Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Tian Chang Group Holdings HK$0.77, price HK$0.48, upside +62.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2700 – HK$0.5138 · fair‑value band HK$0.6100 – HK$1.07 · the HK$0.4750 price screens below the HK$0.7700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Tian Chang Group Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in manufacturing and sales of electronic cigarettes; medical consumable; and integrated plastic solutions in Hong Kong and in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Integrated Plastic Solutions, E-cigarettes Products, and Medical Consumable Products.
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Tian Chang Group Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in manufacturing and sales of electronic cigarettes; medical consumable; and integrated plastic solutions in Hong Kong and in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Integrated Plastic Solutions, E-cigarettes Products, and Medical Consumable Products. The Integrated Plastic Solutions segment designs, manufactures, and fabricates plastic injection moulds and plastic components, such as printer, copier, and air-conditioner parts; breathable office chair backs and accessories; automobile components, such as engine covers and dashboards; routers; camera and mobile power banks; and PET products. The E- cigarettes Products segment engages in the manufacture and sale of disposable and refillable e-cigarettes, battery rods, clearomisers, liquidpods, and heated tobacco devices as an original equipment manufacturer. The Medical Consumable Products segment engages in manufacturing and sales of medical consumable products. In addition, it also manufactures medica face masks and personal protective equipment products. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182) currently trades at HK$0.4750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.7700, implying the stock looks roughly 38.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$1.01 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.4750 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.1400, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.6100 (bear) to HK$1.07 (bull), the price of HK$0.4750 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Tian Chang Group Holdings reported revenue of HK$519M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −17.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$14.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$295M (≈ $37.5M) · P/S ratio 0.64 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin −2.8% · Return on equity −4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin −17.9% · Revenue (TTM) HK$438M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 62%, 2182 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.6100Fair Value HK$0.7700Bull HK$1.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.2% (2020) → −5.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.2% a year for the price.
Compare Tian Chang Group Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+62.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−8.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−17.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−31.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tian Chang Group Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2182
Frequently asked questions
Is Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.7700 versus a price of HK$0.4750, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2182?
Our model-based fair value for Tian Chang Group Holdings is HK$0.7700 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.4750.
What is the quality score of 2182?
Tian Chang Group Holdings has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.7700 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.6100, optimistic scenario HK$1.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tian Chang Group Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.7700, about +62% upside versus a price of HK$0.4750 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.6100, optimistic scenario HK$1.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
Tian Chang Group Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$438M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Tian Chang Group Holdings pay a dividend?
Tian Chang Group Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tian Chang Group Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -19.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2182 use?
Our models discount Tian Chang Group Holdings at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tian Chang Group Holdings that is -19.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tian Chang Group Holdings grew -8.0 % a year. The price currently implies -19.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tian Chang Group Holdings (-19.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.95 %: that much free cash flow Tian Chang Group Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tian Chang Group Holdings it is HK$0.7700 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.4750. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tian Chang Group Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2182 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.4750, fair value HK$0.7700, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2182?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.4750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.7700). For Tian Chang Group Holdings the two are HK$0.2950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tian Chang Group Holdings worth?
The market values Tian Chang Group Holdings at about HK$295M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.4750; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.7700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2182?
Our models span a range for Tian Chang Group Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.6100, base HK$0.7700, optimistic HK$1.07 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.4750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tian Chang Group Holdings (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −4.9%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2182 from its 52-week high?
Tian Chang Group Holdings trades at HK$0.4750, about 2% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4850 and 58% above the low of HK$0.3000 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.7700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tian Chang Group Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tian Chang Group Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.4750, calculated fair value HK$0.7700 (+62%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2182 calculated?
We run Tian Chang Group Holdings through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.7700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Tian Chang Group Holdings currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.4750. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.7700, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tian Chang Group Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.6100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Tian Chang Group Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The market capitalisation of Tian Chang Group Holdings is HK$295M (≈ $37.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tian Chang Group Holdings is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The dividend yield of Tian Chang Group Holdings is 3.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The net margin of Tian Chang Group Holdings is −2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tian Chang Group Holdings is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tian Chang Group Holdings is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
The operating margin of Tian Chang Group Holdings is −17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
Revenue at Tian Chang Group Holdings is growing −31.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −23.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182)?
Earnings per share at Tian Chang Group Holdings are growing −95.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tian Chang Group Holdings (2182) hold?
Tian Chang Group Holdings holds more cash than debt, HK$126M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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