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China Minsheng Banking (1988) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$141B

CM China Minsheng Banking 1988 · HK
PriceHK$3.39
Fair ValueHK$6.82
Upside+101.2%
Quality36/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 35.1% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
6.02% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range HK$5.12 – HK$8.53 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.42 to HK$6.82 (+6.2%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 101% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.12). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.20 HK$1.67 Fair Value HK$6.82 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.67 – HK$5.20 · fair‑value band HK$5.12 – HK$8.53 · the HK$3.39 price screens below the HK$6.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Minsheng Banking (1988) currently trades at HK$3.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.82, implying the stock looks roughly 101.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Minsheng Banking generated revenue of HK$83.7B at a net margin of 35.1%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. Net debt stands at HK$436B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.12 (bear case) to HK$8.53 (bull case); at HK$3.39, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 101%, 1988 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$10.80 HK$10.90 HK$10.20 76
Gordon GGM HK$3.69 HK$7.66 HK$12.16 70
P/E Multiple HK$6.14 HK$8.19 HK$10.24 63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.69 HK$7.66 HK$12.16 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.69 HK$6.46 HK$8.04 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.14 HK$8.19 HK$10.24 63
P/B Multiple HK$8.03 HK$10.71 HK$13.39 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.11 HK$9.52 HK$14.22 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$10.80 HK$10.90 HK$10.20 76

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$10.90) versus Dividend Discount (HK$6.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$83.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) -7.8%
Net margin 35.1%
Return on equity 4.3%
Free cash flow −HK$167B FY2025
P/E ratio 4.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 54.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.6000
Dividend yield 6.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -10.3%
Net debt HK$436B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 44
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments.

Full company description

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments. Its deposit products include saving accounts, deposit books and certificates, contracted and agreement deposits, call deposits, and corporate term and current deposits. The company also offers personal housing mortgage, individual automobile purchase, and household composite; corporate loans; medium and long term, and short-term working capital loans, as well as debit and credit cards. In addition, it provides appointed and domestic remittance, payment and collection agent, clearing, safe deposit box, VIP, and salary and welfare agent card services, as well as internet, mobile, telephone, and self-serve banking services. Further, the company offers gross settlement; wages distribution agency and letter of guarantee; cash management; trade finance; industrial chain finance; international credit; and comprehensive credit granting and financial product investment services. It operates through branch-level institutions, business outlets, general sub-branches, community sub-branches, and small business sub-branches. The company serves individuals, corporate customers, government agencies, and financial institutions, as well as micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises. China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Minsheng Banking reported revenue of HK$266B in FY2025 versus HK$321B in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$30.6B in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 19/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$266B
Latest YoY
−8.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.0%
Revenue −4.6%/yr
FY21 HK$321B
FY22 HK$298B
FY23 HK$306B
FY24 HK$289B
FY25 HK$266B
Net income −2.9%/yr
FY21 HK$34.4B
FY22 HK$35.3B
FY23 HK$35.8B
FY24 HK$32.3B
FY25 HK$30.6B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −4.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.4 pp

of which total revenue +1.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.8 pp

EBIT margin −7.1 pp
Tax rate +2.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Minsheng Banking Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1988

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1088 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +101% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 35% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 54% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.19× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.21× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.69× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 7.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 44
PAST 17 · sector 41
HEALTH 90 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 56

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,350 IDR 4,637 IDR -27%
KB Financial Group 105560 168,100 KRW 220,258 KRW +31%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 3,110 IDR 3,792 IDR +22%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,130 IDR 6,067 IDR +47%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 8,400 ARS +64%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 103,800 KRW 146,032 KRW +41%
Hana Financial Group 086790 127,900 KRW 210,506 KRW +65%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,500 VND 45,959 VND -23%
Woori Financial Group 316140 33,000 KRW 60,758 KRW +84%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Minsheng Banking (1988) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$6.82 versus a price of HK$3.39, about +101% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1988?
Our model-based fair value for China Minsheng Banking is HK$6.82 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$3.39.
What is the quality score of 1988?
China Minsheng Banking has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Minsheng Banking (1988)?
China Minsheng Banking reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$83.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1988?
The net profit margin of China Minsheng Banking is about 35.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 35.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Minsheng Banking pay a dividend?
China Minsheng Banking currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.02% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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