H World Group (HTHT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $13.1B
H World Group
HTHT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $47.39 to $47.55 (+0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($36.87 to $81.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $36.87 (bear) to $81.69 (bull), base $47.55. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 71/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.48 – $54.63 · fair‑value band $36.87 – $81.69 · the $42.37 price screens below the $47.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
H World Group (HTHT) currently trades at $42.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.55, implying the stock looks roughly 12.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, H World Group generated revenue of $25.9B at a net margin of 19.3%. Revenue grew 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 46.4%. Net debt stands at $25.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.87 (bear case) to $81.69 (bull case); at $42.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at 12%, HTHT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($549.63) versus Asset-Based ($27.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
H World Group Limited develops and operates leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
H World Group Limited develops and operates leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China. The company operates hotels under its own brands, such as HanTing Hotel, Ni Hao Hotel, Hi Inn, Elan Hotel, Zleep Hotels, Ibis Hotel, JI Hotel, Orange Hotel, Starway Hotel, Ibis Styles Hotel, Crystal Orange Hotel, IntercityHotel, Grand JI Hotel, Manxin Hotel, Mercure Hotel, Madison Hotel, Novotel Hotel, CitiGO Hotel, MAXX, Joya Hotel, Blossom House, Steigenberger Hotels & Resorts, Jaz in the City, Grand Mercure Hotel, Steigenberger Icons, and Song Hotels. The company was formerly known as Huazhu Group Limited and changed its name to H World Group Limited in June 2022. H World Group Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
H World Group reported revenue of $24.6B in FY2025 versus $12.8B in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $4.9B in FY2025.
Watch HTHT: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- H World Group Limited Schedules Second Quarter and Interim of 2026 Earnings Release on August 17, 2026
- Wall Street Analysts See a 39.35% Upside in H World Group (HTHT): Can the Stock Really Move This High?
- H World Group Limited Announces Appointment of Director
- HTHT vs. CHH: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
Peer Group
Lodging · 170 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
| Makkah Construction and Development Company 4100 | 81.95 SAR | 36.25 SAR | -56% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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