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PayPal Holdings (1PYPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PayPal Holdings €87.19, price €46.88, upside +86.0%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
PayPal Holdings
1PYPL · MIClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value €87.19 · Strongly undervalued (+86.0%)
✓Quality 73/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +6.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.9% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 67/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €32.54 – €259.74 · fair‑value band €57.20 – €125.51 · the €46.88 price screens below the €87.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide.
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PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
PayPal Holdings (1PYPL) currently trades at €46.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €87.19, implying the stock looks roughly 46.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €122.61 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the €46.88 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €13.67, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €57.20 (bear) to €125.51 (bull), the price of €46.88 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PayPal Holdings reported revenue of $33.2B in FY2025 versus $27.5B in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $5.2B in FY2025, compounding +29.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €43.1B · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 1.58 · EPS (TTM) €4.68 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 15.8% · Return on equity 25.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 86%, 1PYPL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €57.20
Fair Value €87.19
Bull €125.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.22 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€63.63
€96.55
€145.20
76
Growth DCF
€65.14
€94.95
€136.69
75
Owner Earnings
€61.19
€92.89
€139.73
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€63.63
€96.55
€145.20
76
Owner Earnings
€61.19
€92.89
€139.73
73
5Y Revenue Exit
€57.09
€89.05
€128.94
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
€78.29
€127.77
€184.33
71
5Y P/E Exit
€84.34
€138.81
€194.67
67
10Y Revenue Exit
€57.15
€86.54
€124.22
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
€72.28
€113.09
€165.57
65
10Y P/E Exit
€76.09
€120.66
€173.29
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€35.83
€98.42
€129.15
62
Lynch FV
€19.55
€27.93
€36.31
58
PEG = 1.0
€19.55
€27.93
€36.31
55
EPV
€46.51
€54.59
€61.65
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€1.20
€2.50
€3.96
63
DDM Multi-Stage
€1.20
€1.89
€2.61
63
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€110.66
€147.55
€184.44
63
P/S Multiple
€67.19
€89.59
€111.98
58
P/B Multiple
€67.19
€89.59
€111.98
55
EV/EBIT
€113.98
€152.63
€191.28
66
EV/EBITDA
€98.09
€131.44
€164.79
67
EV/Revenue
€56.66
€81.78
€106.90
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€10.20
€13.67
€20.40
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€65.14
€94.95
€136.69
75
Rev-Margin DCF
€57.09
€89.50
€125.64
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€30.83
€38.24
€61.51
71
ROIC Compounder
€49.30
€61.75
€75.62
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€85.83
€122.61
€159.40
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
73/100
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Profitability
53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
28
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 19%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $359.33 | $221.29 | −38% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $551.47 | $359.54 | −35% |
| American Express Company AXP | $304.10 | $208.54 | −31% |
| Capital One Financial Corporation COF | $193.07 | $125.94 | −35% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹948.30 | ₹1,100 | +16% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹994.10 | ₹1,364 | +37% |
| Affirm Holdings AFRM | $67.21 | $73.93 | +10% |
| Synchrony Financial, SYF | $71.52 | $141.92 | +98% |
| SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI | $15.72 | $5.53 | −65% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹339.15 | ₹149.40 | −56% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is PayPal Holdings (1PYPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €87.19 versus a price of €46.88, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1PYPL?
Our model-based fair value for PayPal Holdings is €87.19 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €46.88.
What is the quality score of 1PYPL?
PayPal Holdings has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €87.19 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €57.20, optimistic scenario €125.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PayPal Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €87.19, about +86% upside versus a price of €46.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €57.20, optimistic scenario €125.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
PayPal Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does PayPal Holdings pay a dividend?
PayPal Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PayPal Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1PYPL use?
Our models discount PayPal Holdings at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PayPal Holdings that is +0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PayPal Holdings (1PYPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at PayPal Holdings grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies +0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PayPal Holdings (+0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.46 %: that much free cash flow PayPal Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PayPal Holdings it is €87.19 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €46.88. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PayPal Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 1PYPL trades below its calculated fair value: price €46.88, fair value €87.19, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1PYPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€46.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€87.19). For PayPal Holdings the two are €40.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PayPal Holdings worth?
The market values PayPal Holdings at about €43.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €46.88; our models calculate a fair value of €87.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1PYPL?
Our models span a range for PayPal Holdings: cautious scenario €57.20, base €87.19, optimistic €125.51 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €46.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1PYPL from its 52-week high?
PayPal Holdings trades at €46.88, about 28% below its 52-week high of €65.20 and 44% above the low of €32.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €87.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PayPal Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PayPal Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €46.88, calculated fair value €87.19 (+86%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1PYPL calculated?
We run PayPal Holdings through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €87.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. PayPal Holdings currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €46.88. Our model-based fair value is €87.19, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PayPal Holdings right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (73/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€57.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (€57.20 to €125.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of PayPal Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The market capitalisation of PayPal Holdings is €43.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of PayPal Holdings is 10.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PayPal Holdings is 1.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
Earnings per share at PayPal Holdings are €4.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The dividend yield of PayPal Holdings is 0.9% (payout 9.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The net margin of PayPal Holdings is 15.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PayPal Holdings is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PayPal Holdings is 6.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
The operating margin of PayPal Holdings is 18.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
Revenue at PayPal Holdings is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PayPal Holdings (1PYPL)?
Earnings per share at PayPal Holdings are growing −6.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PayPal Holdings (1PYPL) carry?
The net debt of PayPal Holdings is $1.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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