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Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co (000429) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 27.8B CNY

GP Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 · SHE
Price¥13.29
Fair Value¥13.79
Upside+3.8%
Quality63/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 35.5% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
4.56% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Wide moat 74/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥7.28 – ¥22.50 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 12, 2026, revised from ¥17.93 to ¥13.79 (−23.1%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (¥7.28 to ¥22.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥14.45 ¥5.01 Fair Value ¥13.79 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.01 – ¥14.45 · fair‑value band ¥7.28 – ¥22.50 · the ¥13.29 price screens below the ¥13.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co (000429) currently trades at ¥13.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.79, implying the stock looks roughly 3.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co generated revenue of 4.5B CNY at a net margin of 35.5%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at 3.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.28 (bear case) to ¥22.50 (bull case); at ¥13.29, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 4%, 000429 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥5.91 ¥10.89 ¥18.94 80
Residual Income ¥5.64 ¥7.08 ¥16.61 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥2.59 ¥4.73 ¥7.37 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.88 ¥11.06 ¥19.53 38
Owner Earnings ¥0.5800 ¥2.12 ¥4.64 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥2.59 ¥4.67 ¥7.29 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥12.62 ¥24.42 ¥38.89 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥9.03 ¥17.36 ¥26.57 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥3.58 ¥5.85 ¥8.92 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥10.20 ¥19.96 ¥34.25 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥7.86 ¥14.92 ¥24.37 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.85 ¥22.91 ¥31.09 54
Lynch FV ¥5.64 ¥8.06 ¥10.48 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥5.64 ¥8.06 ¥10.48 46
EPV ¥6.53 ¥7.89 ¥9.09 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥4.80 ¥9.97 ¥15.82 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥4.80 ¥8.41 ¥10.46 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥13.55 ¥18.06 ¥22.58 63
P/S Multiple ¥3.20 ¥4.27 ¥5.34 58
P/B Multiple ¥10.97 ¥14.62 ¥18.28 55
EV/EBIT ¥17.61 ¥24.03 ¥30.46 53
EV/EBITDA ¥17.81 ¥24.30 ¥30.79 54
EV/Revenue ¥1.02 ¥2.17 ¥3.33 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.65 ¥3.56 ¥5.31 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.91 ¥10.89 ¥18.94 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥2.59 ¥4.73 ¥7.37 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.64 ¥7.08 ¥16.61 76
ROIC Compounder ¥6.98 ¥9.81 ¥13.68 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥10.07 ¥14.38 ¥18.69 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (¥14.62) versus Asset-Based (¥3.56). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.5B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.7%
Net margin 35.5%
Return on equity 15.6%
Free cash flow 1.3B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 17.3
More key figures
Operating margin 64.6%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.7700
Dividend yield 4.6%
EPS growth (YoY) -29.0%
Net debt 3.8B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 39
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 57
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd., invests, constructs, charges, manages, and maintains expressways, toll highways and bridges in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd., invests, constructs, charges, manages, and maintains expressways, toll highways and bridges in the People's Republic of China. The company is also involved in the maintenance, cleaning, and service of automobile rescue; parking lot charges; design, production, release, and agency of advertisements at home and abroad; land development; warehousing activities; research and development, and service of transportation technology; and equity investment, management, and consultation services. The company was formerly known as Guangdong FuKai Expressway Co., Ltd and changed its name to Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. in June 1993. Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co reported revenue of ¥4.5B in FY2025 versus ¥5.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.8B in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
4.5B CNY
Latest YoY
−2.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.3%
Avg. growth/yr (32Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.8%
Revenue −4.1%/yr
FY21 ¥5.3B
FY22 ¥4.2B
FY23 ¥4.9B
FY24 ¥4.6B
FY25 ¥4.5B
Net income +1.4%/yr
FY21 ¥1.7B
FY22 ¥1.3B
FY23 ¥1.6B
FY24 ¥1.6B
FY25 ¥1.8B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +7.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.2 pp

of which total revenue +8.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.8 pp

EBIT margin +4.8 pp
Tax rate −1.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000429

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside +4% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 65% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.90× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.50× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 6.18× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.55× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 38 · sector 48
FUTURE 14 · sector 12
PAST 62 · sector 27
HEALTH 55 · sector 71
DIVIDEND 91 · sector 78

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 12, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co (000429) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.79 versus a price of ¥13.29, about +4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 000429?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co is ¥13.79 (as of Aug 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥13.29.
What is the quality score of 000429?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co (000429)?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000429?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co is about 35.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 35.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co pay a dividend?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.64% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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