EN DE

Huayu Expressway Group Ltd (1823) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$674M

HE Huayu Expressway Group Ltd 1823 · HK
PriceHK$1.42
Fair ValueHK$1.45
Upside+2.1%
Quality30/100
Watch Huayu Expressway Group Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Weak Growth
Loss-making · -25.7% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Narrow moat 2/100
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.7800 – HK$2.05 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +20.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

Fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, review alerts and the diversification check: 14 days of Pro free, no card.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.7800 to HK$2.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.85 HK$0.3600 Fair Value HK$1.45 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3600 – HK$5.85 · fair‑value band HK$0.7800 – HK$2.05 · the HK$1.42 price screens below the HK$1.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Huayu Expressway Group Ltd (1823) currently trades at HK$1.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 2.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Huayu Expressway Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$140M at a net margin of -25.7%. Revenue declined 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.8%. Net debt stands at HK$169M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.7800 (bear case) to HK$2.05 (bull case); at HK$1.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 219% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 2%, 1823 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$0.7500 HK$1.35 HK$1.86 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.7500 HK$1.24 HK$1.45 61
EV/EBITDA HK$0.2500 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3700 54
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.7500 HK$1.35 HK$1.86 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.7500 HK$1.24 HK$1.45 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$0.2500 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3700 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.7600 HK$1.02 HK$1.52 50

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$1.24) versus Multiples (HK$0.3100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Notify me when 1823 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$140M
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.8%
Net margin -25.7%
Return on equity -3.8%
Free cash flow −HK$101M FY2025
Operating margin -23.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0600
EPS growth (YoY) -96.5%
Net debt HK$169M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Huayu Expressway Group Limited, an investment holding company, constructs, operates, and manages the Qing Ping Expressway in Mainland China. The company operates through Qing Ping Expressway and Liquor and Spirits segments. It also distributes liquor and spirits under the Huamaojiu and Xijiushaofang brand names.

Full company description

Huayu Expressway Group Limited, an investment holding company, constructs, operates, and manages the Qing Ping Expressway in Mainland China. The company operates through Qing Ping Expressway and Liquor and Spirits segments. It also distributes liquor and spirits under the Huamaojiu and Xijiushaofang brand names. In addition, it is involved in winemaking and other related businesses. Huayu Expressway Group Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. Huayu Expressway Group Limited is a subsidiary of Velocity International Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Huayu Expressway Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$137M in FY2025 versus HK$688M in FY2021, a compound −33.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$35.2M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$137M
Latest YoY
−31.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−30.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−22.5%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.3%
Revenue −33.2%/yr
FY21 HK$688M
FY22 HK$410M
FY23 HK$407M
FY24 HK$198M
FY25 HK$137M
Net income
FY21 HK$86.4M
FY22 HK$49.0M
FY23 HK$329M
FY24 −HK$8.5M
FY25 −HK$35.2M

Watch 1823: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Huayu Expressway Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1823

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 68 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +2% · Below median
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -26% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -23% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.14× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.12× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.61× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 36 · sector 46
FUTURE 0 · sector 10
PAST 0 · sector 25
HEALTH 93 · sector 71
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 81

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Compare Huayu Expressway Group Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Industrials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Huayu Expressway Group Ltd (1823) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.45 versus a price of HK$1.42, about +2% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1823?
Our model-based fair value for Huayu Expressway Group Ltd is HK$1.45 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.42.
What is the quality score of 1823?
Huayu Expressway Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Huayu Expressway Group Ltd (1823)?
Huayu Expressway Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$140M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1823?
The net profit margin of Huayu Expressway Group Ltd is about -25.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Huayu Expressway Group Ltd and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.