BAAN Holding (1820) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SA · Market cap 1.3B SAR
Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated today
Share price −3.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.7700 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (0.2300 SAR to 0.7700 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.66 SAR – 6.01 SAR · fair‑value band 0.2300 SAR – 0.7700 SAR · the 2.09 SAR price screens above the 0.5000 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.
Analysis
BAAN Holding (1820) currently trades at 2.09 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.5000 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 76.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BAAN Holding generated revenue of 642M SAR at a net margin of -21.2%. Revenue declined 4.4% year over year. Net debt stands at 356M SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.2300 SAR (bear case) to 0.7700 SAR (bull case); at 2.09 SAR, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -76%, 1820 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (2.53 SAR) versus Multiples (0.8600 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BAAN Holding Group Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality and entertainment services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. It operates through three segments: Hotel, Entertainment, and Others.
Full company description
BAAN Holding Group Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality and entertainment services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. It operates through three segments: Hotel, Entertainment, and Others. The company engages in the establishment, management, operation, and maintenance of hotels, tourists and health resorts, furnished apartments, restaurants, and cafes; fun cities, entertainment and recreation centers, parks, and gardens; and commercial centers. It is also involved in the operation and management of electrical and children amusement games halls, as well as sport facilities projects. The company was formerly known as Abdulmohsen Al-Hokair Group and changed its name to BAAN Holding Group Company in November 2024. BAAN Holding Group Company was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BAAN Holding reported revenue of 649M SAR in FY2025 versus 708M SAR in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was −202M SAR in FY2025.
1820 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 173 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $111.29 | $62.55 | -44% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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