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China Coal Energy (1898) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$131B

CC China Coal Energy 1898 · HK
PriceHK$10.98
Fair ValueHK$14.59
Upside+32.9%
Quality56/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.99% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/15)
Narrow moat 42/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$11.00 – HK$21.68 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$14.57 to HK$14.59 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 33% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$11.00 to HK$21.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$14.88 HK$2.68 Fair Value HK$14.59 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.68 – HK$14.88 · fair‑value band HK$11.00 – HK$21.68 · the HK$10.98 price screens below the HK$14.59 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Coal Energy (1898) currently trades at HK$10.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$14.59, implying the stock looks roughly 32.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Coal Energy generated revenue of HK$144B at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue declined 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at HK$37.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$11.00 (bear case) to HK$21.68 (bull case); at HK$10.98, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -21% fair-value upside, at 33%, 1898 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$6.18 HK$9.35 HK$13.82 80
Residual Income HK$10.32 HK$11.23 HK$14.51 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.30 HK$12.29 HK$17.89 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$6.04 HK$9.57 HK$14.85 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.04 HK$3.47 HK$5.62 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.30 HK$12.30 HK$18.65 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$18.10 HK$32.22 HK$48.66 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$8.10 HK$13.77 HK$19.65 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$6.50 HK$10.94 HK$16.81 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$13.62 HK$24.66 HK$39.42 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$7.28 HK$11.95 HK$17.57 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$7.24 HK$20.95 HK$27.66 54
Lynch FV HK$4.33 HK$6.19 HK$8.04 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$4.33 HK$6.19 HK$8.04 46
EPV HK$46.77 HK$54.69 HK$61.61 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.89 HK$8.09 HK$12.84 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.89 HK$6.24 HK$8.50 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$11.18 HK$14.91 HK$18.64 63
P/S Multiple HK$9.79 HK$13.05 HK$16.32 58
P/B Multiple HK$13.58 HK$18.11 HK$22.63 55
EV/EBIT HK$40.84 HK$54.69 HK$68.53 53
EV/EBITDA HK$27.93 HK$37.47 HK$47.02 54
EV/Revenue HK$8.45 HK$12.36 HK$16.28 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$6.05 HK$8.11 HK$12.10 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$6.18 HK$9.35 HK$13.82 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.30 HK$12.29 HK$17.89 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$10.32 HK$11.23 HK$14.51 76
ROIC Compounder HK$49.15 HK$60.40 HK$72.34 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$9.46 HK$13.51 HK$17.56 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$14.91) versus Earnings-Based (HK$6.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$144B
Revenue growth (YoY) -10.9%
Net margin 12.3%
Return on equity 10.7%
Free cash flow HK$8.0B FY2025
P/E ratio 7.9 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 16.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.7900
Dividend yield 4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -3.3%
Net debt HK$37.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Coal Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Coal, Coal Chemical, Coal Mining Equipment, and Finance.

Full company description

China Coal Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Coal, Coal Chemical, Coal Mining Equipment, and Finance. It offers thermal and coking coal products; polyolefin, methanol, urea, and ammonium nitrate; and coal mining machinery and equipment. The company also engages in financial activities; thermal power generation; aluminum processing; import of equipment and related parts; bidding services; iron ore business; road transportation; and waste disposal. It exports its products. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. China Coal Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China National Coal Group Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Coal Energy reported revenue of HK$144B in FY2025 versus HK$240B in FY2021, a compound −11.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$14.1B in FY2025, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$144B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−8.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.1%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.8%
Revenue −11.9%/yr
FY21 HK$240B
FY22 HK$221B
FY23 HK$193B
FY24 HK$182B
FY25 HK$144B
Net income +0.7%/yr
FY21 HK$13.7B
FY22 HK$18.3B
FY23 HK$19.5B
FY24 HK$18.2B
FY25 HK$14.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +32.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.1 pp

of which total revenue +11.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.2 pp

EBIT margin +24.4 pp
Tax rate −0.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Coal Energy · Fair Value
HK$14.59 +33%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Coal Energy Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1898

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +33% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.91× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.23× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 77 · sector 29
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 43 · sector 21
HEALTH 86 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 80 · sector 64

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥44.07 ¥34.97 -21%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,965 ₹891.11 -70%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.08 ¥23.90 -5%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥22.09 ¥13.24 -40%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹409.30 ₹464.01 +13%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥26.48 ¥20.72 -22%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥16.27 ¥7.20 -56%
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO 2,520 IDR 3,037 IDR +21%
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk AADI 9,350 IDR 13,935 IDR +49%
Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group 000983 ¥6.76 ¥3.60 -47%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Coal Energy (1898) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$14.59 versus a price of HK$10.98, about +33% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1898?
Our model-based fair value for China Coal Energy is HK$14.59 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$10.98.
What is the quality score of 1898?
China Coal Energy has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Coal Energy (1898)?
China Coal Energy reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$144B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1898?
The net profit margin of China Coal Energy is about 12.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Coal Energy pay a dividend?
China Coal Energy currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.99% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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