Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd HK$1.13, price HK$3.10, upside -63.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.27 – HK$5.23 · fair‑value band HK$0.8500 – HK$2.64 · the HK$3.10 price screens above the HK$1.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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ShenZhen Properties & Resources Development (Group) Ltd. develops real estate properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Real Estate Business; Property Management; and Asset operation segments.
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ShenZhen Properties & Resources Development (Group) Ltd. develops real estate properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Real Estate Business; Property Management; and Asset operation segments. The company is involved in the development and sale of commercial and residential housing; leasing of real estate properties; development of residential, high-end apartments, office buildings, industrial parks, and has brand projects; management and construction of buildings; equipment maintenance for buildings, landscaping and gardening, and cleaning services; engineering supervision; and retail of Chinese cuisine, Western cuisine, and alcoholic beverages. It also offers Software and information technology services; Catering services; and Engineering supervision services; domestic trading and materials supply; and marketing, catering, project supervision, and other services. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development (Group) Ltd. is a subsidiary of Shenzhen Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011) currently trades at HK$3.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.13, 63.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$4.46 per share, and 4 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$3.10 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.76, and 3 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.8500 (bear) to HK$2.64 (bull), the price of HK$3.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd reported revenue of 2.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −14.7%/yr. Reported net income was 33.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −57.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.8B (≈ $235M) · P/S ratio 0.63 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity −0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin 1.3% · Revenue (TTM) 2.4B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −64%, 200011 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.8500Fair Value HK$1.13Bull HK$2.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−26.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 10%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.0%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 570 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−69.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.07× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.10× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)64· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)38· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 59
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200011
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.13 versus a price of HK$3.10, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 200011?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is HK$1.13 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.10.
What is the quality score of 200011?
Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.13 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8500, optimistic scenario HK$2.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.13, about −64% upside versus a price of HK$3.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8500, optimistic scenario HK$2.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.65% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd it is HK$1.13 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$3.10. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 200011 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.10, fair value HK$1.13, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200011?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.13). For Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd the two are HK$1.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd worth?
The market values Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd at about HK$1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.10; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200011?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.8500, base HK$1.13, optimistic HK$2.64 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$3.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −0.9%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200011 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd trades at HK$3.10, about 15% below its 52-week high of HK$3.64 and 37% above the low of HK$2.27 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$3.10, calculated fair value HK$1.13 (−64%), Quality Score 41/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200011 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.10. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.13, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.8500 to HK$2.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is HK$1.8B (≈ $235M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is growing +12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is −2.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd (200011) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development Group Ltd is 2.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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