Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Energy · ID · Market cap 96.9T IDR (≈ $9.7B)
At a glance
AAAdaro Andalan Indonesia TbkAADI · JK
Price12,450 IDR
Fair Value16,812 IDR
Upside+35.0%
Quality66/100
A solid business, trading 26% below our fair value of 16,812 IDR.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 16,812 IDR per share against a price of 12,450 IDR, so the fair value sits 35% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y −14.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Moderate moat 54/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: MediumRange 12,274 IDR to 21,854 IDR
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from 13,814 IDR to 16,812 IDR (+21.7%) since Sep 2, 2026. Share price +35.7% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (21 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
21‑month range 5,085 IDR – 12,450 IDR · fair‑value band 12,274 IDR – 21,854 IDR · the 12,450 IDR price screens below the 16,812 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) currently trades at 12,450 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,812 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 25.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 16,354 IDR per share, and 14 of the 20 models we run sit above the 12,450 IDR price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4,517 IDR, and 6 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of $4.9B at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 7.6. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: 12,274 IDR (bear) to 21,854 IDR (bull), the price of 12,450 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 35%, AADI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,134 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio7.6
P/S ratio1.18P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)1,638 IDRprice ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6
Net margin15.5%FY2025
Return on equity24.2%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)25.9%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin19.0%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$4.9BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+2.5%3y avg −14.0%
EPS growth (YoY)+18.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$535MFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality66/100
Of which business quality 65
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Profitability65
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum99
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance82
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations.
Full company description
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations. In addition, it engages in construction, operation, and maintenance of drinking water supply system; mine water pumping and processing services; water treatment; water solution services; and lease of powerplant and supporting activities. Further, the company is involved in forestry business; port; manufacture, repair, and maintenance of sea transportation; trading, handling, and barging of coal; sea transportation; and investment activities, as well as provision of terminal handling and mining support services. PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $760M in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$4.9B
Latest YoY
−7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−4.6%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34.2% (2021) → 21.2% (2025) · falling
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AADI
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+51% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.97× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.37× · Pricier than median
P/FCF12.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.0× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+10.1 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 4 years+6.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.6 %
FCF yield on price5.51 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models12.0 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE80· sector 15
FUTURE0· sector 0
PAST86· sector 22
HEALTH89· sector 93
DIVIDEND0· sector 51
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
CoalOil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,812 IDR versus a price of 12,450 IDR, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AADI?
Our model-based fair value for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 16,812 IDR (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12,450 IDR.
What is the quality score of AADI?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16,812 IDR (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12,274 IDR, optimistic scenario 21,854 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16,812 IDR, about +35% upside versus a price of 12,450 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12,274 IDR, optimistic scenario 21,854 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AADI?
The net profit margin of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is about 15.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for ten years (discount rate 12.0 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AADI use?
Our models discount Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk it is 16,812 IDR per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of 12,450 IDR. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, AADI trades below its calculated fair value: price 12,450 IDR, fair value 16,812 IDR, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AADI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (12,450 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16,812 IDR). For Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk the two are 4,362 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk at about 96.9T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is 12,450 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 16,812 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AADI?
Our models span a range for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 12,274 IDR, base 16,812 IDR, optimistic 21,854 IDR per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price 12,450 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AADI?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16,812 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 21.5%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AADI from its 52-week high?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk trades at 12,450 IDR, about 6% below its 52-week high of 11,800 IDR and 99% above the low of 6,241 IDR (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16,812 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price 12,450 IDR, calculated fair value 16,812 IDR (+35%), Quality Score 66/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AADI calculated?
We run Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16,812 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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