PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk IDR 2,949, price IDR 2,600, upside +13.4%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 278.67 IDR – 2,840 IDR · fair‑value band 2,216 IDR – 3,834 IDR · the 2,600 IDR price screens below the 2,949 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the coal and mining business in Indonesia. It operates through Coal Mining and Trading; Mining Services; Logistics; and Others segments. The company provides trading, transportation, warehousing, quarrying, cargo handling, and mining and transportation support services.
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PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the coal and mining business in Indonesia. It operates through Coal Mining and Trading; Mining Services; Logistics; and Others segments. The company provides trading, transportation, warehousing, quarrying, cargo handling, and mining and transportation support services. It is involved in the agriculture, construction, and seaport service activities, as well as repair and installation of machines, power supply, water treatment, and forestry and industry related activities. In addition, the company provides investment, trading and power plant, electric power supply, metal processing, and stone sand and other clays quarrying services; and transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity. It also exports its products to China, India, Korea, and Singapore. The company was formerly known as PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk and changed its name to PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk in November 2024. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) currently trades at 2,600 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,949 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 2,949 IDR per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the 2,600 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,735 IDR, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2,216 IDR (bear) to 3,834 IDR (bull), the price of 2,600 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $4.0B in FY2021, a compound −17.5%/yr. Reported net income was $442M in FY2025, compounding −17.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 76.3T IDR (≈ $7.6B) · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) 309.01 IDR · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 23.9% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 13%, ADRO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2,216 IDRFair Value 2,949 IDRBull 3,834 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (226.03 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.13/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+13% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADRO
Frequently asked questions
Is PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,949 IDR versus a price of 2,600 IDR, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADRO?
Our model-based fair value for PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 2,949 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,600 IDR.
What is the quality score of ADRO?
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,949 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,216 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,834 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,949 IDR, about +13% upside versus a price of 2,600 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2,216 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,834 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk it is 2,949 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,600 IDR. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADRO trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,600 IDR, fair value 2,949 IDR, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,600 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,949 IDR). For PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk the two are 349.12 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk at about 76.3T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,600 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,949 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADRO?
Our models span a range for PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 2,216 IDR, base 2,949 IDR, optimistic 3,834 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,600 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADRO?
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,949 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.7, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ADRO?
The PEG ratio of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 0.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADRO from its 52-week high?
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk trades at 2,600 IDR, about 8% below its 52-week high of 2,840 IDR and 79% above the low of 1,455 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,949 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,600 IDR, calculated fair value 2,949 IDR (+13%), Quality Score 61/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADRO calculated?
We run PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,949 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 2,600 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,949 IDR, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) come from?
Earnings per share at PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk grew +21.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin +7.8 %, tax rate +3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
The market capitalisation of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 76.3T IDR (≈ $7.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 2.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
Earnings per share at PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk are 309.01 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
The dividend yield of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 0.0% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
The net margin of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 23.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 19.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
The operating margin of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is 31.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
Revenue at PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is growing +23.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −38.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO)?
Earnings per share at PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk are growing +74.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) generate?
The free cash flow of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk is −$161M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) hold?
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk holds more cash than debt, $227M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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