Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd HK$0.13, price HK$0.14, upside -5.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1160 – HK$1.55 · fair‑value band HK$0.1200 – HK$0.1400 · the HK$0.1380 price screens above the HK$0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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JiaChen Holding Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of access flooring products in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Taiwan, and Singapore. The company operates through two segments, Steel Access Flooring Plates and Calcium-Sulfate Access Flooring Plates.
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JiaChen Holding Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of access flooring products in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Taiwan, and Singapore. The company operates through two segments, Steel Access Flooring Plates and Calcium-Sulfate Access Flooring Plates. It offers steel and calcium sulfate access flooring plates for use in office buildings, industrial office buildings, data centers, classrooms, libraries, etc.; and provides related installation services. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Changzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937) currently trades at HK$0.1380, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1300, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3500 per share, and 16 of the 21 models we run sit above the HK$0.1380 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 5 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1200 (bear) to HK$0.1400 (bull), the price of HK$0.1380 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Jiachen Holding Group Ltd reported revenue of 190M CNY in FY2025 versus 275M CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.8M CNY in FY2025, compounding −37.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$138M (≈ $17.6M) · P/S ratio 0.69 · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 4.8% · Revenue (TTM) 190M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −27.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −6%, 1937 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1200Fair Value HK$0.1300Bull HK$0.1400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−26.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−31.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−31.2% vs −15.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.1% a year for the price.
Compare Jiachen Holding Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−5.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiachen Holding Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1937
Frequently asked questions
Is Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1300 versus a price of HK$0.1380, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1937?
Our model-based fair value for Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is HK$0.1300 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1380.
What is the quality score of 1937?
Jiachen Holding Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1300 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1200, optimistic scenario HK$0.1400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiachen Holding Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1300, about −6% upside versus a price of HK$0.1380 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1200, optimistic scenario HK$0.1400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
Jiachen Holding Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 190M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiachen Holding Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -18.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1937 use?
Our models discount Jiachen Holding Group Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiachen Holding Group Ltd that is -18.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiachen Holding Group Ltd grew +0.8 % a year. The price currently implies -18.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (-18.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.47 %: that much free cash flow Jiachen Holding Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiachen Holding Group Ltd it is HK$0.1300 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1380. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiachen Holding Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1937 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1380, fair value HK$0.1300, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1937?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1380); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1300). For Jiachen Holding Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0080 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiachen Holding Group Ltd worth?
The market values Jiachen Holding Group Ltd at about HK$138M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1380; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1937?
Our models span a range for Jiachen Holding Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1200, base HK$0.1300, optimistic HK$0.1400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1380). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1937 from its 52-week high?
Jiachen Holding Group Ltd trades at HK$0.1380, about 52% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2900 and 14% above the low of HK$0.1210 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiachen Holding Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiachen Holding Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1380, calculated fair value HK$0.1300 (−6%), Quality Score 55/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1937 calculated?
We run Jiachen Holding Group Ltd through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiachen Holding Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1380. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1300, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiachen Holding Group Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
The market capitalisation of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is HK$138M (≈ $17.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is 0.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
The net margin of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
The operating margin of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
Revenue at Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is growing −27.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937)?
Earnings per share at Jiachen Holding Group Ltd are growing +66.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jiachen Holding Group Ltd (1937) carry?
The net debt of Jiachen Holding Group Ltd is 6.1M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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