Huayu Expressway Group Ltd (1823) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$674M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +20.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.7800 to HK$2.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3600 – HK$5.85 · fair‑value band HK$0.7800 – HK$2.05 · the HK$1.42 price screens below the HK$1.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Huayu Expressway Group Ltd (1823) currently trades at HK$1.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 2.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Huayu Expressway Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$140M at a net margin of -25.7%. Revenue declined 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.8%. Net debt stands at HK$169M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.7800 (bear case) to HK$2.05 (bull case); at HK$1.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 219% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 2%, 1823 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$1.24) versus Multiples (HK$0.3100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Huayu Expressway Group Limited, an investment holding company, constructs, operates, and manages the Qing Ping Expressway in Mainland China. The company operates through Qing Ping Expressway and Liquor and Spirits segments. It also distributes liquor and spirits under the Huamaojiu and Xijiushaofang brand names.
Full company description
Huayu Expressway Group Limited, an investment holding company, constructs, operates, and manages the Qing Ping Expressway in Mainland China. The company operates through Qing Ping Expressway and Liquor and Spirits segments. It also distributes liquor and spirits under the Huamaojiu and Xijiushaofang brand names. In addition, it is involved in winemaking and other related businesses. Huayu Expressway Group Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. Huayu Expressway Group Limited is a subsidiary of Velocity International Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Huayu Expressway Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$137M in FY2025 versus HK$688M in FY2021, a compound −33.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$35.2M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Infrastructure Operations · 68 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.36 | ¥10.25 | +10% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥12.01 | ¥14.47 | +20% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.87 | ¥8.68 | -20% |
| Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo en América Latina, S.A. IDEALB1 | 43.00 MXN | 33.24 MXN | -23% |
| Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura, S. A. B. de C. V. PINFRA | 281.25 MXN | 945.00 MXN | +236% |
| Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade S.A MOTV3 | R$14.03 | R$29.97 | +114% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$6.26 | HK$18.50 | +196% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥13.16 | ¥13.79 | +5% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥16.15 | ¥14.90 | -8% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.37 | ¥9.16 | +9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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