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Natural Food International Holding Ltd (1837) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$3.4B

NF Natural Food International Holding Ltd 1837 · HK
PriceHK$1.63
Fair ValueHK$2.72
Upside+67.4%
Quality75/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.99% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 59/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.95 – HK$3.29 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −4.4% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 67% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.95). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.77 HK$0.3216 Fair Value HK$2.72 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3216 – HK$1.77 · fair‑value band HK$1.95 – HK$3.29 · the HK$1.63 price screens below the HK$2.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Natural Food International Holding Ltd (1837) currently trades at HK$1.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.72, implying the stock looks roughly 67.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Natural Food International Holding Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.5B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 30.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1,000M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.95 (bear case) to HK$3.29 (bull case); at HK$1.63, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 137% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 67%, 1837 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.54 HK$2.24 HK$3.32 80
Residual Income HK$0.7800 HK$1.02 HK$2.77 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.61 HK$2.43 HK$3.45 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.55 HK$2.29 HK$3.48 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.90 HK$2.89 HK$4.47 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.61 HK$2.45 HK$3.56 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.71 HK$2.64 HK$3.79 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.98 HK$3.18 HK$4.53 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.54 HK$2.31 HK$3.44 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.64 HK$2.44 HK$3.62 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.81 HK$2.82 HK$4.20 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.8300 HK$3.43 HK$4.68 54
Lynch FV HK$0.8700 HK$1.24 HK$1.61 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.8700 HK$1.24 HK$1.61 46
EPV HK$1.42 HK$1.58 HK$1.71 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3200 HK$0.6400 HK$0.9700 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3200 HK$0.5500 HK$0.6700 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.91 HK$2.55 HK$3.19 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.38 HK$1.85 HK$2.31 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.55 HK$2.06 HK$2.58 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.16 HK$2.73 HK$3.29 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.92 HK$2.41 HK$2.90 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.67 HK$2.19 HK$2.71 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3900 HK$0.5200 HK$0.7700 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.54 HK$2.24 HK$3.32 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.61 HK$2.43 HK$3.45 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.7800 HK$1.02 HK$2.77 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.52 HK$1.80 HK$2.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.48 HK$2.12 HK$2.76 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.45) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.5200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.2%
Net margin 10.5%
Return on equity 16.5%
Free cash flow HK$202M FY2025
P/E ratio 11.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 13.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500
Dividend yield 4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +65.7%
Net cash HK$1,000M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84

Profitability 76
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Natural Food International Holding Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells natural health food products in China. It sells its products through a network of offline channels, including supermarket counter business and offline shelf business, as well as online channels, including major e-commerce platforms and WeChat member stores.

Full company description

Natural Food International Holding Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells natural health food products in China. It sells its products through a network of offline channels, including supermarket counter business and offline shelf business, as well as online channels, including major e-commerce platforms and WeChat member stores. The company was formerly known as Roomy Development Holdings Limited and changed its name to Natural Food International Holding Limited in May 2018. Natural Food International Holding Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Natural Food International Holding Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.5B in FY2025 versus HK$1.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$266M in FY2025, compounding +32.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.5B
Latest YoY
+22.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.4%
Revenue +11.9%/yr
FY21 HK$1.6B
FY22 HK$1.7B
FY23 HK$1.8B
FY24 HK$2.1B
FY25 HK$2.5B
Net income +32.4%/yr
FY21 HK$86.5M
FY22 HK$116M
FY23 HK$152M
FY24 HK$188M
FY25 HK$266M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +16.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.8 pp

of which total revenue +8.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.3 pp

EBIT margin +5.3 pp
Tax rate +0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Natural Food International Holding Ltd · Fair Value
HK$2.72 +67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Natural Food International Holding Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1837

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 652 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +67% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.99× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.33× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 23
FUTURE 100 · sector 19
PAST 66 · sector 28
HEALTH 100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 80 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,507 ₹362.37 -76%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,646 ₹1,870 -67%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,062 ₹327.27 -69%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 7,550 IDR 12,864 IDR +70%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,219,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -17%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹352.60 ₹144.77 -59%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 61,600 VND 52,858 VND -14%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,665 IDR 2,699 IDR +62%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,630 IDR 4,350 IDR -6%
Nongshim Co 004370 389,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Natural Food International Holding Ltd (1837) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.72 versus a price of HK$1.63, about +67% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1837?
Our model-based fair value for Natural Food International Holding Ltd is HK$2.72 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.63.
What is the quality score of 1837?
Natural Food International Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Natural Food International Holding Ltd (1837)?
Natural Food International Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1837?
The net profit margin of Natural Food International Holding Ltd is about 10.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Natural Food International Holding Ltd pay a dividend?
Natural Food International Holding Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.99% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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