Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $27.4B
Affirm Holdings
AFRM · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −7.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 93% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.91 – $168.52 · fair‑value band $3.79 – $5.22 · the $78.32 price screens above the $5.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) currently trades at $78.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.22, implying the stock looks roughly 93.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Affirm Holdings generated revenue of $4.0B at a net margin of 9.6%. Revenue grew 32.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.5%. Net debt stands at $6.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.79 (bear case) to $5.22 (bull case); at $78.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -93%, AFRM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($16.59) versus Dividend Discount ($0.8600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates payment network in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app.
Full company description
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates payment network in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. The company's commerce platform, agreements with originating banks, and capital markets partners enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time. It has active merchants covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies with an omni-channel presence. The company's merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, home and lifestyle, travel and ticketing, electronics, fashion and beauty, equipment and auto, and general merchandise. Affirm Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Affirm Holdings reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $870M in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was $52.2M in FY2025.
AFRM screens 93% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Peer Group
Credit Services · 334 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $359.42 | $198.27 | -45% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $561.44 | $221.87 | -60% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,094 | ₹397.61 | -64% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,117 | ₹553.83 | -50% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,918 | ₹796.52 | -58% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹367.05 | ₹149.40 | -59% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹376.50 | ₹615.85 | +64% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹2,876 | ₹3,429 | +19% |
| Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC | ₹88.35 | ₹69.72 | -21% |
| REC Limited RECLTD | ₹346.00 | ₹692.00 | +100% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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