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BASF SE (1BAS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BASF SE €19.76, price €50.06, upside -60.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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BS
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
BASF SE
1BAS · MIStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value €19.76 · Strongly overvalued (−60.5%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −11.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!4.5% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Narrow moat 27/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €30.58 – €54.14 · fair‑value band €13.83 – €25.69 · the €50.06 price screens above the €19.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
BASF SE operates as a chemical company worldwide. It operates through six segments: Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, Surface Technologies, Nutrition & Care, and Agricultural Solutions. The Chemicals segment provides petrochemicals and intermediates.
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BASF SE operates as a chemical company worldwide. It operates through six segments: Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, Surface Technologies, Nutrition & Care, and Agricultural Solutions. The Chemicals segment provides petrochemicals and intermediates. The Materials segment offers advanced materials and their precursors for applications and systems comprising isocyanates, polyamides, and inorganic basic products, as well as specialties for the plastics and plastics processing industries. The Industrial Solutions segment develops and markets ingredients and additives for industrial applications, such as polymer dispersions, resins, additives, chemical and refining catalysts, electronic materials, and antioxidants for automotive, petrochemical and petroleum processing, plastics and electronics, construction, electronics, paper coatings, and energy and resources industries. The Surface Technologies segment provides catalysts, battery materials, automotive OEM and refinish coatings, surface treatment, and precious and base metal services for the automotive and chemical industries. The Nutrition & Care segment offers ingredients for consumer applications in the areas of nutrition, home, and personal care applications; and serves the food and feed producers, pharmaceutical, cosmetics, detergents, and cleaner industries, as well as the consumer goods sector. The Agricultural Solutions segment provides seeds and traits, and seed treatment products; fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and biological crop protection products; and digital solutions. The company engages in engineering and other; rental and leasing; and renewable energy trading, commodity trading activities. BASF SE was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Ludwigshafen am Rhein, Germany.
Stock analysis
BASF SE (1BAS) currently trades at €50.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.76, 60.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €25.63 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €50.06 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €10.50, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €13.83 (bear) to €25.69 (bull), the price of €50.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
BASF SE reported revenue of €59.7B in FY2025 versus €78.6B in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was €1.6B in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €44.7B · P/E ratio 28.8 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) €1.74 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −61%, 1BAS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €13.83
Fair Value €19.76
Bull €25.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
€29.11
€29.86
€31.50
73
FCF DCF
€5.40
€14.54
€31.47
70
EPV
€6.45
€10.50
€14.05
70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€5.40
€14.54
€31.47
70
Owner Earnings
€7.32
€17.22
€35.55
68
5Y Revenue Exit
€7.67
€20.42
€38.97
65
5Y EBITDA Exit
€9.89
€24.26
€43.30
68
5Y P/E Exit
€1.19
€9.21
€18.82
61
10Y Revenue Exit
€5.82
€15.25
€25.45
61
10Y EBITDA Exit
€7.94
€17.63
€28.00
63
10Y P/E Exit
€2.66
€8.32
€13.62
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€12.45
€15.22
€17.12
65
EPV
€6.45
€10.50
€14.05
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€21.66
€23.71
€26.83
67
DDM Multi-Stage
€21.66
€27.17
€34.90
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€19.22
€25.63
€32.04
63
P/S Multiple
€23.34
€31.12
€38.90
58
P/B Multiple
€23.34
€31.12
€38.90
55
EV/EBIT
€6.37
€14.45
€22.54
62
EV/EBITDA
€17.87
€29.78
€41.70
65
EV/Revenue
€11.54
€24.16
€36.77
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€18.77
€25.15
€37.54
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€6.48
€15.35
€30.53
70
Rev-Margin DCF
€7.67
€20.96
€37.16
66
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€29.11
€29.86
€31.50
73
ROIC Compounder
€6.45
€10.50
€14.05
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€13.83
€19.76
€25.69
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
53/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability
34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
62
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 113% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.0% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.6%
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Purging Compound Market Forecasts Growth from 26.78 Kilotons (2026) to 35.43 Kilotons by 2031, Profiling BASF, Dow, Clariant, 3M & Chem-
- BASF €10.3bn bid rejected by chemical rival Evonik, FT reports
- Microporous Materials Market - Global Strategic Business Report: Secure your share of a $1.3B revenue expansion to $7.2B by 2030. BASF, Hone
Compare BASF SE with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 339 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Italy market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 | 45.82 SAR | 24.66 SAR | −46% |
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥22.33 | ¥40.44 | +81% |
| Dow Inc DOW | $27.59 | $20.98 | −24% |
| Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 | ¥16.15 | ¥43.28 | +168% |
| Zangge Mining Company 000408 | ¥71.46 | ¥78.61 | +10% |
| LG Chem, Ltd 051910 | 252,500 KRW | 587,755 KRW | +133% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥33.97 | ¥19.25 | −43% |
| Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 | ¥43.43 | ¥15.72 | −64% |
| Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co 000301 | ¥13.36 | ¥3.06 | −77% |
| Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 | 67.00 TWD | 17.68 TWD | −74% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is BASF SE (1BAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €19.76 versus a price of €50.06, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1BAS?
Our model-based fair value for BASF SE is €19.76 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €50.06.
What is the quality score of 1BAS?
BASF SE has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BASF SE (1BAS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €19.76 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €13.83, optimistic scenario €25.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BASF SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €19.76, about −61% upside versus a price of €50.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €13.83, optimistic scenario €25.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BASF SE (1BAS)?
BASF SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €59.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does BASF SE pay a dividend?
BASF SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into BASF SE (1BAS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BASF SE would have to grow free cash flow by +28.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -6.7 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1BAS use?
Our models discount BASF SE at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BASF SE that is +28.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BASF SE (1BAS) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at BASF SE grew -6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +28.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BASF SE (1BAS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BASF SE (+28.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.01 %: that much free cash flow BASF SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BASF SE (1BAS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BASF SE it is €19.76 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €50.06. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BASF SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 1BAS trades above its calculated fair value: price €50.06, fair value €19.76, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1BAS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€50.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€19.76). For BASF SE the two are €30.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BASF SE worth?
The market values BASF SE at about €44.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €50.06; our models calculate a fair value of €19.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1BAS?
Our models span a range for BASF SE: cautious scenario €13.83, base €19.76, optimistic €25.69 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €50.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1BAS?
BASF SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €19.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 1BAS?
The PEG ratio of BASF SE is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BASF SE (1BAS)?
Balance-sheet figures for BASF SE (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1BAS from its 52-week high?
BASF SE trades at €50.06, about 8% below its 52-week high of €54.14 and 25% above the low of €39.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €19.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BASF SE?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BASF SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €50.06, calculated fair value €19.76 (−61%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1BAS calculated?
We run BASF SE through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €19.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BASF SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €50.06. Our model-based fair value is €19.76, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BASF SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€25.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€13.83 to €25.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BASF SE
How large is the market capitalisation of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The market capitalisation of BASF SE is €44.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BASF SE is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BASF SE (1BAS)?
Earnings per share at BASF SE are €1.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The dividend yield of BASF SE is 4.5% (payout 129%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The net margin of BASF SE is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BASF SE is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BASF SE (1BAS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BASF SE is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BASF SE (1BAS)?
The operating margin of BASF SE is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BASF SE (1BAS)?
Revenue at BASF SE is growing −3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BASF SE (1BAS)?
Earnings per share at BASF SE are growing +16.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BASF SE (1BAS) carry?
The net debt of BASF SE is €19.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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