Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd HK$1.91, price HK$1.58, upside +20.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.33 – HK$2.05 · fair‑value band HK$1.27 – HK$2.57 · the HK$1.58 price screens below the HK$1.91 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd engages in the operation and management of electronic markets, property management and urban services, new energy, inspection and testing, and real estate development businesses in China.
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Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd engages in the operation and management of electronic markets, property management and urban services, new energy, inspection and testing, and real estate development businesses in China. It is also involved in cadmium telluride photovoltaic glass manufacturing; power station installation; construction, operation, and distribution of photovoltaics, and energy storage; building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) solutions; intelligent photovoltaic-storage-charging systems; integrated energy management for low-carbon industrial parks; and photovoltaic power station project construction and distribution, as well as photovoltaic power plant operation and maintenance. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Shenzhen, China. Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Shenzhen Electronics Group Co.,Ltd.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058) currently trades at HK$1.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.91, implying the stock looks roughly 17.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$2.25 per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$1.58 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$1.17, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.27 (bear) to HK$2.57 (bull), the price of HK$1.58 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 67.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.9B (≈ $248M) · P/E ratio 23.4 · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 21%, 200058 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.27Fair Value HK$1.91Bull HK$2.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0348 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.9% vs −4.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 11%
2025 sits 69% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 530 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−76.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets2.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)16.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200058
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.91 versus a price of HK$1.58, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200058?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is HK$1.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.58.
What is the quality score of 200058?
Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.27, optimistic scenario HK$2.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.91, about +21% upside versus a price of HK$1.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.27, optimistic scenario HK$2.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 200058 use?
Our models discount Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd that is +11.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +11.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (+11.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.61 %: that much free cash flow Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd it is HK$1.91 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$1.58. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 200058 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.58, fair value HK$1.91, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200058?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.91). For Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd the two are HK$0.3300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd at about HK$1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.58; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200058?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.27, base HK$1.91, optimistic HK$2.57 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$1.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 200058?
Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.4 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200058 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd trades at HK$1.58, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$1.99 and 10% above the low of HK$1.44 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$1.58, calculated fair value HK$1.91 (+21%), Quality Score 53/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200058 calculated?
We run Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.58. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.91, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd right now?
Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.27 to HK$2.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058) come from?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd grew −4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin −9.8 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is HK$1.9B (≈ $248M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is 0.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd are HK$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is 1.5% (payout 34.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The net margin of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
Revenue at Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd are growing +2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd (200058) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen SEG Co Ltd is 223M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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