. Revenue declined 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −8.9%. Net debt stands at HK$916M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.7100 (bear case) to HK$3.21 (bull case); at HK$2.76, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −29%, 1820 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$3.69 HK$4.74 HK$6.71 81
Growth DCF HK$3.79 HK$4.81 HK$6.53 80
Owner Earnings HK$0.8600 HK$1.17 HK$1.74 76
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.69 HK$4.74 HK$6.71 81
Owner Earnings HK$0.8600 HK$1.17 HK$1.74 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$3.70 HK$5.38 HK$7.91 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.00 HK$4.19 HK$5.84 76
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.56 HK$4.93 HK$6.46 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.27 HK$4.21 HK$5.24 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.5600 HK$0.6600 HK$0.7500 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.5600 HK$0.7000 HK$0.8700 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$2.92 HK$3.99 HK$5.07 67
EV/Revenue HK$4.04 HK$5.90 HK$7.76 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.7800 HK$1.05 HK$1.56 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.79 HK$4.81 HK$6.53 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.70 HK$5.48 HK$7.75 73

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$4.81) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.6600). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.44 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0800
Dividend yield 2.3%
Net margin −2.1% FY2025
Return on equity −8.9% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −0.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$2.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.2% 3y avg −1.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +34.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$143M FY2025
Net debt HK$916M FY2025 · ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells packaging materials in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells packaging materials in the People's Republic of China. It offers corrugated packaging products, such as single wall, double wall, and triple wall sheet boards and boxes; corrugated boxes, display boxes, paper pallets, display stands, and heavy-duty packaging products; and specialized packaging products, as well as corrugated sheet boards. The company also provides total packaging solutions; research and development, and testing laboratory services, such as research and services on packaging structural design; consultation on packaging technology; and transit simulations on packaging testing. It serves food and beverages, non-food and beverage consumables, home appliances and electronics, home furniture, home durable goods and garments, industry and machinery, e-commerce, and express delivery sectors. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation is a subsidiary of Pacific Millennium Holdings Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −44.1M CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 24/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.1B
Latest YoY
−1.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.9%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.6% (2020) → −0.8% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −3.4%/yr
FY21 2.4B CNY
FY22 2.2B CNY
FY23 2.0B CNY
FY24 2.1B CNY
FY25 2.1B CNY
Net income
FY21 43.6M CNY
FY22 22.8M CNY
FY23 22.4M CNY
FY24 −19.4M CNY
FY25 −44.1M CNY

1820 screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1820.HK

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 271 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −29% · Below median
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.44× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.22× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 13
FUTURE0 · sector 2
PAST0 · sector 21
HEALTH78 · sector 93
DIVIDEND47 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $49.25 $22.66 −54%
Packaging Corporation PKG $233.94 $122.63 −48%
International Paper Company IP $36.46 $21.44 −41%
Amcor plc AMCR $45.15 $18.79 −58%
Ball Corporation BALL $61.67 $36.57 −41%
Crown Holdings CCK $119.08 $118.59 +0%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $173.07 $113.05 −35%
CCL Industries Inc CCLA C$93.99 C$77.64 −17%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €9.74 €11.42 +17%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.66 CHF 8.32 −39%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation (1820) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.96 versus a price of HK$2.76, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1820?
Our model-based fair value for Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation is HK$1.96 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.76.
What is the quality score of 1820?
Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation (1820)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.96 (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.7100, optimistic scenario HK$3.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.96, about −29% upside versus a price of HK$2.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.7100, optimistic scenario HK$3.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation (1820)?
Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1820?
The net profit margin of Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation is about −2.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation pay a dividend?
Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).
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