Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd ¥13.78, price ¥12.50, upside +10.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.08 – ¥14.62 · fair‑value band ¥7.37 – ¥19.12 · the ¥12.50 price screens below the ¥13.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd., invests, constructs, charges, manages, and maintains expressways, toll highways and bridges in the People's Republic of China.
Show more
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd., invests, constructs, charges, manages, and maintains expressways, toll highways and bridges in the People's Republic of China. The company is also involved in the maintenance, cleaning, and service of automobile rescue; parking lot charges; design, production, release, and agency of advertisements at home and abroad; land development; warehousing activities; research and development, and service of transportation technology; and equity investment, management, and consultation services. The company was formerly known as Guangdong FuKai Expressway Co., Ltd and changed its name to Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. in June 1993. Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) currently trades at ¥12.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.78, implying the stock looks roughly 9.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥14.62 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥12.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.56, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.37 (bear) to ¥19.12 (bull), the price of ¥12.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.2B CNY (≈ $3.9B) · P/E ratio 17.3 · P/S ratio 6.95 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.7700 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 40.3% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 10%, 000429 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥7.37Fair Value ¥13.78Bull ¥19.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1223 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 71%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.0% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)35% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)65% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.90× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000429
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.78 versus a price of ¥12.50, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000429?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is ¥13.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.50.
What is the quality score of 000429?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.37, optimistic scenario ¥19.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.78, about +10% upside versus a price of ¥12.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.37, optimistic scenario ¥19.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +13.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000429 use?
Our models discount Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd that is +13.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies +13.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (+13.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.97 %: that much free cash flow Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd it is ¥13.78 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥12.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000429 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥12.50, fair value ¥13.78, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000429?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.78). For Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd the two are ¥1.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd at about 26.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.50; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000429?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.37, base ¥13.78, optimistic ¥19.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥12.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000429?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.4, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 000429?
The PEG ratio of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 0.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000429 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd trades at ¥12.50, about 15% below its 52-week high of ¥14.62 and 21% above the low of ¥10.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥12.50, calculated fair value ¥13.78 (+10%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000429 calculated?
We run Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥13.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥12.50. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.78, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (¥7.37 to ¥19.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd grew +7.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 26.2B CNY (≈ $3.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 6.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd are ¥0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 4.8% (payout 78.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The net margin of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 40.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 64.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
Revenue at Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd are growing −29.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd (000429) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd is 3.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
