Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk IDR 16,530, price IDR 11,275, upside +46.6%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range 5,085 IDR – 12,450 IDR · fair‑value band 12,566 IDR – 22,782 IDR · the 11,275 IDR price screens below the 16,530 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations.
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PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations. In addition, it engages in construction, operation, and maintenance of drinking water supply system; mine water pumping and processing services; water treatment; water solution services; and lease of powerplant and supporting activities. Further, the company is involved in forestry business; port; manufacture, repair, and maintenance of sea transportation; trading, handling, and barging of coal; sea transportation; and investment activities, as well as provision of terminal handling and mining support services. PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) currently trades at 11,275 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,530 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 31.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 15,302 IDR per share, and 14 of the 20 models we run sit above the 11,275 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4,226 IDR, and 6 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 12,566 IDR (bear) to 22,782 IDR (bull), the price of 11,275 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $760M in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 87.8T IDR (≈ $8.8B) · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) 1,636 IDR · Net margin 15.5% · Return on equity 21.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.9% · Operating margin 19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 47%, AADI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12,566 IDRFair Value 16,530 IDRBull 22,782 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,196 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 21%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.2% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+47% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AADI
Frequently asked questions
Is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,530 IDR versus a price of 11,275 IDR, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AADI?
Our model-based fair value for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 16,530 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11,275 IDR.
What is the quality score of AADI?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16,530 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12,566 IDR, optimistic scenario 22,782 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16,530 IDR, about +47% upside versus a price of 11,275 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12,566 IDR, optimistic scenario 22,782 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AADI use?
Our models discount Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk that is +10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (+10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.09 %: that much free cash flow Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk it is 16,530 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 11,275 IDR. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AADI trades below its calculated fair value: price 11,275 IDR, fair value 16,530 IDR, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AADI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11,275 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16,530 IDR). For Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk the two are 5,255 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk at about 87.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 11,275 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 16,530 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AADI?
Our models span a range for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 12,566 IDR, base 16,530 IDR, optimistic 22,782 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 11,275 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AADI?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16,530 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.5%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AADI from its 52-week high?
Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk trades at 11,275 IDR, about 9% below its 52-week high of 12,450 IDR and 76% above the low of 6,411 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16,530 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 11,275 IDR, calculated fair value 16,530 IDR (+47%), Quality Score 66/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AADI calculated?
We run Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16,530 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 11,275 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 16,530 IDR, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (12,566 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (12,566 IDR to 22,782 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
The market capitalisation of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 87.8T IDR (≈ $8.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 1.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Earnings per share at Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk are 1,636 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
The net margin of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 15.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 25.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
The operating margin of Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Revenue at Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI)?
Earnings per share at Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk are growing −27.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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