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China Longevity Group Company Limited (1863) Fair Value & Analysis

Other · HK · Market cap HK$1.2B

CL China Longevity Group Company Limited 1863 · HK
PriceHK$1.37
Fair ValueHK$0.6700
Upside-51.1%
Quality46/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.5500 – HK$0.6700 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 20 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Below-average quality, and screening another 51% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.37 HK$1.37 Fair Value HK$0.6700 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.37 – HK$1.37 · fair‑value band HK$0.5500 – HK$0.6700 · the HK$1.37 price screens above the HK$0.6700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Longevity Group Company Limited (1863) currently trades at HK$1.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6700, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Other sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Net debt stands at HK$546M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 22.4 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.5500 (bear case) to HK$0.6700 (bull case); at HK$1.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Other peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -51%, 1863 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.6900 HK$0.7000 HK$0.6400 76
Gordon GGM HK$0.2600 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6500 70
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5500 HK$0.7900 HK$1.03 68
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2800 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0500 HK$0.4800 HK$1.01 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.5200 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0700 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.1500 HK$0.5800 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.2300 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3400 HK$1.10 HK$1.47 54
Lynch FV HK$0.2400 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4500 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4500 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.2600 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6500 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.2600 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5000 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.6500 HK$0.8600 HK$1.08 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.6500 HK$0.8600 HK$1.08 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.6500 HK$0.8600 HK$1.08 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.0200 HK$0.1900 HK$0.3500 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.4700 HK$0.7900 HK$1.10 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.1400 HK$0.3200 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4700 HK$0.6300 HK$0.9400 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.6900 HK$0.7000 HK$0.6400 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5500 HK$0.7900 HK$1.03 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.7900) versus DCF Models (HK$0.1900). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Return on equity 573%
Free cash flow HK$1.9M FY2025
P/E ratio 22.4 as of Jul 2, 2026
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0598
Net debt HK$546M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

There is no Profile data available for 1863.HK.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Longevity Group Company Limited reported revenue of HK$1.2B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$43.2M in FY2025, compounding −20.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.2B
Latest YoY
+0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.9%
Revenue −5.0%/yr
FY21 HK$1.4B
FY22 HK$927M
FY23 HK$934M
FY24 HK$1.2B
FY25 HK$1.2B
Net income −20.3%/yr
FY21 HK$107M
FY22 HK$46.2M
FY23 HK$63.0M
FY24 HK$55.6M
FY25 HK$43.2M

1863 screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Longevity Group Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1863

Peer Group

Other · 369 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −51% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Revenue growth 0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.72× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Other median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 80.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.1× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 10
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 0
HEALTH 64 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 49 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Longevity Group Company Limited (1863) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6700 versus a price of HK$1.37, about −51% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1863?
Our model-based fair value for China Longevity Group Company Limited is HK$0.6700 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.37.
What is the quality score of 1863?
China Longevity Group Company Limited has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the net profit margin of 1863?
The net profit margin of China Longevity Group Company Limited is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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