SouthGobi Resources Ltd (1878) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · HK · Market cap HK$652M
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated today
Share price +6.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 94% undervalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$2.35 to HK$4.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6500 – HK$6.33 · fair‑value band HK$2.35 – HK$4.49 · the HK$1.76 price screens below the HK$3.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.
Analysis
SouthGobi Resources Ltd (1878) currently trades at HK$1.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.42, implying the stock looks roughly 94.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, SouthGobi Resources Ltd generated revenue of HK$645M at a net margin of -23.3%. Revenue grew 37.8% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$255M. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.35 (bear case) to HK$4.49 (bull case); at HK$1.76, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -21% fair-value upside, at 94%, 1878 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Notify me when 1878 reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
SouthGobi Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated coal mining, development, and exploration company in Mongolia and China. The company primarily explores for coking and thermal coal. Its flagship project is the Ovoot Tolgoi open pit coal mine located in the Umnugobi Aimag of Mongolia.
Full company description
SouthGobi Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated coal mining, development, and exploration company in Mongolia and China. The company primarily explores for coking and thermal coal. Its flagship project is the Ovoot Tolgoi open pit coal mine located in the Umnugobi Aimag of Mongolia. The company was formerly known as SouthGobi Energy Resources Ltd. and changed its name to SouthGobi Resources Ltd. in May 2010. The company is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SouthGobi Resources Ltd reported revenue of HK$609M in FY2025 versus HK$43.4M in FY2021, a compound +93.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$172M in FY2025.
Watch 1878: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥44.07 | ¥34.97 | -21% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,965 | ₹891.11 | -70% |
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 16,175 IDR | 3,551 IDR | -78% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.08 | ¥23.90 | -5% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥22.09 | ¥13.24 | -40% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹409.30 | ₹464.01 | +13% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.93 | ¥13.91 | -0% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥26.48 | ¥20.72 | -22% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.27 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,560 IDR | 2,878 IDR | +12% |
Compare SouthGobi Resources Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Discover undervalued stocks
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is SouthGobi Resources Ltd (1878) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 1878?
What is the quality score of 1878?
What is the revenue of SouthGobi Resources Ltd (1878)?
What is the net profit margin of 1878?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track SouthGobi Resources Ltd and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.