China Coal Energy (1898) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Coal Energy HK$15.50, price HK$10.17, upside +52.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.03 – HK$14.88 · fair‑value band HK$9.69 – HK$21.49 · the HK$10.17 price screens below the HK$15.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Coal Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Coal, Coal Chemical, Coal Mining Equipment, and Finance.
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China Coal Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Coal, Coal Chemical, Coal Mining Equipment, and Finance. It offers thermal and coking coal products; polyolefin, methanol, urea, and ammonium nitrate; and coal mining machinery and equipment. The company also engages in financial activities; thermal power generation; aluminum processing; import of equipment and related parts; bidding services; iron ore business; road transportation; and waste disposal. It exports its products. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. China Coal Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China National Coal Group Corporation.
Stock analysis
China Coal Energy (1898) currently trades at HK$10.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.50, implying the stock looks roughly 34.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$17.42 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$10.17 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.23, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$9.69 (bear) to HK$21.49 (bull), the price of HK$10.17 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
China Coal Energy reported revenue of 144B CNY in FY2025 versus 240B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 14.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$135B (≈ $17.2B) · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.7900 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at 52%, 1898 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.69Fair Value HK$15.50Bull HK$21.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.2479 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.4% vs 25.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 51%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.1% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (33 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+5.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Coal Energy Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1898
Frequently asked questions
Is China Coal Energy (1898) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$15.50 versus a price of HK$10.17, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1898?
Our model-based fair value for China Coal Energy is HK$15.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$10.17.
What is the quality score of 1898?
China Coal Energy has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Coal Energy (1898)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$15.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.69, optimistic scenario HK$21.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Coal Energy stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$15.50, about +52% upside versus a price of HK$10.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.69, optimistic scenario HK$21.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Coal Energy (1898)?
China Coal Energy reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 144B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Coal Energy pay a dividend?
China Coal Energy currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Coal Energy (1898)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Coal Energy would have to grow free cash flow by -2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1898 use?
Our models discount China Coal Energy at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Coal Energy that is -2.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Coal Energy (1898) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Coal Energy grew +0.5 % a year. The price currently implies -2.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Coal Energy (1898) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Coal Energy (-2.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.94 %: that much free cash flow China Coal Energy produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Coal Energy (1898)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Coal Energy it is HK$15.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$10.17. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Coal Energy stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1898 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$10.17, fair value HK$15.50, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1898?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$10.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$15.50). For China Coal Energy the two are HK$5.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Coal Energy worth?
The market values China Coal Energy at about HK$135B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$10.17; our models calculate a fair value of HK$15.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1898?
Our models span a range for China Coal Energy: cautious scenario HK$9.69, base HK$15.50, optimistic HK$21.49 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$10.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1898?
China Coal Energy trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$15.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 1898?
The PEG ratio of China Coal Energy is 1.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Coal Energy (1898)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Coal Energy (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1898 from its 52-week high?
China Coal Energy trades at HK$10.17, about 32% below its 52-week high of HK$14.88 and 9% above the low of HK$9.31 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$15.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Coal Energy?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Coal Energy stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$10.17, calculated fair value HK$15.50 (+52%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1898 calculated?
We run China Coal Energy through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$15.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Coal Energy currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$10.17. Our model-based fair value is HK$15.50, about +52% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Coal Energy right now?
Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$9.69 to HK$21.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Coal Energy (1898) come from?
Earnings per share at China Coal Energy grew +32.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin +24.4 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Coal Energy
How large is the market capitalisation of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The market capitalisation of China Coal Energy is HK$135B (≈ $17.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Coal Energy is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Coal Energy (1898)?
Earnings per share at China Coal Energy are HK$0.7900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The dividend yield of China Coal Energy is 4.5% (payout 58.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The net margin of China Coal Energy is 9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Coal Energy is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Coal Energy (1898)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Coal Energy is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Coal Energy (1898)?
The operating margin of China Coal Energy is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Coal Energy (1898)?
Revenue at China Coal Energy is growing −10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Coal Energy (1898)?
Earnings per share at China Coal Energy are growing −3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Coal Energy (1898) carry?
The net debt of China Coal Energy is 37.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026