Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd (2208) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$42.0B (≈ $5.4B) · ISIN CNE100000PP1

What is Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd really worth?

XG Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd 2208 · HK

PriceHK$9.12

Fair ValueHK$13.86

Upside+52.1%

Quality48/100

Below-average quality, trading 34% below our fair value of HK$13.86.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd is HK$13.86 per share against a price of HK$9.12, so the fair value sits 52% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Ranks above peers (10/14)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!Narrow moat 31/100

!Weak on past: 29 out of 100

For context

·2.52% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range HK$9.84 – HK$18.63

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$13.72 to HK$13.86 (+1.0%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −15.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range (HK$9.84 to HK$18.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.55 – HK$17.83 · fair‑value band HK$9.84 – HK$18.63 · the HK$9.12 price screens below the HK$13.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd (2208) currently trades at HK$9.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.86, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$16.20 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$9.12 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$3.34, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$79.0B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue grew 63.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at HK$22.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$9.84 (bear case) to HK$18.63 (bull case); at HK$9.12, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at 52%, 2208 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.3436 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Residual Income best evidence HK$8.28 HK$8.61 HK$8.92 76

Owner Earnings — — HK$1.16 73

EPV HK$2.72 HK$3.89 HK$4.91 73

All 17 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings — — HK$1.16 73

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$4.51 HK$27.45 HK$38.28 63

Lynch FV HK$7.85 HK$11.22 HK$14.58 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$7.85 HK$11.22 HK$14.58 57

EPV HK$2.72 HK$3.89 HK$4.91 73

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$1.90 HK$3.96 HK$6.27 66

DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.90 HK$3.34 HK$4.15 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$10.45 HK$13.93 HK$17.41 63

P/S Multiple HK$8.46 HK$11.28 HK$14.09 58

P/B Multiple HK$8.46 HK$11.28 HK$14.09 55

EV/EBIT HK$8.04 HK$12.15 HK$16.25 65

EV/EBITDA HK$14.70 HK$21.03 HK$27.36 67

EV/Revenue HK$4.51 HK$8.28 HK$12.05 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$5.19 HK$6.96 HK$10.39 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income best evidence HK$8.28 HK$8.61 HK$8.92 76

ROIC Compounder HK$2.72 HK$3.89 HK$4.91 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$11.34 HK$16.20 HK$21.07 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$16.20) versus Dividend Discount (HK$3.34). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.1 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 0.46 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.7337 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1

Dividend yield 2.5% payout 31.4%

Net margin 3.8% FY2025

Return on equity 7.4% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% avg 5y

Operating margin 8.3% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$79.0B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +63.5% 3y avg +16.3%

EPS growth (YoY) +61.0%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow −HK$3.5B FY2025

Net debt HK$22.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 24

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 66

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 16

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 28

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 68

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 45

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 23

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 26

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Goldwind Science&Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides wind power solutions in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Wind Turbine Generator Manufacturing and Sale, Wind Power Services, Wind Farm Development, and Others. The company engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of wind turbine generators and component; investment, development, sale, and operation of wind farms, which consists of wind power generation services through its wind farms, as well as offers technical services; and development and operation of water treatment plants. it also offers wind power construction, warranty, and asset management services. In addition, the company engages in the supply of wind power equipment and accessories; development and operation of solar power generation projects; energy storage business; and financial leasing business. The company was formerly known as Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. Goldwind Science&Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 73.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 50.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 38/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$73.0B

Latest YoY

+28.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+16.3%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+5.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+31.2%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +1.4% (approximate, leans on 2025) · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−1.1%

Dividend yield2.5%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −1.1% vs 10Y −1.0%, steady

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8.2% (2020) → 5.5% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop94% (2012) · in HKD

⚠ Rate leans on 2025: that final year sits 63% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted

Revenue +9.6%/yr

FY21 50.6B CNY

FY22 46.4B CNY

FY23 50.5B CNY

FY24 56.7B CNY

FY25 73.0B CNY

Net income −7.1%/yr

FY21 3.7B CNY

FY22 2.4B CNY

FY23 1.3B CNY

FY24 1.9B CNY

FY25 2.8B CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −4.0 % p.a.

Revenue per share +9.0 %

of which total revenue +10.4 % · buybacks/dilution −1.3 %

EBIT margin −8.9 %

Tax rate −2.0 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$13.86 +34%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2208.HK

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 792 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median

Fair Value upside −36% · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median

Return on assets 2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median

Revenue growth 64% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median

Debt / equity 0.65× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.97× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 7.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

PEG 0.88× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 0

FUTURE100 · sector 21

PAST29 · sector 28

HEALTH68 · sector 96

DIVIDEND50 · sector 27

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd (2208) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.86 versus a price of HK$9.12, about +52% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 2208?

Our model-based fair value for Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd is HK$13.86 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.12.

What is the quality score of 2208?

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd (2208)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$13.86 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.84, optimistic scenario HK$18.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$13.86, about +52% upside versus a price of HK$9.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.84, optimistic scenario HK$18.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd (2208)?

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$79.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2208?

The net profit margin of Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.52% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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