Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings (200488) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap HK$1.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from HK$0.9700 to HK$0.9941 (+2.5%) since Jun 24, 2026.
Below-average quality, screening 71% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8033). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4600 – HK$6.29 · fair‑value band HK$0.8033 – HK$1.18 · the HK$0.5800 price screens below the HK$0.9941 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings (200488) currently trades at HK$0.5800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.9941, implying the stock looks roughly 71.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings generated revenue of HK$8.4B at a net margin of -87.9%. Revenue grew 274.0% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$26.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8033 (bear case) to HK$1.18 (bull case); at HK$0.5800, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 71%, 200488 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$3.19) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.2100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited engages in the pulp production and paper making in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Machine Paper, Financial Services, Hotels and Property Rentals, and Other.
Full company description
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited engages in the pulp production and paper making in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Machine Paper, Financial Services, Hotels and Property Rentals, and Other. The company offers culture paper, copperplate paper, coated paper, white cardboard, copy paper, industrial paper, special paper, life paper, newspaper, and thermal and glassine paper, as well as household paper comprising toilet papers, facial tissues, pocket tissues, napkins, and paper towels; and paper making raw materials, machinery, and chemicals. It also generates and sells electric and thermal power; engages in the forestry, saplings growing, and processing and sale of timber and construction materials; manufactures, processes, and sells wood products; purchases and sells waste; and provides wall materials, logistics, panels, and coal, as well as financial leasing, and equipment financial and operating leasing services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of catering, hotel, marketing, capital market, funding, arboriculture, logistics, transportation, printing and packaging, machinery manufacturing, trading, property investment and management, commerce, business factoring, investment management, wholesale and retail, investment, finance, port, cargo transportation, and business services activities. Further, it engages in the electricity, tea, property, and real estate business. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shouguang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings reported revenue of HK$6.2B in FY2025 versus HK$33.0B in FY2021, a compound −34.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$8.3B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.09 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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