China Minsheng Banking (1988) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Minsheng Banking HK$6.85, price HK$3.39, upside +102.1%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch China Minsheng Banking for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.67 – HK$5.20 · fair‑value band HK$5.13 – HK$8.56 · the HK$3.39 price screens below the HK$6.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow China Minsheng Banking in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether China Minsheng Banking is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments.
Show more
China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments. Its deposit products include saving accounts, deposit books and certificates, contracted and agreement deposits, call deposits, and corporate term and current deposits. The company also offers personal housing mortgage, individual automobile purchase, and household composite; corporate loans; medium and long term, and short-term working capital loans, as well as debit and credit cards. In addition, it provides appointed and domestic remittance, payment and collection agent, clearing, safe deposit box, VIP, and salary and welfare agent card services, as well as internet, mobile, telephone, and self-serve banking services. Further, the company offers gross settlement; wages distribution agency and letter of guarantee; cash management; trade finance; industrial chain finance; international credit; and comprehensive credit granting and financial product investment services. It operates through branch-level institutions, business outlets, general sub-branches, community sub-branches, and small business sub-branches. The company serves individuals, corporate customers, government agencies, and financial institutions, as well as micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises. China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Minsheng Banking (1988) currently trades at HK$3.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.85, implying the stock looks roughly 50.5% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$12.73 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$3.39 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$7.55, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$5.13 (bear) to HK$8.56 (bull), the price of HK$3.39 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Minsheng Banking reported revenue of 266B CNY in FY2025 versus 321B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 30.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$164B (≈ $21.0B) · P/E ratio 4.7 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.6000 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 11.5% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 102%, 1988 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$5.13Fair Value HK$6.85Bull HK$8.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3030 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.4% vs −5.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 12%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+100.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)35.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)54.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is China Minsheng Banking (1988) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$6.85 versus a price of HK$3.39, about +102% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1988?
Our model-based fair value for China Minsheng Banking is HK$6.85 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.39.
What is the quality score of 1988?
China Minsheng Banking has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$6.85 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.13, optimistic scenario HK$8.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Minsheng Banking stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$6.85, about +102% upside versus a price of HK$3.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.13, optimistic scenario HK$8.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does China Minsheng Banking pay a dividend?
China Minsheng Banking currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Minsheng Banking it is HK$6.85 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.39. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Minsheng Banking stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1988 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.39, fair value HK$6.85, a gap of about +102% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1988?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$6.85). For China Minsheng Banking the two are HK$3.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Minsheng Banking worth?
The market values China Minsheng Banking at about HK$164B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.39; our models calculate a fair value of HK$6.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1988?
Our models span a range for China Minsheng Banking: cautious scenario HK$5.13, base HK$6.85, optimistic HK$8.56 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$3.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1988?
China Minsheng Banking trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$6.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 8.0, P/B 0.2, P/S 1.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 1988?
The PEG ratio of China Minsheng Banking is 7.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Minsheng Banking (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1988 from its 52-week high?
China Minsheng Banking trades at HK$3.39, about 22% below its 52-week high of HK$4.35 and 8% above the low of HK$3.14 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$6.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Minsheng Banking?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Minsheng Banking stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$3.39, calculated fair value HK$6.85 (+102%), Quality Score 36/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1988 calculated?
We run China Minsheng Banking through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$6.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Minsheng Banking currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$3.39. Our model-based fair value is HK$6.85, about +102% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Minsheng Banking right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Minsheng Banking (1988) come from?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking grew −4.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.4 %, EBIT margin −7.1 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Minsheng Banking
How large is the market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
The market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking is HK$164B (≈ $21.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Minsheng Banking is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking are HK$0.6000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
The dividend yield of China Minsheng Banking is 5.9% (payout 33.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
The net margin of China Minsheng Banking is 11.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Minsheng Banking is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Minsheng Banking is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
The operating margin of China Minsheng Banking is 54.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
Revenue at China Minsheng Banking is growing −7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking are growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Minsheng Banking (1988) generate?
The free cash flow of China Minsheng Banking is −167B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Minsheng Banking (1988) carry?
The net debt of China Minsheng Banking is 436B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch China Minsheng Banking in the live analysis
One click puts China Minsheng Banking on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
