Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Affirm Holdings Inc stock $72.55, price $67.84, upside +6.9%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.91 – $168.52 · fair‑value band $47.06 – $165.49 · the $67.84 price screens below the $72.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates payment network in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app.
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The company's commerce platform, agreements with originating banks, and capital markets partners enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time.
It has active merchants covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies with an omni-channel presence.
The company's merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, home and lifestyle, travel and ticketing, electronics, fashion and beauty, equipment and auto, and general merchandise.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) currently trades at $67.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $72.55, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $295.98 per share, and 10 of the 21 models we run sit above the $67.84 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.07, and 11 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $47.06 (bear) to $165.49 (bull), the price of $67.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Affirm Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2026 versus $1.3B in FY2022, a compound +30.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $23.7B Large · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 5.17 · EPS (TTM) $5.77 · Net margin 43.9% · Return on equity 44.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 7%, AFRM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$47.06Fair Value $72.55Bull$165.49
Price $67.84 · Upside +6.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleKatherine AdkinsChief Legal Officer83,328 shares at $73.04$6.1MSep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael LinfordChief Operating Officer2× since Jun 26, 2026: 179,219 shares, avg. $84.45$15.1MAug 28, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNoel Bertram WatsonDirector3× since Apr 14, 2026: 6,000 shares, avg. $65.95$395,720Aug 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMax R LevchinChief Executive Officer, Director, 10% owner666,666 shares at $80.62$53.7MJan 5, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.1%
’19
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−44.1% (2021) → 22.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.9% a year for the price and +20.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Sticky usage from repeat customers and new merchant reach form the main strength, while low profitability and thin evidence of a durable moat remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Providers such as Klarna offering lower merchant fees or pay-in-4 models could draw merchants and customers away from Affirm or pressure its higher take rates on larger-ticket financing.
Bull case: By deepening integrations with AI commerce platforms and securing exclusive merchant deals, Affirm could expand its reach and maintain pricing power despite rival offerings.
Bear case: If lower-fee rivals gain share and regulators impose stricter rules, Affirm might face squeezed margins and constrained growth in its core pay-over-time products.
Affirm is rolling out its pay-over-time option through Antom's US merchant network this month, adding flexible plans with no late fees to more checkout experiences. Its model shows 96 percent of transactions coming from repeat customers, a sign of sticky usage. Will this loyalty and fresh merchant reach outweigh pressure from 0 percent APR volumes on margins, or will card adoption cap the advantage?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 328 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+6.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)44.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)43.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.82× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $72.55 versus a price of $67.84, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AFRM?
Our model-based fair value for Affirm Holdings Inc is $72.55 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $67.84.
What is the quality score of AFRM?
Affirm Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $72.55 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.06, optimistic scenario $165.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Affirm Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $72.55, about +7% upside versus a price of $67.84 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $47.06, optimistic scenario $165.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
Affirm Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Affirm Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +22.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.3 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFRM use?
Our models discount Affirm Holdings Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 3.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Affirm Holdings Inc that is +22.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Affirm Holdings Inc grew +35.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +22.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Affirm Holdings Inc (+22.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.18 %: that much free cash flow Affirm Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Affirm Holdings Inc it is $72.55 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of $67.84. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Affirm Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, AFRM trades below its calculated fair value: price $67.84, fair value $72.55, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($67.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($72.55). For Affirm Holdings Inc the two are $4.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Affirm Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Affirm Holdings Inc at about $23.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is $67.84; our models calculate a fair value of $72.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFRM?
Our models span a range for Affirm Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $47.06, base $72.55, optimistic $165.49 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price $67.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFRM?
Affirm Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $72.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.3, P/B 4.3, P/S 5.2, EV/EBITDA 35.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AFRM?
The PEG ratio of Affirm Holdings Inc is 7.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Affirm Holdings Inc (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 44.5%, debt of 1.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFRM from its 52-week high?
Affirm Holdings Inc trades at $67.84, about 21% below its 52-week high of $85.78 and 60% above the low of $42.53 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $72.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Affirm Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Affirm Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price $67.84, calculated fair value $72.55 (+7%), Quality Score 54/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFRM calculated?
We run Affirm Holdings Inc through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $72.55 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Affirm Holdings Inc currently trades 6% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $67.84. Our model-based fair value is $72.55, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Affirm Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($47.06 to $165.49). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Affirm Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
The market capitalisation of Affirm Holdings Inc is $23.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Affirm Holdings Inc is 5.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
Earnings per share at Affirm Holdings Inc are $5.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
The net margin of Affirm Holdings Inc is 43.9% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2026 13.6%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Affirm Holdings Inc is 44.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Affirm Holdings Inc is −5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
The operating margin of Affirm Holdings Inc is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
Revenue at Affirm Holdings Inc is growing +35.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
Earnings per share at Affirm Holdings Inc are growing +101% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) carry?
The net debt of Affirm Holdings Inc is $7.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026