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NIBE Industrier AB (NIBEB) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CH · Market cap CHF 6.0B

NI NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB · SW
PriceCHF 3.43
Fair ValueCHF 2.24
Upside-34.6%
Quality62/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.95% dividend yield
Moderate moat 57/100
Evidence: High Range CHF 1.32 – CHF 2.81 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from CHF 26.82 to CHF 2.24 (−91.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +15.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 2.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (CHF 1.32 to CHF 2.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

CHF 32.69 CHF 2.23 Fair Value CHF 2.24 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range CHF 2.23 – CHF 32.69 · fair‑value band CHF 1.32 – CHF 2.81 · the CHF 3.43 price screens above the CHF 2.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

NIBE Industrier AB (NIBEB) currently trades at CHF 3.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 2.24, implying the stock looks roughly 34.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Revenue grew 7.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at CHF 14.9B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 7.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from CHF 1.32 (bear case) to CHF 2.81 (bull case); at CHF 3.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -35%, NIBEB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF CHF 16.63 CHF 31.42 CHF 54.95 80
Residual Income CHF 13.73 CHF 14.49 CHF 15.66 76
Rev-Margin DCF CHF 15.74 CHF 30.72 CHF 49.83 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF CHF 16.79 CHF 32.96 CHF 59.63 38
Owner Earnings CHF 13.64 CHF 27.48 CHF 50.31 31
5Y Revenue Exit CHF 15.74 CHF 31.06 CHF 51.69 39
5Y EBITDA Exit CHF 22.86 CHF 45.58 CHF 73.98 41
5Y P/E Exit CHF 14.47 CHF 28.48 CHF 44.25 38
10Y Revenue Exit CHF 15.22 CHF 29.63 CHF 51.35 36
10Y EBITDA Exit CHF 20.49 CHF 39.97 CHF 69.39 37
10Y P/E Exit CHF 15.07 CHF 27.80 CHF 45.32 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd CHF 8.68 CHF 38.79 CHF 53.14 54
Lynch FV CHF 10.08 CHF 14.41 CHF 18.73 50
PEG = 1.0 CHF 10.08 CHF 14.41 CHF 18.73 46
EPV CHF 11.82 CHF 14.50 CHF 16.81 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM CHF 2.99 CHF 5.95 CHF 9.01 70
DDM Multi-Stage CHF 2.99 CHF 5.14 CHF 6.28 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple CHF 20.11 CHF 26.82 CHF 33.52 63
P/S Multiple CHF 16.28 CHF 21.71 CHF 27.14 58
P/B Multiple CHF 16.28 CHF 21.71 CHF 27.14 55
EV/EBIT CHF 23.90 CHF 33.57 CHF 43.25 53
EV/EBITDA CHF 28.80 CHF 40.11 CHF 51.41 54
EV/Revenue CHF 15.59 CHF 24.47 CHF 33.34 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) CHF 8.48 CHF 11.37 CHF 16.97 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF CHF 16.63 CHF 31.42 CHF 54.95 80
Rev-Margin DCF CHF 15.74 CHF 30.72 CHF 49.83 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income CHF 13.73 CHF 14.49 CHF 15.66 76
ROIC Compounder CHF 11.82 CHF 14.50 CHF 16.81 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E CHF 16.46 CHF 23.52 CHF 30.58 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (CHF 30.72) versus Dividend Discount (CHF 5.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue growth (YoY) +7.7%
Net margin 11.1%
Return on equity 16.3%
Free cash flow CHF 3.2B FY2025
P/E ratio 7.0
EPS (TTM) CHF 0.4360
More key figures
Dividend yield 3.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +50.2%
Net debt CHF 14.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

NIBE Industrier AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells various energy efficient solutions for indoor climate comfort, and components and solutions for intelligent heating and control in Nordic countries, rest of Europe, North America, Australia, Asia, and internationally.

Full company description

NIBE Industrier AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells various energy efficient solutions for indoor climate comfort, and components and solutions for intelligent heating and control in Nordic countries, rest of Europe, North America, Australia, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through three business areas: NIBE Climate Solutions, NIBE Element, and NIBE Stoves. The NIBE Climate Solutions business area offers indoor climate comfort products, such as heat pumps, ventilation products and air conditioning, climate control systems, water heaters and accumulator tanks, district heating products, solar panels, domestic boilers, commercial washing machines, and tumble dryers for homes, apartment blocks, and commercial properties. The NIBE Element business area provides various components and solutions for heating and control, which include tubular, aluminum, foil, thick film, PTC, high-power, and ceramic elements, as well as open spirals and tapes, heating cables and jackets, vacuum brazings, heat pump technology, resistors, heat exchangers, temperature sensors, flexible hoses, and control equipment to domestic and household appliances; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning; commercial products and professional kitchens; energy; transport; advanced technology; medicine; and aviation sectors, as well as industrial projects sectors. The NIBE Stoves business area provides free-standing, wood-burning, gas, and electric stoves; wood-burning inserts; heat-retaining products; and chimney systems, as well as accessories. NIBE Industrier AB (publ) was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Markaryd, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NIBE Industrier AB reported revenue of CHF 40.8B in FY2025 versus CHF 30.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 2.3B in FY2025, compounding −9.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
CHF 40.8B
Latest YoY
+0.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+0.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.5%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+12.6%
Revenue +7.3%/yr
FY21 CHF 30.8B
FY22 CHF 40.1B
FY23 CHF 46.6B
FY24 CHF 40.5B
FY25 CHF 40.8B
Net income −9.0%/yr
FY21 CHF 3.3B
FY22 CHF 4.4B
FY23 CHF 4.8B
FY24 CHF 1.2B
FY25 CHF 2.3B

NIBEB screens 35% overvalued. Compare with SPG Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NIBE Industrier AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NIBEB

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is NIBE Industrier AB (NIBEB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 2.24 versus a price of CHF 3.43, about −35% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NIBEB?
Our model-based fair value for NIBE Industrier AB is CHF 2.24 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is CHF 3.43.
What is the quality score of NIBEB?
NIBE Industrier AB has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the net profit margin of NIBEB?
The net profit margin of NIBE Industrier AB is about 11.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does NIBE Industrier AB pay a dividend?
NIBE Industrier AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.86% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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