Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $17.9B
Hyatt Hotels Corporation
H · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $49.88 to $85.84 (+72.1%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price −7.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 52% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($162.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($18.25 to $162.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $68.40 – $202.09 · fair‑value band $18.25 – $162.29 · the $178.88 price screens above the $85.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) currently trades at $178.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.84, implying the stock looks roughly 52.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hyatt Hotels Corporation generated revenue of $3.4B at a net margin of -1.0%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.9%. Net debt stands at $4.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.25 (bear case) to $162.29 (bull case); at $178.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -52%, H screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($69.26) versus Growth DCF ($3.69). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hyatt Hotels Corporation operates as a hospitality company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Management and Franchising, Owned and Leased, and Distribution segments.
Full company description
Hyatt Hotels Corporation operates as a hospitality company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Management and Franchising, Owned and Leased, and Distribution segments. The company develops, owns, operates, manages, franchises, leases, and licenses a portfolio of properties, consisting of full-service hotels and resorts, select service hotels, and other properties, including timeshare, fractional, and other forms of residential and vacation units. It operates its properties under the Park Hyatt, Alila, Miraval, Impression by Secrets, The Unbound Collection by Hyatt, Andaz, Thompson Hotels, The Standard, Dream Hotels, The StandardX, Breathless Resorts & Spas, JdV by Hyatt, Bunkhouse Hotels, Me and All Hotels, Zoëtry Wellness & Spa Resorts, Hyatt Ziva, Hyatt Zilara, Secrets Resorts & Spas, Dreams Resorts & Spas, Hyatt Vivid Hotels & Resorts, Bahia Principe Hotels & Resorts, Alua Hotels & Resorts, Sunscape Resorts & Spas, Grand Hyatt, Hyatt Regency, Destination by Hyatt, Hyatt Centric, Hyatt Vacation Club, Hyatt, Caption by Hyatt, Unscripted by Hyatt, Hyatt Place, Hyatt House, Hyatt Studios, Hyatt Select, and UrCove brands. The company also offers Homes & Hideaways by World of Hyatt, a short-term vacation rental platform that features direct booking for short-term private home rentals in the United States, as well as distribution and destination management services; and World of Hyatt loyalty program, which allows rewards points to be redeemed for hotel nights and other rewards. It serves corporations; national, state, and regional associations; specialty market accounts, including social, government, military, educational, religious, and fraternal organizations; travel agency and luxury organizations; and a group of individual consumers. Hyatt Hotels Corporation was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hyatt Hotels Corporation reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +49.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$52.0M in FY2025.
H screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hyatt Invites Diners to Savour Everyday Dining Moments Made With Love and Served With Rewards
- H Q2 Deep Dive: Premium Leisure and International Strength Offset Regional Headwinds
Peer Group
Lodging · 169 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $111.29 | $62.55 | -44% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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