Lu Thai Textile (200726) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Lu Thai Textile is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.87 – HK$5.20 · fair‑value band HK$9.69 – HK$17.67 · the HK$4.43 price screens below the HK$13.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Lu Thai Textile Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells yarn-dyed fabrics as well as shirts and garments in Mainland China, Japan, South Korea, rest of Southeast Asia, Europe, the United States, and internationally.
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Lu Thai Textile Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells yarn-dyed fabrics as well as shirts and garments in Mainland China, Japan, South Korea, rest of Southeast Asia, Europe, the United States, and internationally. It provides combed cotton blended yarns; yarns and fabrics of cotton, fiber, silk, wool, chemical fiber, and other materials; shirts; and dyeing fabrics, such as non-iron, white, multi-component, digital printing, stretch, and pant fabrics. The company was founded in 1987 and is based in Zibo, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Lu Thai Textile (200726) currently trades at HK$4.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.24, implying the stock looks roughly 66.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$15.63 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$4.43 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$4.22, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$9.69 (bear) to HK$17.67 (bull), the price of HK$4.43 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Lu Thai Textile reported revenue of 5.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was 594M CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.6B (≈ $462M) · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.6900 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 199%, 200726 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.69Fair Value HK$13.24Bull HK$17.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3158 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+37.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 11%
2025 sits 55% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 340 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lu Thai Textile (200726) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.24 versus a price of HK$4.43, about +199% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200726?
Our model-based fair value for Lu Thai Textile is HK$13.24 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.43.
What is the quality score of 200726?
Lu Thai Textile has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$13.24 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.69, optimistic scenario HK$17.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lu Thai Textile stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$13.24, about +199% upside versus a price of HK$4.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.69, optimistic scenario HK$17.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
Lu Thai Textile reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Lu Thai Textile pay a dividend?
Lu Thai Textile currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lu Thai Textile would have to grow free cash flow by -22.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 200726 use?
Our models discount Lu Thai Textile at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lu Thai Textile that is -22.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lu Thai Textile (200726) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lu Thai Textile grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies -22.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lu Thai Textile (200726) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lu Thai Textile (-22.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.86 %: that much free cash flow Lu Thai Textile produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lu Thai Textile it is HK$13.24 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$4.43. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lu Thai Textile stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 200726 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.43, fair value HK$13.24, a gap of about +199% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200726?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$13.24). For Lu Thai Textile the two are HK$8.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lu Thai Textile worth?
The market values Lu Thai Textile at about HK$3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.43; our models calculate a fair value of HK$13.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200726?
Our models span a range for Lu Thai Textile: cautious scenario HK$9.69, base HK$13.24, optimistic HK$17.67 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$4.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 200726?
Lu Thai Textile trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$13.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 1.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lu Thai Textile (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200726 from its 52-week high?
Lu Thai Textile trades at HK$4.43, about 15% below its 52-week high of HK$5.20 and 10% above the low of HK$4.01 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$13.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lu Thai Textile?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Shenzhou International Group, Tongkun Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, Far Eastern New Century Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lu Thai Textile stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$4.43, calculated fair value HK$13.24 (+199%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200726 calculated?
We run Lu Thai Textile through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$13.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Lu Thai Textile currently trades 199 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$4.43. Our model-based fair value is HK$13.24, about +199% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lu Thai Textile right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$9.69 to HK$17.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lu Thai Textile (200726) come from?
Earnings per share at Lu Thai Textile grew −4.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lu Thai Textile
How large is the market capitalisation of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The market capitalisation of Lu Thai Textile is HK$3.6B (≈ $462M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lu Thai Textile is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
Earnings per share at Lu Thai Textile are HK$0.6900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The dividend yield of Lu Thai Textile is 5.6% (payout 36.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The net margin of Lu Thai Textile is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lu Thai Textile is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lu Thai Textile is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
The operating margin of Lu Thai Textile is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
Revenue at Lu Thai Textile is growing −6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lu Thai Textile (200726)?
Earnings per share at Lu Thai Textile are growing −35.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lu Thai Textile (200726) carry?
The net debt of Lu Thai Textile is HK$791M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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